Cobra's Market View

Tutti wrote:

Cobra wrote: Dude, at this rate we'll see 3,000 by the close

3000 is unlikely without QEx

Junior Buffett wrote:

Cobra wrote: No rate hike, probably forever.

sell the kidneys to go long then??

But jokes apart, market should very quickly realize that if FED is chicken to increase rate after doing so much for last 8 years and economy is still in this pathetic condition that can not take 0.25 interest rate hike...how bad the ground realities are? and is there anything FED can do now to save this junk economy? even after putting more money?? This thinking should kick in sooner than later and market will see blood bath...waiting for the day..

No rate hike forever doesn't mean stock market would go up forever.

Cobra wrote:

Tutti wrote:

Cobra wrote: Dude, at this rate we'll see 3,000 by the close

3000 is unlikely without QEx

Ummm, I was kidding Obviously, we'll see it by tomorrows open

If Dalio (link below) is right, we are getting QE before we get a big rate hike.

Cobra wrote:

Tutti wrote:

Cobra wrote: Dude, at this rate we'll see 3,000 by the close

3000 is unlikely without QEx

Cobra how about a bet, that we will have 3000 in 2018 and there after bear market will start?

Bet for 1 beer for needings

marcueus wrote:

Cobra wrote:

Tutti wrote:

Cobra wrote: Dude, at this rate we'll see 3,000 by the close

3000 is unlikely without QEx

Cobra how about a bet, that we will have 3000 in 2018 and there after bear market will start?

Bet for 1 beer for needings

I said 3000 is unlikely without QEx. If there's QEx, then who knows what would happen, although I still doubt 3000. So the bet should be without QEx, you bet SPX 3000 at year 2018. I'll sure think it's impossible.

MA 377 at SPX 2014 and weekly MA 75 at 2023. I'll show a long term chart later to explain the importance of these MAs, but these resistances are quite something.

Buying 100 OCT SPY $201 Puts at $1.67.
Typically, it's not good to buy ANY option near the close of day.

well, guess that's it for today. Friday tomorrow has been a little bit bear friendly. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

uempel wrote:MA 377 at SPX 2014 and weekly MA 75 at 2023. I'll show a long term chart later to explain the importance of these MAs, but these resistances are quite something.

A.png

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with crazy short squeeze and madness of buying may not hold any resistance...today feels like we have reverse the clock to 2014..

uempel wrote:MA 377 at SPX 2014 and weekly MA 75 at 2023. I'll show a long term chart later to explain the importance of these MAs, but these resistances are quite something.

The attachment A.png is no longer available

The attachment B.png is no longer available

Long term chart shows importance of MA 377 (today at SPX 2014) and weekly MA 75 (today at 2023).

Gotta look at the big picture- Fed QE is being undone by Developing economies as they 1. dump us treasuries because the rainyday is here. 2. Scramble to pay off dollar denominated loans. Fed can't print enough to offset and they can't make the trade wars worse. I mean who you gonna bet on in a street fight, Aunt Janet or Koroda San, well never mind that is just a bad visual.

So my vote is for negative interest rates as pushed by the chief dove in his dot plot last month and in his speech this morning.

Junior Buffett wrote:

uempel wrote:MA 377 at SPX 2014 and weekly MA 75 at 2023. I'll show a long term chart later to explain the importance of these MAs, but these resistances are quite something.

A.png

B.png

with crazy short squeeze and madness of buying may not hold any resistance...today feels like we have reverse the clock to 2014..

Nothing is crazy. Perhaps the breakdown to SPX 1867 was only a dud. GS says that the earnings of US companies will surprise to the upside - thanks to lower oil costs. Nothing crazy here.

VIX hammer??

AA initial response to eps:
down -4% after hours……......... down -5%............

So if Goldman is right that cheep oil will reduce costs how does that help the overall market as all the US energy producers are going to show vastly lower profits. Not arguing with then, just saying I would use the term less bad.

Check your lottery numbers.

Well Vix got to my target n some intraday. Question now is which way from here? I think the Dax is about to roll over from here....someone on here other day mentioned correlation... If so and I am correct then that may be clue

Al_Dente wrote:If this isn’t a squeeze, I don’t know what is
ALL SQUEEZES EXHAUST EVENTUALLY, when the bears finish covering
$201.84 is the 9/17 SPY high
The blue box target is 203.31 from the inverse H&S (FWIW)

108five min.png.png

After hours AA earnings should impact the market
Consensus expects lower, so they should be able to beat [?]
EPS is top chart; Revenue is bottom chart

108aa epa.png.png

108 aa rev.png.png

@al_dente.
Looks like ZWEIG BREADTH THRUST indicator has been triggered today