10/13/2011 Intraday Watering

[spuderik]

NAAIM came in at zero. That is an unprecedented 3 weeks in a row of sub-5 level readings. Amazing that the recent rally didn't even budge this investing manager equity exposure survey. What it means is that for 3 weeks running now we've seen these managers average near 0% exposure to the stock market. This fits in with the oddity of put-call ratio staying dramatically high in the face of the equity rally. This should be contrarian bullish, but we've never seen it so bearish before which is disconcerting given that the market only dropped 20% from top to bottom.
AAII showed a drop in bears and rise in bulls, along what would be expected.

Thank u 4 EXCELLENT post on cobras overnight board

You're welcome. I was wondering whether I should post it or not. I like "game theory" style thought experiments. It's an effort to keep my mind focused not only on the near term but beyond. One of the most difficult challenges I face as a trader is trying to organize all of the technical and fundamental issues/developments in a clear yet comprehensive picture.

Overall though, I want to keep my footprint here minimal, and any opinions backed with data. I understand that near term calls are akin to a crapshoot sometimes, so I try my best to not over trade or be stubbornly dogmatic.

[gabor]

"The current measures are too little and too late and are precipitating global financial turmoil. The euro is far from perfect, as this crisis has revealed. But the answer is to fix its faults rather than allowing it to undermine and perhaps destroy the global financial system," Soros and the other dignitaries write, including ex-German finance minister Hans Eichel, former French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner and Pedro Solbes, who was once EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner.
On top of a new, common treasury that would raise funds for the eurozone as a whole and ensure that member states maintain fiscal discipline, European policymakers need to reinforce supervision, regulation and deposit insurance and also develop a strategy to produce both economic convergence and growth.
I EU does this, it will result in a recession first and devaluation of EURO at least for couple of years. If do not do, then prompt collapse.

Soros predicted 2008 too.
Wanna read more
http://www.newsmax.com/StreetTalk/Soros ... /id/414094

[agnosia]

oh come on already bull/bears .. breakdown or up already !!!! i am long 1190, stop 1189. hoping for a pop to 1195 - the double top target. i think i may be on the wrong side here

[1der]

Just way out on a limb to prove to myself if I am crazy by recording this in front of thousands.
I cannot trade it because I do not have enough confidence in this (yet):

Move down to to ES 1179/1181 area then back up to 1214/1216 area, then onto 1237.

Basis is:
1. Yesterdays 1216 High (Fib 1.00) to 1181 (Fib 0.00) with Fib ruler = 1237 on the uopper 1.618
2. Some other wacko thing I have been observing similiar to P-Bars that says 1181 /1214/ 1237

Need for this current up move to not go higher than 1194/1196 in order to keep 1181 in play.

[jarbo456]

there's been some good mirroring in the /cl chart this morning, and it's starting to look like a symmetrical triangle...hopefully to be resolved to the downside.

[agnosia]

i bought some dollars 77.5 on the /dx seems to be holding. a little hedge against my long.

[spuderik]

Just for fun, remeber that day in 08 ? and now !!!

ZeroHedge had a popular guest post on this yesterday. I find the ZH article a very clumsy comparison because that gigantic rally in 2008 was due to the introduction of TARP. There was no shocking bullish development that caused this recent up move, so comparing the two periods is very weak analysis by the ZH contributor in my opinion, and may lead many traders/investors astray, into believing that a crash is imminent (days) when it likely is not.

[Cobra]

L2 short on EMA20, this is bear's last chance must win cannot afford to lose.

[Unique]

Cobra a bit too biased on bull side.

Still looks like going to 118. We'll get there eventually. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

[jarbo456]

L2 short on EMA20, this is bear's last chance must win cannot afford to lose.

and that's another fail by the bears.

[tdo722]

oh come on already bull/bears .. breakdown or up already !!!! i am long 1190, stop 1189. hoping for a pop to 1195 - the double top target. i think i may be on the wrong side here

Your reward:risk ratio is good. 1190 could be the ending of wave 5 from yesterday decline of 1220. It's working on wave B at the moment so expect a little downside. It retraced a little over 38.2% of wave A so far. Let's hope it doesn't retrace more than 100% then I think we good.

Also, wave C projected to be at 1199 so you might want to get off if we do hit it.

[SB73]

I see a bear flag breakdown on the 1 min, but maybe it is because I want to see it.

[Dow Trader]

Just for fun, remeber that day in 08 ? and now !!!

ZeroHedge had a popular guest post on this yesterday. I find the ZH article a very clumsy comparison because that gigantic rally in 2008 was due to the introduction of TARP. There was no shocking bullish development that caused this recent up move, so comparing the two periods is very weak analysis by the ZH contributor in my opinion, and may lead many traders/investors astray, into believing that a crash is imminent (days) when it likely is not.

This is why I said " just for fun " I am with you on this.

[jarbo456]

I see a bear flag breakdown on the 1 min, but maybe it is because I want to see it.

yeah, i see it too. but then again, it's just the minute chart. bears need a little more strength then a minor bearish pattern on a 1 minute chart.

[tdo722]

oh come on already bull/bears .. breakdown or up already !!!! i am long 1190, stop 1189. hoping for a pop to 1195 - the double top target. i think i may be on the wrong side here

Your reward:risk ratio is good. 1190 could be the ending of wave 5 from yesterday decline of 1220. It's working on wave B at the moment so expect a little downside. It retraced a little over 38.2% of wave A so far. Let's hope it doesn't retrace more than 100% then I think we good.

Also, wave C projected to be at 1199 so you might want to get off if we do hit it.

I am a safety player so I don't even bet at 1190 unless it goes past 1197.45 (top of wave a) and then I only have a few spx points for reward but at least I know the count works.

[Dow Trader]

This pattern means the rally is over or at least the first upleg of it is over ( even if we go above yesturday's high )

[KENA]

Quick up date..Retail still red..Sox barely green..Just wait and see..Back later

[Unique]

AAPL three push..

http://i.imgur.com/qaBPy.gif

[Unique]

deleted, my bad WRONG BUTTON!!! errrrrr

BTW there's an image restriction size here? Where's the FAQ??

[Unique]

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