Cobra's Market View

Weekly. 9 weeks now the ichi base/conversion are one in the same.That's just not natural. Market is messed up. Vote Cobra. glta

VXN is 12 vols from the p-bar at 9.66. Difficult to calculate how much a person can make playing that spread. A lot, I imagine.

The spike to 21.60 is a common bottoming occurrence for the Nas 100.

What's shocking is that the index is hardly down during this spike.

MrMiyagi wrote:

L_T wrote:So who is up for going long calls in USO?

January & February 27 calls have 34,000+ volume. There are a lot of Bear bets as well...

I only mention it because with a move down like this you know there will be one heck of a snap-back rally but it's anyone's guess when that will be.

MrMiyagi wrote:

L_T wrote:So who is up for going long calls in USO?

January & February 27 calls have 34,000+ volume. There are a lot of Bear bets as well...

This USO vix.Wouldn't short it.

L_T wrote:I only mention it because with a move down like this you know there will be one heck of a snap-back rally but it's anyone's guess when that will be.

.

I think that snap rally will come when few are expecting it, at this point not enough have been beheaded by OPEC.

gappy wrote:

MrMiyagi wrote:

L_T wrote:So who is up for going long calls in USO?

January & February 27 calls have 34,000+ volume. There are a lot of Bear bets as well...

This USO vix.

Capture.PNG

Wouldn't short it.

One thing needs to observe here that USO VIX and S&P VIX are not inverse ..current difference in both is unseen ,something gotta give..either USO VIX come down hard or S&P VIX sky rocket high to match the partner!

So, either Oil goes up from here or stock market crashes big time!

pop in the VIX.. up to 21.37

VIX daily ..

triangle, bias just a little up now, bulls need do more.

Couldn't agree more with Miyagi on CL. Watch the rig count.
It looks like we are getting ready for a crisis. The shale drillers have been borrowing a billion a year to keep going. With junk bonds blowing wide open the money won't be there. If the rig count starts dropping like a rock US production will fall fast. But, there is always a but, when China stops filling it's strategic reserves watch out below, because they are the marginal source of demand.

So watch the weekly rig count, the shipping report for VLCC rates by route and the two (at least there were two) weekly oil inventory reports.

The set up will be when nobody wants to talk about oil anymore and Huston real estate is taking a dive. I think the first tell will be when we start reading about commodity traders using VLCC's for storage. It is ridiculously cheep per barrel to have one anchored in the Gulf or in a bay in Scotland.

well, too bad, possible double top breakdown.

Trader's Almanac says Monday before triple witch up 9 of 13. But it doesn't say how many followed a down Friday. Maybe Denali will have something this weekend.

I could be a contrarian signal - I am feeling that way, as I was excited to get long today.... but now I am VERY cautious and will be waiting till next week or later


http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/12 ... ay-update/

The research is just too compelling to consider swing longs here for is usually the bounce in to the FOMC and Opex week.

-D

Trades with cats wrote:Couldn't agree more with Miyagi on CL. Watch the rig count.
It looks like we are getting ready for a crisis. The shale drillers have been borrowing a billion a year to keep going. With junk bonds blowing wide open the money won't be there. If the rig count starts dropping like a rock US production will fall fast. But, there is always a but, when China stops filling it's strategic reserves watch out below, because they are the marginal source of demand.
So watch the weekly rig count, the shipping report for VLCC rates by route and the two (at least there were two) weekly oil inventory reports.
The set up will be when nobody wants to talk about oil anymore and Huston real estate is taking a dive. I think the first tell will be when we start reading about commodity traders using VLCC's for storage. It is ridiculously cheep per barrel to have one anchored in the Gulf or in a bay in Scotland.

Posted this week on Cobra's overnight board:
"The number of shale rigs drilling in Eagle Ford/Texas has fallen by 16 to 190 since October.
The number of rigs in Bakken/North Dakota dropped by 10 to 188.
Junk bond debt issued by US oil and gas producers over the past decade is approximately $163 billion."
Single stocks: high debt-ratio stocks will either go bankrupt or more likely be taken over by the bigger guys with lower debt.

Do you have links to the “weekly rig count” and “shipping report for VLCC rates” and “weekly oil inventory reports”?
thank you

Check the research I just posted.... March 2014 was a great long entry near the close.... as was Dec 2001, Dec 2008 and Dec 2012 but otherwise, I am cautious....

-D

Trades with cats wrote:Trader's Almanac says Monday before triple witch up 9 of 13. But it doesn't say how many followed a down Friday. Maybe Denali will have something this weekend.

Al_Dente wrote:

Trades with cats wrote:
Do you have links to the “weekly rig count” and “shipping report for VLCC rates” and “weekly oil inventory reports”?
thank you

http://www.mrt.com/business/oil/Permian count bottom of page.

They are being rough on the bulls these days.

SPX possible support here.. if not.. lower cyan…. lower open gap 50d SMA.. for a nasty close.

MrMiyagi
did u see a p-bar on VIX few minutes ago?