Cobra's Market View

100% measured move target.

EFA wrote:

pablorynx wrote:

EFA wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

stocksage wrote:We are getting a little stretched to the upside but like I said months ago buy goog, aapl, and short oil and get rich! Now the oil trade is over.

Congrats! you are on the nose again. what's in the plate today?

Hello,

What would you think about VIX Nov. calls? Any idea? It seems to be at the lower BB, could it be a nice ride up from here to November?
Thanks guys

I would think that a view on vol going up, probably better off with just being long vix (or VXX/VXZ). the problem is that even if vol goes up, the vol of vol might get hammered, making it hard to make money on the vix move. Call spreads might be the way to go on this one.

You mean a bull call spread or a bull put spread? Thanks

Buy a lower strike call, sell a higher strike call. It only diminishes the vol of vol exposure, not eliminate it. Selling the put spread might be the better way to go, since you might see VIX pop, but implied vol of vol can come down, most likely on the first pull back. One way to play might be sell the Nov VIX putspread, wait for VIX to go up, then sell VIX futures against the putspread and watch vol of vol come down. a bit complicated, but think it's possible. or just buy the bull call spread, wait for the vol pop, then dump the spread. Also, if you want to trade the Nov calls, you need to pay attention to the Nov Vix future, as the call will be priced off of that future, not off of VIX.

IWM, one foot in the no man's land, bearish bias under 200ma 1min.

Update

SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/spx_5376.html

"Occupy Wall Street." "All day, all week."

waverider wrote:

Unique wrote:For people talking about EUR/USD, wanna post some charts?

Not everyone have forex charts...

I don't trade forex, but Petsamo says you can watch here: http://www.livecharts.co.uk/ForexCharts/eurusd.php

I had problem to get you a EUR/USD chart, here is the FXE one. Check the BB. I guess it's time to short euro again.

99er wrote:Update

SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/spx_5376.html

"Occupy Wall Street." "All day, all week."

It's interesting how the current SPY chart looks a lot like mid-Sptember, with two island-like tops then. Now it looks like we are making the same formation.

you'll see that EUR/USD sliced through a fan and retracement level this morning, but formed a doji hourly with some follow through on the next hour. we need to drop back into the fan channel it sliced through this morning for a confirmation to short eur, but it's looking ok so far.

99er wrote:Update

SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/spx_5376.html

"Occupy Wall Street." "All day, all week."

Weekly Option expiry day today. Did not look good for financial stocks today. Just don't understand financial stocks' downgrade always happe ned on Friday or late Thursday ?

Looky Looky what I saw on the TVIX... the mother of all PBARs?

Still fully deployed with TVIX at the moment.

BullTart wrote:Looky Looky what I saw on the TVIX... the mother of all PBARs?

Still fully deployed with TVIX at the moment.

i love it. but pbars have been crap all week. HAHA...hoping for some pbar follow through...

these inverse ETFs are so messed up TLT=1.5% TMV = 4.34% but since its 3x leveraged it should be 4.5%....
SHADY STUFF!

jarbo456 wrote:

BullTart wrote:Looky Looky what I saw on the TVIX... the mother of all PBARs?

Still fully deployed with TVIX at the moment.

i love it. but pbars have been crap all week. HAHA...hoping for some pbar follow through...

I see no p-bar on TOS for this, so no p-bar I guess

BullTart wrote:Looky Looky what I saw on the TVIX... the mother of all PBARs?

Still fully deployed with TVIX at the moment.

Thanks bro, I'm still holding.

jarbo456 wrote:you'll see that EUR/USD sliced through a fan and retracement level this morning, but formed a doji hourly with some follow through on the next hour. we need to drop back into the fan channel it sliced through this morning for a confirmation to short eur, but it's looking ok so far.

Nice chart, unfortunately I don't know of any website I can use to draw gann lines... Hopefully stockcharts will add the feature eventually. Do you trade forex?

multiple resistance. the rebound so far looks like a rising wedge or bear flag.

Seems SPX is in consolidation before revisiting the high. I think yesterday's low was a good chance to add longs as Cobra's TA indicated. Anyway adding longs now is not too late. Would like to call your attention to: CIEN and NPSP.

day bears should be careful, so far I see 3 things not so bear friendly:

1. AUDJPY and TBT are rising which is bullish.
2. Could be a Falling Wedge in the forming.
3. Drops are too slow, it's not impulse down.

[quote="stockcycle"]Seems SPX is in consolidation before revisiting the high. I think yesterday's low was a good chance to add longs as Cobra's TA indicated. Anyway adding longs now is not too late. Would like to call your attention to: CIEN and NPSP.

what are you seeing on those two charts stockcycle? i always like your calls...

just taking a quick look on hourlies, they both look like potential shorts...or is my mind too bearishly biased right now? lol

waverider wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:you'll see that EUR/USD sliced through a fan and retracement level this morning, but formed a doji hourly with some follow through on the next hour. we need to drop back into the fan channel it sliced through this morning for a confirmation to short eur, but it's looking ok so far.

Nice chart, unfortunately I don't know of any website I can use to draw gann lines... Hopefully stockcharts will add the feature eventually. Do you trade forex?

fx was my background when i worked in an office.

i trade less of it now, as the past couple years have been mired by way too much overnight intervention. it's rough having to be awake at 3-4am for the Euro open, and again at 8am for the US open, not to mention glancing at your charts around 8 for the Asia open. always have a trade in the FX market, basically risk on/off trades. AUD/JPY or else another similar cross - and always monitoring the EUR/USD.

BullTart wrote:Looky Looky what I saw on the TVIX... the mother of all PBARs?

Still fully deployed with TVIX at the moment.

Very interesting That would fill all the gaps above Leaving an open gap below at around 39