12/15/2011 Intraday Watering

[CognitiveDissonance]

If Vix can hold above 25 today, bears should have a good day tomorrow.

Here's the happy VIX chart...lots of resistance...only the weekly showing somewhat of a bounce. It just doesn't want to go up right now.

yeap, lots of resistances.

But max pain dropped from 124 yesterday to 121 today
http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php

The market is just going to fool everyone, or at least me

[KENA]

Something to think about..We are chewing around here and not making progress.This seems to happen a lot befor a bigger move.Everyone is very bearish right now so take the Contrarian view and we could head up with some force.Tomorrow may be like today chew around and do nothing.After that then UP.??????? Lets see.

[Al_Dente]

before you happily calling for bulls and santa rally, please don't forget QQQ is weak, usually this is a bad sign.

minor observation--the formal period for the santa (claws) rally is between Christmas and New Years.
using 10 and 30 mas of the nyse ad line (as over bot over sold) (the 10 is fairly close to nymo--and the 30 some what close to nysi both on stock charts.i like a stock rsi on nysi as it is a pain to read (for me) otherwise.) you wind up with "if next week 19 to 23 is somewhat lame (eg doesn't have to be bad but sort of range bound with a few negative days) things will in fact set up for the period dec 26th to jan 6.
obviously these 10/30 mas are speculative in nature--but they often give very nice context for the action.
if things start to look better in here thur/friday then it gets harder to say. the major logic behind runs up or at least not caving during the claws rally is the idea that mostly pros are done for the year and hedged. thus selling is limited as cobra likes to say in thin markets selling is often limited. and while this is becoming almost shrill--there are the political factors re euro banks and year end accounting.
i am not a screaming bull just cautious about a serious sell in a thin market when everyone needs it up.

Taggard: what time frame are you using the 10/30, daily or ? Thanks

[bushwaffle]

PAGING Baron von Grinch
Don’t fall in love with that TICK. She can be sooooo fickle and cruel. When she crosses her centerline it can be just a correction, not necessarily a trend change. When the correction is over, she’ll flop right back across her zero line. I’m still testing for a better way to use her reliably for signaling turns good for multiple days, but tinker with this revised tick-guideline-setting that is not so wanky, it stays underwater when spy does (eg: last four days underwater), and crosses above zero when spy does BUT IT LAGS. (old guideline in pink, new guideline in blue).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TICK& ... =250567739

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzXKWKax ... re=related

PAGING Bushie: REALLY nice song. r u on vocals…guitar…drums???

Vocals and guitar

[giggleeyes]

OK, the 1st score I made. Let's see the 2nd score which is the key, if cannot make another higher high then bulls are over for today. Let's wait.

Hi Master Cobra,

Many people say OE tomorrow with max pain 1240 will help S&P to get there. Do you think max pain point is a good reason for bull?

Thank you,

[Cobra]

lunch time. maintain the evil plan, bulls are little weaker than I thought though. sorry I'm busy, I cannot answer any questions. maybe this will take awhile. I'll make this statement in my opening statement every morning.

[bushwaffle]

Whoa Bushwaffle is ready for the big time! Nice one

Thanks, mgmt submitting to labels in a couple weeks, fingers and toes crossed....

[Cobra]

OK, the 1st score I made. Let's see the 2nd score which is the key, if cannot make another higher high then bulls are over for today. Let's wait.

Hi Master Cobra,

Many people say OE tomorrow with max pain 1240 will help S&P to get there. Do you think max pain point is a good reason for bull?

Thank you,

I don't believe max pain in general.

[BullBear52x]

PAGING Baron von Grinch
Don’t fall in love with that TICK. She can be sooooo fickle and cruel. When she crosses her centerline it can be just a correction, not necessarily a trend change. When the correction is over, she’ll flop right back across her zero line. I’m still testing for a better way to use her reliably for signaling turns good for multiple days, but tinker with this revised tick-guideline-setting that is not so wanky, it stays underwater when spy does (eg: last four days underwater), and crosses above zero when spy does BUT IT LAGS. (old guideline in pink, new guideline in blue).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TICK& ... =250567739

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzXKWKax ... re=related

PAGING Bushie: REALLY nice song. r u on vocals…guitar…drums???

I see what you meant on TICK. well, a /ES broken got to go.

[tiki]

Longer term (coming 30 days) it appears to me a symetrical triangle is forming. Using the trendlines from July Highs and from the Oct lows, a triangle forms with an apex mid-Jan 2012. Not to say it will take that long to break, but that seems the likely scenario going forward for the coming month. The downward pressure from Eurozone combined with the Santa rally effect, will likely see the market go sideways in this trinagle until breaking after the new year. Of course it could break either way at any time.

My bias is it will break down, but only time will tell. Other thoughts /comments??

I've got that exact same triangle drawn out on my SPX/Spy charts as well. Seems like the plan..

[Al_Dente]

PAGING
PAGING Bushie: REALLY nice song. r u on vocals…guitar…drums???

Vocals and guitar

VERY NICE DUDE

[taggard]

before you happily calling for bulls and santa rally, please don't forget QQQ is weak, usually this is a bad sign.

minor observation--the formal period for the santa (claws) rally is between Christmas and New Years.
using 10 and 30 mas of the nyse ad line (as over bot over sold) (the 10 is fairly close to nymo--and the 30 some what close to nysi both on stock charts.i like a stock rsi on nysi as it is a pain to read (for me) otherwise.) you wind up with "if next week 19 to 23 is somewhat lame (eg doesn't have to be bad but sort of range bound with a few negative days) things will in fact set up for the period dec 26th to jan 6.
obviously these 10/30 mas are speculative in nature--but they often give very nice context for the action.
if things start to look better in here thur/friday then it gets harder to say. the major logic behind runs up or at least not caving during the claws rally is the idea that mostly pros are done for the year and hedged. thus selling is limited as cobra likes to say in thin markets selling is often limited. and while this is becoming almost shrill--there are the political factors re euro banks and year end accounting.
i am not a screaming bull just cautious about a serious sell in a thin market when everyone needs it up.

Taggard: what time frame are you using the 10/30, daily or ? Thanks

exactly daily 10 and 30 moving averages (from the wall street journal so single source) what's cool about this approach is that you can see the numbers being dropped in the future (eg moving average drop one in back add one in front) it's like having the math for a "smart" slow sto in advance. what's really to the point is the size of the numbers being dropped right now first 3 drops from 12-27 to 12-30 are large negatives. this implies an optimal set up up--nothing is for sure with this sort of thing--but as a background indicator it's great.

[stingrey]

[/quote]Vocals and guitar[/quote]


Excellent work!!

Only thing...I'd put my eyes on the road and hands on the wheel...

[tiki]

breaking down FYI

[bushwaffle]

]

If Vix can hold above 25 today, bears should have a good day tomorrow.

Here's the happy VIX chart...lots of resistance...only the weekly showing somewhat of a bounce. It just doesn't want to go up right now.

yeap, lots of resistances.

But max pain dropped from 124 yesterday to 121 today
http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php

The market is just going to fool everyone, or at least me

? looks like its still 124.... and maybe Cobra doesn't trade options? I have scars from max pain, numerous....

[lqiantobe]

corba is too busy to be focus on the live report

[bushwaffle]

Vocals and guitar[/quote]


Excellent work!!

Only thing...I'd put my eyes on the road and hands on the wheel... [/quote]

Yea, but then the relationship might have worked out and I wouldn't have anything to sing about.

P.S. Thanks Uncle Al

[BullBear52x]

So boring, if the bears can not take out yest. lod, I will have to see it as weak bears and may go back to cash.

[Petsamo]

Bulls making a run

[Petsamo]

We got good news ?