Difficult to assess the study's importance. Markets might have entered a new paradigm in 2012 so that this kind of data which worked 2000 - 2012 ain't working no more. It would be interesting to see how the system worked 1995 - 1999.
Bears are potentially not over in the bigger picture.
-D
Thanks for posting your work Denali92.
Happy to do so.... as that is the core of my approach.... though I had never looked at the extended period without a 10 min buy signal before.... definitely interesting......
depends on where breakdown happens, here's possible targets. triangle in theory means continuation, so should be a little bearish biased here but since nowadays bulls are really strong, so I'd like to give bulls a little more credit, and this is why I said bears may have 40% chances.
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I am afraid I can not help with 1995 - 1999 - there were 6 instances in 2012 21-Feb (lows in 2 days), 30-May (Major Top), 6-Jul (Major Top), 10-Sep (Major top at end of week), 28-Nov (first correction since the major Nov low) and Dec 2012 - again prior to FOMC like September - just did not major top.... There were 5 instances in both 2010 and 2011 and NO instances in 2009.... so it is occurring fairly consistently... and I do think that is a hallmark of this bull market - rallies that occur for an extended period and convince everyone that we are never going down again....
I do think something changed in 2012 though.... as we definitely did not have the same type of corrections witnessed in 2010 and 2011.
-D
uempel wrote:Difficult to assess the study's importance. Markets might have entered a new paradigm in 2012 so that this kind of data which worked 2000 - 2012 ain't working no more. It would be interesting to see how the system worked 1995 - 1999.
hopefully it's a real breakdown. I have no idea. I'm still in shock that this market can pullback.
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It's a valid breakdown but bears need decisively break the green line below otherwise still the game is over.
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