09/15/2012 Weekend Update

[TradingJackal]

Hello Cobra,

Looks like the software does not use the latest version of BBCode. I am no expert, but I was trying to strike out some text I had written earlier. From the BBCode website, [s]text[/s] should work. But it did not work in preview and I was able to see the tags. Just an FYI. Also, it is pretty cool that you can inline youtube videos directly in the page instead of via a URL. Of course, some may consider that a nuisance!

[Cobra]

Futures feels still have another leg up left at least.

[Cobra]

Hello Cobra,

Looks like the software does not use the latest version of BBCode. I am no expert, but I was trying to strike out some text I had written earlier. From the BBCode website, [s]text[/s] should work. But it did not work in preview and I was able to see the tags. Just an FYI. Also, it is pretty cool that you can inline youtube videos directly in the page instead of via a URL. Of course, some may consider that a nuisance!

It's not the latest PHPBB, but I doubt whether the latest version supports the latest BBCode.

I know we need a better broad software. The much better one I know is Discuz.com but there's no formal English version. VBulletin simply is not good enough.

[Cobra]

Random and idle weekend thoughts and speculations:

1) Something bad may be in the works. There is a saying that nothing happens in Washington by accident. Why would the central banker go all in with: economic growth positive albeit muddling, financial markets liquid, no significant signs of deflation, gas and grain quotes at the highs and the Euro central banker already having stepped up to do what it takes and all a few weeks before the election? Perhaps the bad employment number explains it all, but the optics don't look good and don't look right. It may be that something is on deck, and the Fed needed to get things in place now. Maybe Greece is about to get its eviction notice. I don't know. My idle speculation is that there may be some interesting news ahead.

2) What does this have to do with the price of rice (and chicken) in China? The Chinese economy has been going soft and the leadership transition is in process (and a little weird at the moment). At the same time, inflation has been an issue as they have to print big time to maintain their currency peg to the $. Hitting China with QE to infinity is going to cause stress. I am not sure what is worse for them, unemployed workers or employed workers who cannot keep up with the price of food. They are going to have to respond.

3) We're gonna get a bubble in something. The recent record shows that the Fed punch bowl is not pulled until after the party has gotten out of hand. Without a fundamental pick-up in the broader economy or some deflationary event, the hot money at the margin is going to find a place to go. Need to watch where the crowd moves.

4) The Pain Trade is on. I know a number of asset managers who have been prudent and cautious given the risks and uncertainties surrounding Europe. Their allocations to cash have been on the high side. With the Mario and Ben one two punch and new equity highs, I have been hearing a different tune this weekend. They're gonna be putting money to work.

5) If this rally holds up into month/quarter end, the earnings season should be pretty dynamic. My sense is that we could see some deterioration in the numbers and guidance. I would say the bears may have a go in October except that we may still be in this good news is good news/bad news is good news market.

Sorry for the ramble on and I recognize some of the ideas above conflict with each other. Just day dreaming possibilities.

I agree, might be something bad we don't know but Fed is fully aware, otherwise why such a dramatic action despite the econ news are not really very bad.

[KeiZai]

Sorry one last forgot to post it earlier

[noob]

Futures feels still have another leg up left at least.

Europe might come back to bite the market this week. Last Thursday, Troika said Greece needs a third bailout. Report would move the market if it weren't for Mr Ben.

[daytradingES]

would wait til it clears $20.29
IB on nybot

[ClarkW]

SBUX looks like a decent short IMO. (NOT A RECOMMENDATION) Any thoughts?

[daytradingES]

Hi Cobra!

I wouldn't worry about the software. It works - so that's fine.
"Don't try to fix what ain't broke." . Charts and analysis are were the energy goes.

I think everyone appreciates all your hard work on the intra day analysis - I know I do.
And then you do all your other stuff weekly charts, Chinese version etc. etc.

My thought is to ease up on yourself and get more rest and relaxation.

You're doing a great job and its a great board!!!

[ClarkW]

Bespoke's Sector Snapshot http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2 ... pshot.html

[daytradingES]

SBUX looks like a decent short IMO. (NOT A RECOMMENDATION) Any thoughts?

I would wait until it closes below the gap. $49.60

[ClarkW]

SBUX looks like a decent short IMO. (NOT A RECOMMENDATION) Any thoughts?

I would wait until it closes below the gap. $49.60

Thanks daytradingES!

[ClarkW]

GDX:GLD has dropped back into the Keltner Channel (bottom panel). Has helped confirm a short-term reversal (EDIT: for GDX) lately...