04/03/2012 Live Update

[Petsamo]

Someone has bad news

[Cobra]

must be fomc minute?

[johnnywa]

Someone has bad news

Yup a leak of course

[taggard]

THROW BACK CHART left by Ryshab on DEC Mon 19th
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ok i'll byte. Is the market simple or it it complex? much of this has to do with the eye of the observer. in any given time frame and and on any given chart the market is either in a range or a trend. That is fairly simple to define. If this is so what makes the market complex and difficult? Mostly our perception of the event--far more than the event itself.
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Thanks for your insight. I do like what you've shared. I am a novice and appreciate your thoughts.

your welcome--if you are just starting out--there are two things i would consider doing. (1) try sorting this site by author and read only cobra stuff for say 1-5 months. Cobra's intra day stuff is pretty consistent and is partly a variation on the al brooks stuff. What cobra (and brooks) having going for them is very simple reads on price action (cobra likes volume on possible exhaustion bars).

reading charts like this is a habit you can pick up very quickly IF you concentrate on just one idea at a time (eg in this case what cobra is doing).

So why just cobra at the start? Because this site is full of people using different methods from astrology to stuff having to do with HFT. The problem is not the validity of a given approach--since 95% of that is actually not the school of thought--but the person using it. The issue here is that all these different ideas at the start will dilute your focus. Why cobra? Because he is simple--consistent--and later you can use it and other ideas if you so desire.

But most of all because it is close to pure price action thinking--and in the end if there is an absolute it's the value of a thing at a given point in time.

(2) the other idea is to start the long slow process of identifying emotional thinking of "value" and emotional perception of "no value". why not distinguish emotional and logical? Because there is no way to do it--your version of logic is chosen in an "emotional manner" based on your past and esp sense of aesthetics (what you see as true).

So don't fall in to the trap that "i can control emotion" in fact one way or another--with 95% at least--of the people out there "emotion is controlling them".
The idea is to distinguish feelings that are of value often referred to as "hunches clues technical details" and so on. And emotional stuff of no value esp double binds such as "the market went up and i missed it--so odds are it will keeping up and i will miss that". This sort of thing will not help trading.

What will help? The sort version is (1) simple feelings based on experience--so i have watched 3000 5 min chart days--and usually when stuff feels like this--this happens" thinking. The problem is this takes time--and everyone tries to rush it. After 10k hours of thoughtful attention you get skillful (or so some studies say) that is 1000 10 hour days or 2000 20 hour days. (2) exceptional feeling stuff based on awareness--Soros is a pretty amazing guy--and about 50% (ball park) of his trades were due to back pains. These pains were physical manifestations of what he saw going on in the markets. They started under his level of conscious awareness and later he started actually listening to them. These states not only take time--but something else that most people never experience or at least that if asked in public never admit to.

bottom line--

at the start keep it really simple-

-just get to the point where you can understand simple price action in one thing in one time frame. Cut out the noise for as long as you can stand it. Second don't reject emotional stuff or for that matter trading ideas you don't understand or use--respect both. and pay attention over time. As time goes by and your experience grows you will slowly see bits and pieces here and there that are useful--take what works for you--leave the rest behind. Try to relax and see trading as a longer term thing--where you want to win over 1000 trades not just 1 trade.

good luck with your trading

[Petsamo]

Look out below!

[BullBear52x]

Dow theory is confirmed on 5 min.

[Cobra]

trend line and possible target.

[stucap]

Look out below!

Don't count um yet --- wait til they read the text and find something to BTFD on......

[TraderGirl]

Does anyone know what the news is???

I guess we did end up seeing another wave down

[SWalsh]

NOW THIS IS INTERESTING!

I woke-up as I had never heard this machine gun like hits.

Note in the box how the quote stuffing didn't drop towards zero between hits. This was repeating second after second for about 20 seconds.

We are clearly under the trendline so either they are changing the direction today, or there were massive stops and a few much larger hits can take the mkt back up 1 SPY point in minutes when done.

[MrMiyagi]

I`m sure the day will end up green, SPY at 142$. Election is still in November.

[stucap]

Does anyone know what the news is???

I guess we did end up seeing another wave down

FOMC minutes

[johnnywa]

Does anyone know what the news is???

I guess we did end up seeing another wave down

[BullBear52x]

Does anyone know what the news is???

I guess we did end up seeing another wave down

The news is market socialist is about to end. until next week LOL

[Cobra]

target reached. let's wait for an exhaustion bar.

[TraderGirl]

Does anyone know what the news is???

I guess we did end up seeing another wave down

FOMC minutes

I know it's FOMC, but I guess they are saying no QE3....??

[Junoon123]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-offic ... 04826.html

[Cobra]

overshot, might see rebound here then we'll see.

[stucap]

FOMC SAW NO NEED TO EASE ANEW UNLESS GROWTH SLOWS, MINUTES SHOW
MOST FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW `LITTLE EVIDENCE OF COST PRESSURES
FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAID LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED
MOST FOMC PARTICIPANTS EXPECTED INFLATION RATE AT 2% OR LESS
MANY FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW `EASED' STRAINS IN GLOBAL MARKETS
MOST ON FOMC SAW TEMPORARY IMPACT FROM RISING OIL, GAS PRICES
FOMC SAID SIGNIFICANT OUTLOOK CHANGE COULD ALTER 2014 RATE PLAN

[SWalsh]

I`m sure the day will end up green, SPY at 142$. Election is still in November.

What if Kondratiev wants his winter?