Cobra's Market View

taggard wrote:any speculation as to why soros is one of the exceptions? thanks

More buddies in higher places.

Cobra, did you move that line just for me? Thank you!

Nothing special today on candles

This is not 100% accurate, so don't get pissed off at me if it does not yield a pullback just showing what I see...you decide whether to trade it or not...

...but SOX is saying it is heading for another leg down...

Two ending ascending wedges in a row...

TraderGirl wrote:SPY....?? 5 waves up??

The TSI support was broken...now could be backtesting...could mean a pullback is coming...wave 4?

remember 1551
A=C or 1=3

MrMiyagi wrote:

Cobra wrote:might still be another rebound before bears can have some hopes.

Cobra,
What would negate that MM down?

New high.

MrMiyagi wrote:

taggard wrote:any speculation as to why soros is one of the exceptions? thanks

More buddies in higher places.

have you followed him? i have watched him for 20 years and that is not my experience. certainly i could be wrong--but it's not my sense. at least in the context of the larger banks on wall street and hedge funds. certainly one could not be more connected than paulson. if you compare soros' gold trades over the last 2 years the timing (for the size of his holdings) is very decent--it's not hyper exact--but it takes large chunks out of the moves. as for control--he certainly does have an impact. but it's often not control at the start of his moves.

$SPX: Possible incipient impulsive up leg

SigmaEcho wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:SPY....?? 5 waves up??

The TSI support was broken...now could be backtesting...could mean a pullback is coming...wave 4?

remember 1551
A=C or 1=3

I remember, but it's possible we go higher...so I won't hold my breath thinking this is it...

the rebound was too sharp, so 100% MM target is no guarantee anymore, here's the updated evil plan.

taggard wrote:

MrMiyagi wrote:

taggard wrote:any speculation as to why soros is one of the exceptions? thanks

More buddies in higher places.

have you followed him? i have watched him for 20 years and that is not my experience. certainly i could be wrong--but it's not my sense. at least in the context of the larger banks on wall street and hedge funds. certainly one could not be more connected than paulson. if you compare soros' gold trades over the last 2 years the timing (for the size of his holdings) is very decent--it's not hyper exact--but it takes large chunks out of the moves. as for control--he certainly does have an impact. but it's often not control at the start of his moves.

hey's pseudo-contrarian; buys low and sells high, and is patient enough to make it work. when he sees a slow moving train wreck he gets out of the way, rather than being cute like most market participants who think they can get in and out at just the right time.

Oy, computer issues again
I identified and fixed the problems
[SAVE FOR LATER]

Dalio’s Bridgewater, America’s largest hedge fund, is where all the Ivy League grads want to work.

“Bridgewater… tends to attract—and look for—self-styled intellectuals and deep thinkers who like constructing arguments as much as they enjoy constructing portfolios … Undergrads at Harvard report that the scandal-free firm is more desirable than Goldman Sachs, previously the ne plus ultra for young grads on the make.”

“Bridgewater is a macroinvestor, meaning it analyzes big-picture economic trends, data, and market behavior to come up with ideas about how to profit off the movement of stocks, bonds, and currencies all over the world. The strategy appears to be working: Bridgewater’s main fund has returned 14 percent annually since 1991, with only one losing year—an astonishing record...For years, Goldman had the greatest cachet and mystique among this crowd. No longer. If you’re 22...'all your friends are skeptical of the banking industry.' ”

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... rdest.html

a

SPY...the last wave on the last two peaks lasted for a little while...until the MACD crosses, I will not be convinced we are going down....doesn't mean I wont be short before then...but that is when we will see some sort of confirmation...

Back in April of 2012..the 5th wave ended in an "ending diagonal", very choppy...doesn't mean we will get the same pattern, but something to think about...the good thing is is that we still have neg d on the TSI....

Also, the market normally gives you a second chance to short the market...even the flash crash bounced back before it headed down again.....

Al_Dente wrote:Oy, computer issues again
I identified and fixed the problems

computer problems.png

[SAVE FOR LATER]

Dalio’s Bridgewater, America’s largest hedge fund, is where all the Ivy League grads want to work.

“Bridgewater… tends to attract—and look for—self-styled intellectuals and deep thinkers who like constructing arguments as much as they enjoy constructing portfolios … Undergrads at Harvard report that the scandal-free firm is more desirable than Goldman Sachs, previously the ne plus ultra for young grads on the make.”

“Bridgewater is a macroinvestor, meaning it analyzes big-picture economic trends, data, and market behavior to come up with ideas about how to profit off the movement of stocks, bonds, and currencies all over the world. The strategy appears to be working: Bridgewater’s main fund has returned 14 percent annually since 1991, with only one losing year—an astonishing record...For years, Goldman had the greatest cachet and mystique among this crowd. No longer. If you’re 22...'all your friends are skeptical of the banking industry.' ”

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... rdest.html

I love those kitties.

hey's pseudo-contrarian; buys low and sells high, and is patient enough to make it work. when he sees a slow moving train wreck he gets out of the way, rather than being cute like most market participants who think they can get in and out at just the right time.[/quote]

i agree generally. but 2 points. (1) some trades such as the fabled pound trade--were fairly tightly timed. (2) why does he see this approach and others do not.

my take on this is that his childhood was extreme. so from a very early age he got used to the intuitive idea that anything could happen--or current events could invert. so in this sense he is less attached to the situation. while his writing has great stuff in it--it's also very tedious to read. he tends to focus on the idea of reflexivity in the markets--but it is my guess that this actually evolved around his experiences with people. During his childhood at various times he was put in extreme situations that could go either way and be life and death. being a child was in one sense an advantage (as adults foolishly think kids are clueless) but it also did not give him huge leverage. during these events a decision had to be made on limited evidence--and fast. (if you are interested you can find some in masquerade by tivadar soros (george's father). i think these moments had a huge impact on his later life. why that is--is yet another question as many made it though with little change in perception.

From Stocktiming...

$SPX: Another option could be an ED

TraderGirl wrote:From Stocktiming...

TG, can you post the link that is mentioned in there?

We should see some sort of pullback soon...how much, dk...but looking back, it's not common for price to sit outside the BBand for more than 3-4 days...