Cobra's Market View

BullTart wrote:Ok, I am now hanging out in Trader VIX.

VIX usually bottoms in the week before Christmas due to seasonality / distribution / contango chenanigans.

Today is 12/22 , Thursday. Christmas is on the weekend. This is a good time to get in on some long VIX positions.

Thanks for the information, I bought a few TVIX at 26.70 this morning, going to hold it for a while.

Updates

Copper http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/copper_22.html
Crude http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/crude_22.html

gabor wrote:

Cobra wrote:OK, a little about my experiences, this hour is very important for bulls, must be a green candle, otherwise most likely the up momentum is all gone, we shall see at least consolidation thereafter. Just to test my theory, let's see. You know I like to announce my experiment publicly so that I have no choice but keep on doing my experiment.

Do you mean the hour from 11:12 EST every day?

not everyday, just today, this particular case.

Some of you may be familiar with my system while many are not, but FWIW, I'm getting a strong short signal which is valid on the close today. Still a possibility that this could change...

Updates

Gold http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/gold_22.html
Silver http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/silver_22.html

Updates

Dollar http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/dollar_22.html
30-Year http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/30y_22.html

cougar wrote:VIX getting close to the top of the Opening Range,30 min = 21.13

Cougar: vix low on day 20.34
Your yellow envelopes (yest) were SPOT ON to the penny, unbelievable


Yo cougie, I’d like u to meet Sadie (“I’m at work” advisory/parental advisory) ….. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CvPakc2s8

BullBear52x wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:PAGING Baron von Patience
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOByH_iO ... re=related

Thanks Dr. Al, more music pls, I got lots of time, half way into my holy day mood, not too aggressive here, patience? I need to have more of it.

Holy Day???

Bulls keep the faith, pray Santa ghost will come and rescue them

I'll share this tidbit from another blog (won't post link to it in respect to Cobra's blog) called Vix and More.

This was back on 12/22/2010 (exactly one year ago):

"Well, consider that in five of the last eight years, the annual low in the VIX fell during the week leading up to Christmas. Last year, some may recall that the VIX made its annual low on Christmas Eve. Back in 2004, the VIX had its low for the year on December 23rd; and in both 2003 and 2006, the VIX bottomed out for the year on December 18th. Today’s low makes it five pre-Christmas bottoms in eight years."

Two trading days after that post, VIX shot up 18%.

Now, keep in mind that this is not foolproof and guaranteed. You have to look at other indicators. I did. I looked at the RSI and it is at scarily low levels, as in levels that have only occurred around 7 times in the past 4 years. So it's pretty damn low. Combined with seasonality, this is a long VIX play I will take on right here.

Attention skiers...

EU-ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/eu-es_22.html

Precipice ahead.

Another 1 min intraday, just to show TNX going bonkers bull spy
Spy is ignoring it at the moment; NYADV ignoring it and droping UNDER our magic number 2000
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15


PAGING Baron von Softie
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMsiGMKH ... re=related

They are buying Jan & Feb VIX futures.

Al_Dente wrote:Another 1 min intraday, just to show TNX going bonkers bull spy
Spy is ignoring it at the moment; NYADV ignoring it and droping UNDER our magic number 2000
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15


PAGING Baron von Softie
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMsiGMKH ... re=related

Internals, look at VIX and TNX what a mess at this moment.

Waiting Room Music

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwXyKUxMskw

Thrill Is Gone. Done slow and easy.

BullTart wrote:I'll share this tidbit from another blog (won't post link to it in respect to Cobra's blog) called Vix and More.
This was back on 12/22/2010 (exactly one year ago):
"Well, consider that in five of the last eight years, the annual low in the VIX fell during the week leading up to Christmas. Last year, some may recall that the VIX made its annual low on Christmas Eve. Back in 2004, the VIX had its low for the year on December 23rd; and in both 2003 and 2006, the VIX bottomed out for the year on December 18th. Today’s low makes it five pre-Christmas bottoms in eight years."
Two trading days after that post, VIX shot up 18%.
Now, keep in mind that this is not foolproof and guaranteed. You have to look at other indicators. I did. I looked at the RSI and it is at scarily low levels, as in levels that have only occurred around 7 times in the past 4 years. So it's pretty damn low. Combined with seasonality, this is a long VIX play I will take on right here.

That is a VERY WELL RESPECTED blog site. I used to follow him when he posted daily. Thanks

I'm still not doing much..The R/RW is not worth the effort..I may wait until the last 2 days of the yr. and the first 3 days of next yr.The mkt will be closed early tomorrow and closed on mon.Of course I can always change my mind for a quick one. Lets see.

BullTart wrote:I'll share this tidbit from another blog (won't post link to it in respect to Cobra's blog) called Vix and More.

This was back on 12/22/2010 (exactly one year ago):

"Well, consider that in five of the last eight years, the annual low in the VIX fell during the week leading up to Christmas. Last year, some may recall that the VIX made its annual low on Christmas Eve. Back in 2004, the VIX had its low for the year on December 23rd; and in both 2003 and 2006, the VIX bottomed out for the year on December 18th. Today’s low makes it five pre-Christmas bottoms in eight years."

Two trading days after that post, VIX shot up 18%.

Now, keep in mind that this is not foolproof and guaranteed. You have to look at other indicators. I did. I looked at the RSI and it is at scarily low levels, as in levels that have only occurred around 7 times in the past 4 years. So it's pretty damn low. Combined with seasonality, this is a long VIX play I will take on right here.

Thanks I know him. It's a good analysis.

99er wrote:Attention skiers...

EU-ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/eu-es_22.html

Precipice ahead.

Al_Dente wrote:

cougar wrote:VIX getting close to the top of the Opening Range,30 min = 21.13

Cougar: vix low on day 20.34
Your yellow envelopes (yest) were SPOT ON to the penny, unbelievable


Yo cougie, I’d like u to meet Sadie (“I’m at work” advisory/parental advisory) ….. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6CvPakc2s8

Al: Nice video!…I think it should be “parental guidance”… where daddy should explain to little Jimmy everything about the benefits of multicultural diversity!
We are now going through an “intraday whipsaw”. Adult prudence suggested!

Hey! it's only the fifth time this time got to mean something LOL