05/12/2016 Live Update

[BullBear52x]

I can smell it.

[Cobra]

test ema20, should be some buyers here. the problem is close is very near.

[fehro]

61.8 ?no
These inverted could trigger something explosive move

yes explosive as 2128 by next Fri. OEW.. for the uber bull.

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:50 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/05 ... ay-update/

[BullBear52x]

out @ 60, Peace!

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. Friday tomorrow has been bull friendly, thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[BullBear52x]

Chart for the road: A close under 5 dma is bearish bias, I will lean on more down than up with the chart like this. Peace!

[daytradingES]

8:08 AM 5/13/2016
barcharts:
MARKET COMMENTS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 -0.21%) this morning are down -5.75 points (0.28%). The S&P 500 on Thursday closed little changed: S&P 500 -0.02%, Dow Jones +0.05%, Nasdaq -0.42%. Bullish factors included (1) strength in energy producers after crude oil rose to a 6-1/4 month high, and (2) a possible increase in M&A activity after Monsanto jumped 8% when people familiar with the matter said Bayer AG is exploring a potential bid for Monsanto. Bearish factors included (1) the unexpected increase in U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims by +20,000 to 294,000, more than expectations of -4,000 to 270,000 and the highest in 14-1/4 months, and (2) weakness in technology stocks after Apple dropped over 2% to a 23-month low when the Nikkei reported that shipments of Taiwan Semiconductor iPhone chips will likely fall to 70%-80% of second half of 2015 levels.

June 10-year T-note prices (ZNM16 +0.17%) this morning are up +6 ticks. Jun T-notes Thursday closed lower: TYM6 -10.00, FVM6 -7.00. Bearish factors included (1) hawkish comments from Boston Fed President Rosengren who said that recent economic data warrants continued gradual Fed interest rate increases, and (2) weak demand for the Treasury's $15 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.19, below the 12-auction average of 2.35.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) this morning is up +0.213 (+0.23%) at a 2-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0029 (-0.25%) at a 2-week low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.08 (-0.07%). The dollar index on Thursday closed higher: Dollar Index +0.327 (+0.35%), EUR/USD -0.0049 (-0.43%), USD/JPY +0.61 (+0.56%). Bullish factors included (1) weakness in EUR/USD after Eurozone Mar industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of no change, and (2) comments from Boston Fed President Rosengren who said that recent economic data warrants continued gradual Fed interest rate increases.

June WTI crude oil (CLM16 -1.03%) this morning is down -70 cents (-1.50%). June gasoline (RBM16 -1.31%) is down -0.0275 (-1.74%). Jun crude oil and gasoline on Thursday settled mixed with Jun crude at a 6-1/4 month high: CLM6 +0.16 (+0.35%), RBM6 -0.0038 (-0.24%). Bullish factors included (1) positive carryover from Wednesday's EIA data that showed U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly fell -3.4 million bbl, and (2) the action by the IEA to cut its global crude oil surplus estimate for the first half of 2016 to 1.3 million bpd from 1.5 million bpd forecast last month, citing robust demand in India and other emerging markets. Bearish factors included (1) a stronger dollar, and (2) signs that Canadian oil-sands production is coming back online after Endbridge and Canadian Natural Resources said that they restored normal oil production rates after wildfires forced them to shut operations.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/13/2016
US 0830 ET Apr retail sales expected +0.8%, +0.5 ex-autos, and +0.3% ex-autos and gas; Mar -0.3%, +0.2% ex-autos, and +0.1% ex-autos and gas.
0830 ET Apr PPI final demand expected +0.3% m/m and +0.2% y/y, Mar -0.1% m/m and -0.1% y/y. Apr PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Mar -0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y.
1000 ET Mar business inventories expected +0.2%, Feb -0.1%.
1000 ET Preliminary U.S. May University of Michigan consumer sentiment expected +0.5 to 89.5, Apr -2.0 to 89.0.
1600 ET San Francisco Fed President John Williams delivers a speech to the Sacramento Economic Forum.
JPN 0030 ET Japan Mar tertiary industry index expected -0.1% m/m, Feb -0.1% m/m.
GER 0200 ET Revised German CPI (EU harmonized), preliminary -0.3% m/m and -0.1% y/y.
0200 ET German Q1 GDP expected +0.6% q/q and +1.5% y/y, Q4 +0.3% q/q and +1.3% y/y.
EUR 0200 ET Eurozone Apr new car registrations, Mar +6.0% y/y.
0200 ET Revised Eurozone Q1 GDP, preliminary +0.6% q/q and +1.6% y/y.
UK 0430 ET UK mar construction output expected -3.2% m/m and -2.7% y/y, Feb -0.3% m/m and +0.3% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR

[daytradingES]

retail sales +1.3%
-----
Retail Sales
Released On 5/13/2016 8:30:00 AM For Apr, 2016
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Retail Sales - M/M change -0.3 % -0.3 % 0.9 % 0.4 % to 1.2 % 1.3 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.3 % to 0.8 % 0.8 %
Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.2 % to 0.4 % 0.6 %

Highlights
The consumer snapped back to life in April, driving retail sales 1.3 percent higher to beat Econoday's consensus by 4 tenths and the high estimate by 1 tenth. Gains are spread throughout most of the report.

Autos are the key component, up a sharp 3.2 percent to reverse the prior month's decline. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.8 percent.

Sales at gasoline stations, boosted by higher prices, also contributed strongly, up 2.2 percent in the month. But even excluding both autos and gasoline, sales still rose 0.6 percent for the third straight gain, two of which are very strong.

Apparel was a big contributor in April along with nonstore retailers and with restaurants also showing a gain. The only component in contraction was building materials & garden equipment which hints at a little cooling for what has been very solid residential investment.

Year-on-year rates all improved though total sales remain very soft at 3.0 percent. Auto sales, pulled down by tough comparisons with very strong sales this time last year, are up only 3.1 percent on the year. But other components show strength with the ex-auto ex-gas rate at a healthy 4.4 percent for a 5 tenths gain in the month.