03/09/2012 Intraday Watering

[taggard]

Next week is when VIX will start to be worthwhile, after the 12th...IMHO...

Thanks. I will definitely keep an eye out for that date. It looks like COMP wants to hit above 3000 today. Not sure about DOW and SPX and RUT. The small caps are so strong today because of the jobs number. The rest of the indices are like "bleh!"

worth noting on naz is that the 50% fib of the entire decline from 2000 is ball park 3100. with the qqq ball park 70. i find the qqq easier to watch. i find it highly likely we go close to this 50% fib area prior to any epic move down. using qqq the first move even close to a fib fails.

on the rut issue--my guess the index acted like that since most shorts (relative to the index etc) were in that sucker.

on another note the number of bearish posts this morning is pretty intense. i can see the reason people might think like this easily. in my case this will be week 10 in a row the qqq has been up. (using stockcharts data) this exceeds every move of this kind except for 1999. So obviously we are looking for a week down here. But when you see posts re how little was lost on a short (and that was a very decent take small loss thing) instead of anyone saying "i bot the gap fill (qqq) or failure to fill the gap on the second try on spy"--we are getting sucked into what we want not what is there (only my opinion of course). the point here is not to disrespect any trader or idea--but to point out that we are thinking in a very anticipatory manner which happens to be (in general on a daily chart) be counter trend.

as a mental exercise--cobra and many of us expected or nailed a trade to the long side after the distribution day (or in my case the first hit of the 20 ema on qqq) but few of us expected a move to or over the last high (i got out of my long far too soon) this sort of thing is a hint about the market. if we didn't double test fairly fast it's telling us something. again this is not in any way disrespecting the many good traders on this site--it is an attempt to suggest that more of an in the moment feeling approach may be indicated. so the object is to add to what people are doing not in any way take away from what they are doing.

as for the future--in 1999 after the first pull back (which was colorful) there was a continued move up. this matches spx trying for the last major high and qqq for the 50% fib of the whole decline. for now hoping tradingirl is correct sometime next week and we get a decent down week in qqq--but also suspect there will be a test of this weeks high next week even if we sell later in the day or early monday.

good luck to everyone have a good weekend

[Harapa]

Expecting a rebound ~138.02

What is your current stat on TNA?

for TNA IWM is a better guide.
for March 9, 2012
IWM Cash Range
H2 81.34
H1 81.02
Open 80.51
L1 80.00
L2 79.68
and it is way over its upper threshold

[btran874]

Next week is when VIX will start to be worthwhile, after the 12th...IMHO...

Thanks. I will definitely keep an eye out for that date. It looks like COMP wants to hit above 3000 today. Not sure about DOW and SPX and RUT. The small caps are so strong today because of the jobs number. The rest of the indices are like "bleh!"

worth noting on naz is that the 50% fib of the entire decline from 2000 is ball park 3100. with the qqq ball park 70. i find the qqq easier to watch. i find it highly likely we go close to this 50% fib area prior to any epic move down. using qqq the first move even close to a fib fails.

on the rut issue--my guess the index acted like that since most shorts (relative to the index etc) were in that sucker.

on another note the number of bearish posts this morning is pretty intense. i can see the reason people might think like this easily. in my case this will be week 10 in a row the qqq has been up. (using stockcharts data) this exceeds every move of this kind except for 1999. So obviously we are looking for a week down here. But when you see posts re how little was lost on a short (and that was a very decent take small loss thing) instead of anyone saying "i bot the gap fill (qqq) or failure to fill the gap on the second try on spy"--we are getting sucked into what we want not what is there (only my opinion of course). the point here is not to disrespect any trader or idea--but to point out that we are thinking in a very anticipatory manner which happens to be (in general on a daily chart) be counter trend.

as a mental exercise--cobra and many of us expected or nailed a trade to the long side after the distribution day (or in my case the first hit of the 20 ema on qqq) but few of us expected a move to or over the last high (i got out of my long far too soon) this sort of thing is a hint about the market. if we didn't double test fairly fast it's telling us something. again this is not in any way disrespecting the many good traders on this site--it is an attempt to suggest that more of an in the moment feeling approach may be indicated. so the object is to add to what people are doing not in any way take away from what they are doing.

as for the future--in 1999 after the first pull back (which was colorful) there was a continued move up. this matches spx trying for the last major high and qqq for the 50% fib of the whole decline. for now hoping tradingirl is correct sometime next week and we get a decent down week in qqq--but also suspect there will be a test of this weeks high next week even if we sell later in the day or early monday.

good luck to everyone have a good weekend

Very well said and enjoy your weekend!

[jimme]

UUP anyone?

/DX has a breakout up huge vol stick right here. The SPY has been trading up with the dollar today. Normally it trades opposite. GLTA jimme

I try not to use /DX & SPX, for me either you buy DBV and short dollar or vise versa.

Will have to discuss in the Weekend Watering. GLTA jimme

[Al_Dente]

Next week is when VIX will start to be worthwhile, after the 12th...IMHO...

Thanks. I will definitely keep an eye out for that date. It looks like COMP wants to hit above 3000 today. Not sure about DOW and SPX and RUT. The small caps are so strong today because of the jobs number. The rest of the indices are like "bleh!"

worth noting on naz is that the 50% fib of the entire decline from 2000 is ball park 3100. with the qqq ball park 70. i find the qqq easier to watch. i find it highly likely we go close to this 50% fib area prior to any epic move down. using qqq the first move even close to a fib fails.
on the rut issue--my guess the index acted like that since most shorts (relative to the index etc) were in that sucker.
on another note the number of bearish posts this morning is pretty intense. i can see the reason people might think like this easily. in my case this will be week 10 in a row the qqq has been up. (using stockcharts data) this exceeds every move of this kind except for 1999. So obviously we are looking for a week down here. But when you see posts re how little was lost on a short (and that was a very decent take small loss thing) instead of anyone saying "i bot the gap fill (qqq) or failure to fill the gap on the second try on spy"--we are getting sucked into what we want not what is there (only my opinion of course). the point here is not to disrespect any trader or idea--but to point out that we are thinking in a very anticipatory manner which happens to be (in general on a daily chart) be counter trend.
as a mental exercise--cobra and many of us expected or nailed a trade to the long side after the distribution day (or in my case the first hit of the 20 ema on qqq) but few of us expected a move to or over the last high (i got out of my long far too soon) this sort of thing is a hint about the market. if we didn't double test fairly fast it's telling us something. again this is not in any way disrespecting the many good traders on this site--it is an attempt to suggest that more of an in the moment feeling approach may be indicated. so the object is to add to what people are doing not in any way take away from what they are doing.
as for the future--in 1999 after the first pull back (which was colorful) there was a continued move up. this matches spx trying for the last major high and qqq for the 50% fib of the whole decline. for now hoping tradingirl is correct sometime next week and we get a decent down week in qqq--but also suspect there will be a test of this weeks high next week even if we sell later in the day or early monday.
good luck to everyone have a good weekend

Taggie, r u using this board as yr own personal contrary indicator?
VIX cracked 16 today, now very near its low of 16.42 made on 2/24, oy
btw: JBTFD until that stops working

PS: when u say 20ema QQQ u mean on the 5 min charts, yes?

[BullBear52x]

Expecting a rebound ~138.02

What is your current stat on TNA?

for TNA IWM is a better guide.
for March 9, 2012
IWM Cash Range
H2 81.34
H1 81.02
Open 80.51
L1 80.00
L2 79.68
and it is way over its upper threshold

I mean next day input, what was it?

[Unique]

SPX Hourly RSI is 70, we're near the top. Over weekend short if no breakout today.

Possibly one last push by 1:30pm

zzzzzzz

[pidge66]

Anyone noticing the MACD on the SPY daily has been flat for the past 3 days. Are we ready for a double top, soon?

http://goo.gl/tBaJU

[Cobra]

the bias is still up.

[Tabby]

Expecting a rebound ~138.02

What is your current stat on TNA?

for TNA IWM is a better guide.
for March 9, 2012
IWM Cash Range
H2 81.34
H1 81.02
Open 80.51
L1 80.00
L2 79.68
and it is way over its upper threshold

High of $RUT=821.19, IWM =82.15. very close. This is way different$RUT 813 or IWM 81.3 for H2.From high 833.02 , 38% retracement is 814. Is he using Cam levels?

[BullBear52x]

so flat now, time to clean up a cooler. it's Friday, don't work yourself out so hard.

[SWalsh]

the bias is still up.

As long as Jamie Dimon and his ilk have card that say "get out of jail as long as you support this market", no sell signals, however valid, will be lasting. They did not like August 9th and they have clearly taken steps to insure that never happens again.

[BullBear52x]

Anyone noticing the MACD on the SPY daily has been flat for the past 3 days. Are we ready for a double top, soon?

http://goo.gl/tBaJU

you say double top? always sell double top that is my theme. (but buy triple)


lunch time.

[Tabby]

Anyone noticing the MACD on the SPY daily has been flat for the past 3 days. Are we ready for a double top, soon?

http://goo.gl/tBaJU

This chart is old. When was the time you ve'seen SPY $120 in past three days? Hourly chart turned bullish. For swing trading or day trading it is better to use 5-15 mins chart in my opinion.
BTW, what I see it is bullish .

[Cobra]

lunch time, will be back, still I see it up.

[taggard]

paging al

on the counter indicator thing--as best i can tell . . .no--trying to only use price action in all time frames as well as nymo 10/30 ad. but am only human and some leaks in.

on the qqq 20 ema i use this in all time frames along with the 10 ema. so if you look at a daily qqq you wil note that it was 2 months without a hit of the 20 ema. this is fairly rare--and the first hit almost always holds. i suspect we will try this area again in the next week or so. But the end of march and april are interesting in light of a possible 2nd move up after some sort of half-assed pull back in qqq on a weakly . . er weekly chart.

add on technique note--i really like al brooks but am not a purist so i use 5/15/60/daily/weekly and monthly charts--but i try to use them in the most simple form i can (1-2 emas and skip most indicators or cross referencing). ideally i want to trade a smaller time frame inside a larger one so that both the larger trend and smaller one are correct. this is one sort of trade. the only other trade i do is the nymo/nysi or 10/30 ma of the nyse ad line--which is more of a shot gun approach with minimal timing (maybe a 60 min very roughly).

bonus emphasis--mostly on 8+ weeks in a row on qqq you will see the first down week match or exceed the highs of the last up week (in theory this week--here i go being assumptive. .sigh) so i would assume that if in fact we pull back again next week--that there will be a decent entry here or ideally just a bit higher (on a gap up at open thing??).

bonus second point--they say by the end of 2012 there will be an installed base of (ball park) 2.5-2.9 bill smart phones on the planet. there were supposed to be about 5.6 bill dumb/and smart phones in 2012. we have about 7.5 billion people on the planet (many are so poor they will not be buying aapl anytime soon). intc is coming in hard with droid and likely to be supportive in the same way they were with dell and cpus (eg they pay for advertising if you use their chip) so the aapl 5 phone (june?? or july prior to earnings-- is going to be an interesting period--esp if we can pop aapl to the 575-675 area. (i have no clue if this data is correct but iphone is rated at 52.4% ipad at 12.7% and mac 12% cash 18%--and these are % of value of company--to get aapl to slow down or choke the phone thing needs to chill--right now margins do decrease on phones but not as fast as sales increase--eventually this too shall pass

signed have a dumb phone keep it turned off so i can get something done (studies show every time you read an email or answer the phone there is a lag prior to the intensity of concentration you had prior to the interruption) good luck all

[SWalsh]

My thoughts on why an element of this corrupt administration had to instruct the HFTs to buy for 40 minutes today AND why we are seeing a pattern I have not found in 3 years on nothing but HFT shoving the market up.

It's all in the headlines.

I run mostly TOS. Is there an indicator for "Corrupt Chicago Politician Assumes Presidency and Voids Contract Law" to put in my systems? I'm finding some difficult accounting for that. BUT, I heard Articles of Impeachment are being drawn up is a reply is not forthcoming as to Panetta's stating, "International Permission Trumps Congressional Permission For Military Actions". I think it's Jeff Sessions that wants to know from the President who he is answerable to.

Crime in the markets? Been there....seen it....had agencies refuse to act. This is an area where I really do know what I am talking about. None of this surprises me, other than it is now so blatant.

[Tabby]

I am thinking to dip my toes in TZA . I might not have any toes left by the day, I only want a shiny quater per share

[btran874]

I am thinking to dip my toes in TZA . I might not have any toes left by the day, I only want a shiny quater per share

LoL

[pidge66]

Anyone noticing the MACD on the SPY daily has been flat for the past 3 days. Are we ready for a double top, soon?

http://goo.gl/tBaJU

This chart is old. When was the time you ve'seen SPY $120 in past three days? Hourly chart turned bullish. For swing trading or day trading it is better to use 5-15 mins chart in my opinion.
BTW, what I see it is bullish .

Thanks for the comments. BTW, I am totally lost with "SPY $120". What's that all about?

BTW, did Cobra post before about the day of employment number? Something about the day or the day that follow would be red most of the time.... Anyone remember? TIA.