11/02/2011 Intraday Watering

[ricster3]

Shorted this here with puts worth $500, do or die (basically all I have left in trading account)... if QE3 is here, I'm completely done with this.

It is roulette to be in a position like that before 12:30...why not wait for confirmation?

You think I can make some serious gains waiting for the moves to have happened? How?

[newbie_77]

seasonality is bullish ... and santa rally around the corner...

as cobra said:
its hard to be a bear and make profit... when all bulls need is imagination

still not too late to short guys.

[StrikePrice]

Shorted this here with puts worth $500, do or die (basically all I have left in trading account)... if QE3 is here, I'm completely done with this.

I think we have completed the A of an A-B-C up so take your profits after seeing 2-push down with the B wave we're in now and live to fight another day. All success comes from failure, so be a learner not a quitter.

[newbie_77]

tdo, if you do not mind me asking what do you use? SPY directly? or options? can you shed light on the block?

still not too late to short guys.

ok, clocked out .30 pennies on spy. Done.

I think it can go lower still. oh well.

[Me XMan]

You're ALL IN !!! Good luck.

Shorted this here with puts worth $500, do or die (basically all I have left in trading account)... if QE3 is here, I'm completely done with this.

[tdo722]

tdo, if you do not mind me asking what do you use? SPY directly? or options? can you shed light on the block?

still not too late to short guys.

ok, clocked out .30 pennies on spy. Done.

I think it can go lower still. oh well.

i'm scalping, so no need for options.

[bushwaffle]

Shorted this here with puts worth $500, do or die (basically all I have left in trading account)... if QE3 is here, I'm completely done with this.

It is roulette to be in a position like that before 12:30...why not wait for confirmation?

You think I can make some serious gains waiting for the moves to have happened? How?

Depends on what you mean by "serious gains". If you're shooting for more than 10% on a single trade, especially with that balance, you're being unrealistic.

[tdo722]

Should have left 1/3 position and set stop loss at breakeven but FOMC scares the hell out of me because stop loss has proven useless after FOMC. What I mean, is you'll end up selling 5 to 10 pennies in the red or worst.

[pady]

Shorted this here with puts worth $500, do or die (basically all I have left in trading account)... if QE3 is here, I'm completely done with this.

I think we have completed the A of an A-B-C up so take your profits after seeing 2-push down with the B wave we're in now and live to fight another day. All success comes from failure, so be a learner not a quitter.

Thanks Strike for another confirm on my thoughts. I feel we are doing a slow B till FOMC and we will see a C up after that to 50% retrace of fall from 1292-1215. Which comes to 1250 range.

[L_T]

Thanks I love info-graphics like that one. Interesting about the Congo, although "if they can get their politics and infrastructure together" is a huge if, especially for corrupt/war-torn African nations. FCX is already the world's largest copper producer by output I believe so they are the ones to follow in terms of future production.

I still haven't loaded up on FCX because I would like to get it sub-37.50. I missed out a few weeks back thinking it was going to re-visit the lows. Oh well tomorrow is another day. Thanks for the research info.

PAGING L_T
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/11/0 ... 411_SC.gif
Also, something new to obsess about, re FCX: Keep one eye open for anything out of the Democratic Republic of Congo [DRC]. If they can get their politics and infrastructure together, they may be the future biggest copper producer.
FCX leads a partnership with Lundin Mining (LUN.TO) and the DRC government, in the country's largest copper mine at Tenke Fungurume (Gecamines mine), where deposits “comprise one of the world's largest known copper-cobalt resources....Congo's copper output, decimated in the 1980s, has risen from 96,000 tonnes in 2007 to a projected 500,000 tonnes this year…” (Reuters, 10/28/11)

Also internals update; bull confirmed:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =247748592

[jarbo456]

market is coiling for some serious moves on the FOMC meeting...IMO.

don't know if it's going to be up or down - think there's equal chance to visit 1210/1200 and gap fillage at 1250. so obviously, market has put itself in the most obscure position before the meeting. it's just roulette right now. i'm holding both puts and calls on SPY, calls are in the money, puts are out of the money at this point. short term think there's a bias to rip and fill the gap (where i'll sell the calls) - with another test of 1210/1220 after that (but could take a few days to get this test) in which case i'll sell the puts.

not that anyone is that interested, but figured i'd lay out my game plan for the next 1-5 trading days.

i think Nov. is in for a pretty choppy month. started the month down over 2% - and according to bespoke stats means we should end the month down some more. but don't think we get there that simply, as the less noisy S&P P&F charts show some technical damage, but still a pretty bullish pattern.

[StrikePrice]

Boring day and I think FOMC will be head fake by HFTs and we'll close around 1,230.

Roadmap.

[newbie_77]

jarbo,
this is great information thank you for sharing.
are you using front end (nov) options or latter months?

market is coiling for some serious moves on the FOMC meeting...IMO.

don't know if it's going to be up or down - think there's equal chance to visit 1210/1200 and gap fillage at 1250. so obviously, market has put itself in the most obscure position before the meeting. it's just roulette right now. i'm holding both puts and calls on SPY, calls are in the money, puts are out of the money at this point. short term think there's a bias to rip and fill the gap (where i'll sell the calls) - with another test of 1210/1220 after that (but could take a few days to get this test) in which case i'll sell the puts.

not that anyone is that interested, but figured i'd lay out my game plan for the next 1-5 trading days.

i think Nov. is in for a pretty choppy month. started the month down over 2% - and according to bespoke stats means we should end the month down some more. but don't think we get there that simply, as the less noisy S&P P&F charts show some technical damage, but still a pretty bullish pattern.

[bobo]

Typical wave 4 action. Lower lows to follow. Perhaps a bottom around November 10th at 1180ish.

this consolidation is bullish...maybe just waiting on FOMC news..

[janez]

Shorted this here with puts worth $500, do or die (basically all I have left in trading account)... if QE3 is here, I'm completely done with this.

It is roulette to be in a position like that before 12:30...why not wait for confirmation?

Gee, how can one trade with $500 account? would be incredibly hard. Better to leave it alone and trade later when account size increases.

[jarbo456]

jarbo,
this is great information thank you for sharing.
are you using front end (nov) options or latter months?

market is coiling for some serious moves on the FOMC meeting...IMO.

don't know if it's going to be up or down - think there's equal chance to visit 1210/1200 and gap fillage at 1250. so obviously, market has put itself in the most obscure position before the meeting. it's just roulette right now. i'm holding both puts and calls on SPY, calls are in the money, puts are out of the money at this point. short term think there's a bias to rip and fill the gap (where i'll sell the calls) - with another test of 1210/1220 after that (but could take a few days to get this test) in which case i'll sell the puts.

not that anyone is that interested, but figured i'd lay out my game plan for the next 1-5 trading days.

i think Nov. is in for a pretty choppy month. started the month down over 2% - and according to bespoke stats means we should end the month down some more. but don't think we get there that simply, as the less noisy S&P P&F charts show some technical damage, but still a pretty bullish pattern.

almost always use month out options. i don't trust my market timing to be accurate enough, and am willing to pay the theta (time) decay for the flexibility. however, for this position, i'm in nov. puts, as they are part of my legacy position that i closed 75% of yesterday. so nov. puts and dec. calls for now.

[bushwaffle]

Typical wave 4 action. Lower lows to follow. Perhaps a bottom around November 10th at 1180ish.

this consolidation is bullish...maybe just waiting on FOMC news..

I was referring to a time frame of about 20 mins...I never hold anything overnight, been gap burned too many times...

[Al_Dente]

POP

Sustainable trend = nyadv > 2000, .... Complex RSI settings, how did you come up with them?

Wavemeister: bingo, and nosebleed is >2800
One min on stockcharts.com is RSI-20, purple, different on other platforms, but BB52x has best 1min rsi on board.
Gold line behind rsi is severely tweaked to tell me what I need to hear sometimes: namely it whispers: “Al, relax, you may/may not be able to hold all day here, don’t get sooo jumpy…”
PS: VERY important how spy handles vwap here, don’t u think?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtYbF99v ... re=related

PS: Memory jogger: FOMC announcements are often followed by perhaps 10-20 minutes of radical seismic earthquakes (BOTH ways).
Jarbo’s straddle sounds best.
Al is always FLAT AS A PANCAKE (no exceptions) just before, during, and after FOMC, because Al is “brock brock bock bock bok bok bk bk bk”

[tdo722]

Typical wave 4 action. Lower lows to follow. Perhaps a bottom around November 10th at 1180ish.

this consolidation is bullish...maybe just waiting on FOMC news..

I was referring to a time frame of about 20 mins...I never hold anything overnight, been gap burned too many times...

You should trade /es aka e-mini. No gaps to worry about ever.

[StrikePrice]

Shorted this here with puts worth $500, do or die (basically all I have left in trading account)... if QE3 is here, I'm completely done with this.

I think we have completed the A of an A-B-C up so take your profits after seeing 2-push down with the B wave we're in now and live to fight another day. All success comes from failure, so be a learner not a quitter.

Thanks Strike for another confirm on my thoughts. I feel we are doing a slow B till FOMC and we will see a C up after that to 50% retrace of fall from 1292-1215. Which comes to 1250 range.

Sounds spot on. This morning's Zig-Zag stopped short of my 1245 target so the next up leg will probably stop short of my 1254 target. It's possible (i'm hoping) it can stretch to 1263 but imagine we'd need a nice news item to get the additional buyers to bite.