Cobra's Market View

KeiZai wrote:

KeiZai wrote:XIV triangle or not

Nope but this one looks better

XIV-21-2.png

MrMiyagi wrote:

stlwater wrote:

Cobra wrote:

stlwater wrote:
I didn't realize you were hand picking. I can write code to back test a base/breakout scenario for stocks at or near 52 week highs. I should say, I will, because I read the article by the 5-min investor author and I liked his reasoning and I like the set-up. When I get it done I'll share what I find on the members board. I'll try to filter for lower volatility and strong trends. This could take a while, I haven't written code in Perl for some time.

My idea back test is:

have code to find perfect consolidation pattern after a strong up trend (not just a 52-week high, has to be a strong uptrend). I think this is the most difficult part.

have code to know the entry, stop loss and measured move target, so that we can know the gain loss ratio and know whether the trade is successful. Determine a strong trend is not so difficult but how to do the measured move is a big question.

then start from, see year 2000, have code to scan 8,000 stocks actively traded everyday, record each valid trade until today.

then we'll have the data.

I think it's a lot of work which I cannot afford to spend time on and I seriously doubt if the code can find the pattern as perfect as I hand picked.

Nothing is as good as an experienced human eye but there is a lot of subjectivity in that eye. If you can put into a formula something that represents what your eyes are looking for then it can be back-tested. I'll have to come up with a way of measuring the strength of the trend. There are any number of ways of filtering for this using indicators is probably the easiest. Once I've filtered for possible candidates I'll PM some of the results so you can "eye ball them" if they don't meet your criteria you can tell me, and I'll try to refine it down to ones that do. Once I have those, then identifying winners is matter of if that pick hitting or exceeded price targets without stopping out. Perhaps a half out at target approach? Any number of options are available. I'll pull stocks from SPX for the test, unless you think I should use some other type of filter for back-test candidates. Again, I'm not sure when I'll have time to work on it, it could take a while.

MrMiyagi wrote:Allright.. my brain is waking up and catching up..

uempel wrote:Paging TG and Al, can u use the info

KeiZai wrote:

MrMiyagi wrote:Allright.. my brain is waking up and catching up..

This one I see too

uempel wrote:Paging TG and Al, can u use the info

MrMiyagi wrote:Allright.. my brain is waking up and catching up..

Cobra wrote:so far weak rebound. but I'll give bulls a little more time.