03/25/2015 Live Update

[Out of Bounds]

I haven't seen cletus today. I hope he's OK. I assume he was still heavy on the bull side.

[ALdaytrade]

Black channel support is breaking, but there is so much (other) support in 2060/70 area - I can hardly believe it's going to be broken today

kde.png

So below that, where is the next black line?

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:50 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/03 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. Thursday tomorrow has been bull friendly. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[fehro]

…….

Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.
George Soros

... based on that quote.. I'd say top middle chart.. 200d.. LOL! .. the triangles / new highs seem to be the obvious.

Amazingly VIX is up against resistance.. SPX nearing the uptrend from Oct / Feb lows… you could see an sharp pop in the VIX.. which would lead a gap down .. and maybe below the next gap 2054-52.. for the uber bear.. but maybe that's too obvious…

[ALdaytrade]

…….

Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.
George Soros

... based on that quote.. I'd say top middle chart.. 200d.. LOL! .. the triangles / new highs seem to be the obvious.

Amazingly VIX is up against resistance.. SPX nearing the uptrend from Oct / Feb lows… you could see an sharp pop in the VIX.. which would lead a gap down .. and maybe below the next gap 2054-52.. for the uber bear.. but maybe that's too obvious…

I like that term, "uber bear!" Thank you, for the amazing charts!

[Al_Dente]

All FOMC gains erased
We closed right on support from the 3/16 gap
We should be able to bounce a bit here, before resuming down to test the early march lows

[Al_Dente]

Unreal
SPY coulda been a contender
Now it is up only a fraction on the YTD (year-to-date) %performance
There’s your buy-and-hold, ouch….

[gappy]

http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2015/03/c ... .html#more

aa.PNG

bb.PNG

[DellGriffith]

From what I wrote last week:

Do We Go Down or Do We Go Down?

Daily SPY:

If daily SPY gets a MACD bullish cross, its very unlikely to be #41 now. I have a set of rules to distinguish between "valid" crosses and crosses to avoid. This one will very likely be one to avoid. It will have an elevated chance of being a failure.

Another day or two of rally and we get an invalid MACD bullish cross and then yuk.

An invalid bullish cross means they occur pretty much right at a top (or a top occurs a day or two later). You buy them and just lose your ass because the market tanks.

So I see three options on the table, with rough odds:

1. Today is the end of wave B up of the ABC correction. SPY starts dropping tomorrow. This is the scenario where the BAD MACD bullish cross never happens. So we go DOWN. A decent chance of this.
2. SPY rallies into a BAD MACD bullish cross. These mostly occur near a top and longs get crushed. So we go DOWN. A pretty good chance of this.
3. SPY rallies into a BAD MACD bullish cross and it turns out its actually a valid cross and SPY keeps rallying. Statistically the odds are very low.

So basically, SPY is either going DOWN or it is going DOWN. (With a small chance of going up). This is surprisingly a fairly good spot to go short SPY.

That's my bias.

Translating the technical view into fundamentals, we just had an overreaction to the Fed comments. Nothing has really changed at all. We will wake up tomorrow and Europe will be moving towards stimulating their economy and the US will be moving away from stimulating their economy. People will continue to rebalance out of Euros (either by exchanging Euros for European stocks or dollars) and selling US stocks (to get into dollars or European stocks). This will continue until either the stimulus game changes or investors reach a new balance they are comfortable with.

So, it looks like I got one right! The MACD bullish cross occurred at a top and the market got hammered this week.

What's next? Technically we set a lower high, so it could be argued that the ABC correction is still on. That's seems a bit silly and it makes more sense to observe the action as a double top. On the other hand, $INDU definitively set a lower high, so that is set as an ABC correction. I'll be looking for the possible scenarios for the next low to get narrowed down. Right now, we could get a higher low, a double bottom or a lower low.