11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

[jarbo456]

for those doubting TA...i spent all thanksgiving reading several books debunking the idea of TA to get a better assessment of its value...

Jarbo, could I get the title of the books that you're reading? Thanks!

What is ignored by TA aficionados are the probabilities that certain TA setups will fail.

not just that "certain" TA setups will fail. but that ALL TA setups have a fairly low "edge" in terms of success.

chart pattern trading has some major flaws as pattern recognition is VERY subjective (argued as the "art" of trading). trading these chart patterns also has a high failure rate.

there is also the difficulty in testing the validity of these patterns as sometimes they don't show up enough to test statistically. if you're looking at a pattern that has only shown up a few times, that's not really testable data.

Cobra has also indicated that certain patterns have a much higher rate of failure. h&s patterns tend to fail more often then say bullish/bearish pennants. someone else on the board pointed out that slanted H&S have an even HIGHER failure rate than that.

this isn't to debase TA altogether, but everyone should know some of the opposing views on it.

[BullBear52x]

Take some profit here, let the core 25% run, over expectation run so far.

[soku]

so boring. not sure what to do at this moment. maybe this afternoon we will see some tradable correction.
here is a chart for fun. can u guess what it is?

[Richarab]

TVIX made a nice AB = CD. Now it is at a critical level.
"To buy... or not to buy?"

“So foul and fair a day I have not seen” [Macbeth, Shakespeare]
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =249026794

Right!

join me luke... it.. is.. your destiny!

[jynmax]

so boring. not sure what to do at this moment. maybe this afternoon we will see some tradable correction.
here is a chart for fun. can u guess what it is?

usd.yuan?

[dcurban1]

I don't read Zero Hedge but found the headline and article funny.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/us-econom ... d-devs-abo

[BullBear52x]

Line in the sand, 125 will be challenge next tomorrow if not today.

[quientuves]

so boring. not sure what to do at this moment. maybe this afternoon we will see some tradable correction.
here is a chart for fun. can u guess what it is?

German bund yield?

[soku]

so boring. not sure what to do at this moment. maybe this afternoon we will see some tradable correction.
here is a chart for fun. can u guess what it is?

usd.yuan?

damn, do u have to be that smart? u stole all the fun
seriously, do u really follow that? both sides of the pacific accusing the other as currency manipulator. chart telling the truth

[L_T]

What books did you read and (Reader's Digest version) how did they debunk TA? I hope it was better than the "self-fulfilling prophecy" and "TA is always backwards looking" arguments I've seen in the past.

I don't think that human psychology is taken into account enough in TA. Too bad there aren't "pure" indicators for greed and fear.

i'm out of my SPY and /ES longs. holding long EUR and my long /CL. will look for a pull back to enter long SPY and /ES again or else a topping pattern to short.

SPY looks like it might be targeting the gap resistance around 124.94 from 11/10-11/11.

for those doubting TA...i spent all thanksgiving reading several books debunking the idea of TA to get a better assessment of its value after getting clobbered pretty good all year since August. the whipsaw, headline driven rallies and drops, and the fact that so much of the movement was happening in the after market hours was frustrating me to no end, and losing me a small fortune (fortune in my opinion). i'm not quite sure what i think about TA at this point - and i've used TA for the past 8-10 years i've been trading.

fundamentally the global economy is weaker than it was before, arguing for lower asset prices. but this is hardly a "trade-able" assessment.

technically, bearish setups have been failing at an inordinate rate. there are some strong arguments that technical analysis lends little to no statistical value - "luck" is unaffected by technical analysis. either you're lucky, or you're not.

what tools are we left to "trade" with without the above?

i think we ALL know 401k'ers who are realizing that "buy and hold" may NOT be the best approach to wealth management. with that being said, i am starting to become a much firmer believer in "slow finance". hot hedge fund returns, much like my own trading returns are being diminished by a market that seems irrationally driven in opposing directions.

frustrating and certainly confusing and causing doubt. this isn't the greatest mindset to be trading with, but i can't stick my head in the sand and pretend that i don't have some serious doubts with all of this. so i thought i'd just share that with ya'll out there.

[Unique]

so boring. not sure what to do at this moment. maybe this afternoon we will see some tradable correction.
here is a chart for fun. can u guess what it is?

BAC

[Petsamo]

there is also the difficulty in testing the validity of these patterns as sometimes they don't show up enough to test statistically. if you're looking at a pattern that has only shown up a few times, that's not really testable data.

Patterns that have shown up few times can be "testable data" if enough of them are gathered by going back many years.

[Al_Dente]

TVIX made a nice AB = CD. Now it is at a critical level.
"To buy... or not to buy?"

“So foul and fair a day I have not seen” [Macbeth, Shakespeare]
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =249026794

Right!

join me luke... it.. is.. your destiny!

[SB73]

i'm out of my SPY and /ES longs. holding long EUR and my long /CL. will look for a pull back to enter long SPY and /ES again or else a topping pattern to short.

SPY looks like it might be targeting the gap resistance around 124.94 from 11/10-11/11.

for those doubting TA...i spent all thanksgiving reading several books debunking the idea of TA to get a better assessment of its value after getting clobbered pretty good all year since August. the whipsaw, headline driven rallies and drops, and the fact that so much of the movement was happening in the after market hours was frustrating me to no end, and losing me a small fortune (fortune in my opinion). i'm not quite sure what i think about TA at this point - and i've used TA for the past 8-10 years i've been trading.

fundamentally the global economy is weaker than it was before, arguing for lower asset prices. but this is hardly a "trade-able" assessment.

technically, bearish setups have been failing at an inordinate rate. there are some strong arguments that technical analysis lends little to no statistical value - "luck" is unaffected by technical analysis. either you're lucky, or you're not.

what tools are we left to "trade" with without the above?

i think we ALL know 401k'ers who are realizing that "buy and hold" may NOT be the best approach to wealth management. with that being said, i am starting to become a much firmer believer in "slow finance". hot hedge fund returns, much like my own trading returns are being diminished by a market that seems irrationally driven in opposing directions.

frustrating and certainly confusing and causing doubt. this isn't the greatest mindset to be trading with, but i can't stick my head in the sand and pretend that i don't have some serious doubts with all of this. so i thought i'd just share that with ya'll out there.

Even though I haven't been torched like others I am not sure that I can connect it to my ability to avoid bad situations long and short through TA as much as I can connect it to luck. I don't know who posted earlier, but they stated they dumped all of their SDS last night. Props this time on the save, but will you be as lucky next time?

[Al_Dente]

I’ve been watching the laggards (Four Musketeers) past two weeks, here’s an update today, okay then…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =248957705

[99er]

Update

VIX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/vix_3922.html

Guess that purple WW worked.

[99er]

Update

BKX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/bkx_30.html

Bear Flag?

[Me XMan]

Fanny and Freddie?

so boring. not sure what to do at this moment. maybe this afternoon we will see some tradable correction.
here is a chart for fun. can u guess what it is?

[Al_Dente]

however, here are the “laggards” on a 60min time frame
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =249584508

“The harder the battle the sweeter jah victory.” [Bob Marley, Musician]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jsw_r0h ... re=related

[ClarkW]

Felt pretty smart getting $42.95 on the sale of 1/2 my TNA at the open....not so much anymore