10/14/2011 Intraday Watering

[Cobra]

rebound to OR low now as resistance, let's see.

[agnosia]

looks like a bear flag on /es 5 min chart.

[BullBear52x]

Bullbear, that would be quite exciting if the market crashes like it did in 2008. Parabolic moves in inverse ETFs, I'd go balls deep FAZ.

LOL, I will tone that one down, I traded FAZ long before last reverse splits, learned the hard way. FAS/FAZ or TNA/TZA best pair trade if you are fast.

[pady]

Cobra,

'duh' question - In your new site, I dont seem to find the daily market outlook link. In the top menu, I dont seem to get it.

Thanks

[pablorynx]

We are getting a little stretched to the upside but like I said months ago buy goog, aapl, and short oil and get rich! Now the oil trade is over.

Congrats! you are on the nose again. what's in the plate today?

Hello,

What would you think about VIX Nov. calls? Any idea? It seems to be at the lower BB, could it be a nice ride up from here to November?
Thanks guys

I would think that a view on vol going up, probably better off with just being long vix (or VXX/VXZ). the problem is that even if vol goes up, the vol of vol might get hammered, making it hard to make money on the vix move. Call spreads might be the way to go on this one.

[STC]

Cobra, where do you think QQQ resistance is? Does it look like it's going to galaxy far away?

[silicon_beaver]

Annoying fake p-bat on SPY chart.

[pady]

One last push past today's high to complete 5 waves ? Also, see negative divergences showing up.

[Unique]

Bear flag trying break down...ZZZZ

My AAPL stuck in retangle pattern...no fun... damn fridays...always like this

[BigChief]

My TOS keeps freezin up, usually happens during big swings, are the bears coming out of their caves?

[BullBear52x]

BullBear52x,

The market is quite strong. I think everyone moves money back in US.
I'm glad that I only sold Oct 14 calls on both SPY & IWM.
I don't have plan to add new positions so far.

as long as market manage to trade above 5dma trend is up per my gauge. day trade or counter trend move is different story. right now trend is Up and buy dips. market can stay over sold longer than .........(everyone knows the last wording)

This is the area I need help from you and others. I'm lost. I don't know what kind of trader I'm now. I'm between day trader & swing trader.
However, most of my profits are from value investing.

No one know yourself then your own self. tough call man, something to do with level of your hormone, take me years to tune in just right, still working on it.

[Mr. BachNut]

On the cusp?

Nothing new to say really. Trend is up and market is overbought.
If bear market rules apply, resistances should hold and there should be a turn (or extended consolidation) to clear the overbought condition.
However, things look good. Shorts have been cleared. Money is being put to work up here.
With VIX dropping and if certain signals hit (like the Zweig Breadth Thrust signal) more money can be drawn in (a buying panic perhaps?). Strength into the close today (folks holding over the weekend rather than taking profits up here) if it happens would also seem bullish.
Another thing to consider is that performance through October can weigh heavily in determining fund manager bonuses. As we are now up versus last October, I can imagine dry powder being used to hold things up if not have a sprint to a good finish.
So, I am waiting and watching at the moment.

I am net long with a residual trapped short, which looks like it will be closed for a loss if a turn doesn't materialize.
Looking to add long on pull back if it looks like it is just that.
Max Pain on the SPY for next week is currently at 119.

[jarbo456]

My TOS keeps freezin up, usually happens during big swings, are the bears coming out of their caves?

yeah it's annoying. i've had to shut down some charts..

i need to move brokers. -_-

[EFA]

We are getting a little stretched to the upside but like I said months ago buy goog, aapl, and short oil and get rich! Now the oil trade is over.

Congrats! you are on the nose again. what's in the plate today?

Hello,

What would you think about VIX Nov. calls? Any idea? It seems to be at the lower BB, could it be a nice ride up from here to November?
Thanks guys

I would think that a view on vol going up, probably better off with just being long vix (or VXX/VXZ). the problem is that even if vol goes up, the vol of vol might get hammered, making it hard to make money on the vix move. Call spreads might be the way to go on this one.

You mean a bull call spread or a bull put spread? Thanks

[waverider]

EUR/USD just broke down from a descending triangle then slide back into the pattern... lol. Looks like it's breaking down, lower lows and lower highs.

[Mr. BachNut]

PAGING MR. BACHNUT…Per yr request yest.
All we are doing with the internals, is taking SPY, and lifting the kimono, just for a peek
We glance at DOLLAR very important for many reasons, let’s just remember a big one: the entire rally last 2 yrs was fueled by a very depressed dollar, so we want to see if dollar is trending down (supporting a spy rally) or trending up (supporting the bear), not as impt minute by minute, but we like to obsess….. On my internals charts I use either UUP in red (up red UUP means red bear spy), or UDN in green (up green UDN means bull spy).

We focus on $NYADV advancing stocks and $NYDEC declining stocks, as they are a pure view of how many stocks may be supporting the rally/decline. We watch for key signals, like a negative divergence/non-confirmation at a SPY high.
EG: If advancing issues are, say 2200, and spy makes higher high while advancing issues wane to 1900, that tells us that 300 stocks just dropped out of the nyadv data, and went either unchanged or negative…. just helps us see a bit of weakness developing, if stocks start dropping out of the bull party….(also, $NAADV/$NADEC tells us similar about NASDAQ)

We glance at $TICK, the most fickle of the internals, as it can get very seismic. I “filter out the noise” quite a bit, by showing it on 5 min, with an “area” view (the chunks of red and green drawn by stockcharts.com). This means if tick hit +1300 but CLOSED at +700, I will only see the +700 register on the 5 min…. just makes it a bit less hyperactive, and helps us see valuable trendlines developing sometimes.

We check $VIX for key levels and slope (generally vix up = spy down, and inverse). There is a big-brain VIX guy on this board, maybe cougar (?), watch him 4 VIX clues, not much chatter but killer charts

Will be trying to blab less and let the pure internals speak more. So on my chart updates, my thick green lines = bull, and thick red lines=bear…. SERIOUSLY, HARD CORE SIMPLE

Perhaps u noticed the weakness in spy after big fancy gap open today. Let’s just lift the kimono then
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =244976875

Great. Got it. Thank you.

[Unique]

For people talking about EUR/USD, wanna post some charts?

Not everyone have forex charts...

[agnosia]

EUR/USD just broke down from a descending triangle then slide back into the pattern... lol. Looks like it's breaking down, lower lows and lower highs.

could be a bull flag after such big move..

[BullBear52x]

For people talking about EUR/USD, wanna post some charts?

Not everyone have forex charts...

[waverider]

For people talking about EUR/USD, wanna post some charts?

Not everyone have forex charts...

I don't trade forex, but Petsamo says you can watch here: http://www.livecharts.co.uk/ForexCharts/eurusd.php