Cobra's Market View

SigmaEcho wrote:

Cobra wrote:dashed line is the wedge target. I don't believe this target yet. Any pullback that is not sharp is not bear attack.

Hi Cobra, do you still see any edge for the evil plan? This market is really stretching it. I think even bulls have sold and waiting for pb. Skynet must be running in overdrive.

let's see how market closes today first.

cougar wrote:

SWalsh wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:Quote from my buddy on the GS bond desk...

"What’s bizarre about this whole thing is that munis have been on a TEAR. We’ve seen some SERIOUS spread compression. Before I left for FL [this was the beginning of December] one needed to go out 5 years to 2017 to get 1% AAA yield. Now, you have to go to 2019 to go north of 1%. That is INSANE, even with the rolldown….its just bizarre to see both equities and FI rally like this."

They appear to be pushing money into equities. This is central planning attempted in most strident way we have ever seen. Eventually, blowback might be a bitch. I have no doubt the Commander-in-Thief thinks he is an economic genius and that the Dow reflects the economy.

Well, yes, it is! But how do you trade that right now?

At the current time I do not have a clue as to how to trade this that gives me an edge. I guess if I see 5 waves down and a clear three wave move bounce I will go short. But right now, I'm just looking at prices that should not be seen based upon the way we dropped from the previous highs.

trend line here. just info, I don't generally believe trend line.

cougar wrote: Hey SW! I asked you a question earlier! Did I miss your answer?

I had 3 hrs sleep so I guess I missed. Let me look and get back to you.

If I do that with anyone, please PM me as it's easy to misss a post.

Al_Dente wrote:PAGING JOEYNICKELS
Here’s messy chart with Cabot chatter on new lows…. they go on and on….just brief excerpt so I don’t forget main concept.
Also notes from other “smart cookies” below that.
Best to steal this chart, expand timeframe and see what/how it performs over longer term
good luck 2 u
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYLOW ... =240743506

PAGING TAGGARD
Thanks for NYMO, your’re talking about using 10dma on ad ($NYAD) on DAILY CHART, yes or no?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJpyG3PX ... re=related

yes daily chart--EXCEPT that i use self constructed 10 and 30 day ad line averages from WSJ data on EXCEL. i have this stuff going back to 2000 and got the idea from a very very sharp (lady) technical trader named HELENE MEISLER who was kind enough to go back and forth in email (and she posts on real money) so that i learned the subtitles of this chart.

again the advantage of doing this by hand is THAT YOU CAN SEE THE numbers about to be dropped (over the coming 10 or coming 30 days as the case may be) which allows you to estimate in the sense of "all things being equal stuff is more likely stronger here or weaker here". this takes me literally about 1 min a day and produces something that works well.

If you like and there is some way to get an email i can send the excel package i have

KENA wrote:

janez wrote:is the tide finally turning?

Who Knows..over the the last two weeks we have a steady injection of liquidity in the mkt..Right now liquidity is hi.It can't keep on forever but it can keep the pain on going..Some day the fed may stop interfering. Wait and see.One more for the bears the # of strong stocks gaining has just about topped.

Oil dropped, Gold dropped. Perhaps ...

Can't be many stops left to run at this point. Bulls will have to carry the load from here.

PAGING AL

PS obviously you can use this intra day also--which to me is great. what stockcharts has going with nymo is being able to use macd (stock settings in my case) and slo sto (5/3) which allows cross reference between 10/30 ad and nymo. it amounts to two ways to look at close to the same data.

SWalsh wrote:

cougar wrote:

SWalsh wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:Quote from my buddy on the GS bond desk...

"What’s bizarre about this whole thing is that munis have been on a TEAR. We’ve seen some SERIOUS spread compression. Before I left for FL [this was the beginning of December] one needed to go out 5 years to 2017 to get 1% AAA yield. Now, you have to go to 2019 to go north of 1%. That is INSANE, even with the rolldown….its just bizarre to see both equities and FI rally like this."

They appear to be pushing money into equities. This is central planning attempted in most strident way we have ever seen. Eventually, blowback might be a bitch. I have no doubt the Commander-in-Thief thinks he is an economic genius and that the Dow reflects the economy.

Well, yes, it is! But how do you trade that right now?

At the current time I do not have a clue as to how to trade this that gives me an edge. I guess if I see 5 waves down and a clear three wave move bounce I will go short. But right now, I'm just looking at prices that should not be seen based upon the way we dropped from the previous highs.

Interesting! Thanx!

A few gap stats while we are waiting for the robots to finish their work. I need to do some more work on this, but here are some initial findings
Last 264 days
139 ups or 52.7% of the time averaging 0.63%
125 downs averaging -0.62%
Number of gaps up > 1% 29
Number of gaps down < -1% 28

Bulls have 7 gaps higher than 1% since the last bear gap of more than 1%.
Bears have not had a down gap > -1.0% for 38 sessions and counting

janez wrote:

KENA wrote:

janez wrote:is the tide finally turning?

Who Knows..over the the last two weeks we have a steady injection of liquidity in the mkt..Right now liquidity is hi.It can't keep on forever but it can keep the pain on going..Some day the fed may stop interfering. Wait and see.One more for the bears the # of strong stocks gaining has just about topped.

Oil dropped, Gold dropped. Perhaps ...

Oil has somewhat de-coupled from the over-all markets, but still has an effect, and Gold/Silver still tied more in a reactionary manner, or foretelling something, so I'm with you...

SB73 wrote:A few gap stats while we are waiting for the robots to finish their work. I need to do some more work on this, but here are some initial findings
Last 264 days
139 ups or 52.7% of the time averaging 0.63%
125 downs averaging -0.62%
Number of gaps up > 1% 29
Number of gaps down < -1% 28

Bulls have 7 gaps higher than 1% since the last bear gap of more than 1%.
Bears have not had a down gap > -1.0% for 38 sessions and counting

Thanks. I'm praying for a 1.5% gap down and that should do it.

Cobra:
Do you have chiosc on daily? is it extreme high?

PAGING SWALSH
You are describing situations and activities that have been going on for years/decades in varying degree and intensity. I don’t see it as NEW. I see it as same old/same old and I just try to plod along and grab my little chunk of it. And thanks for your reference to 1987. I did see it with my own eyes and spent days trying to explain to clients exactly what Mutual Funds “forward pricing” really meant and how/why it destroyed them with their prescient early morning sell orders on that one single day, and how they should reconsider ever buying another mutual fund, or perhaps never check a box that says “mutual funds.”
[And as an aside, I saw the “recent” inception of ETFs as a godsend….”real” liquidity… by comparison at least].
And then explaining to other 1987 clients what the exact definition of “at or through your stop price” really meant on stop orders, and how it destroyed them on that one single day….bla bla bla
I appreciate your posts, I just can’t get irate about it anymore….we’ve seen it all before….you know we have....and we see it again, perhaps disguised in a different costume…and now back to work…

Al_Dente wrote:PAGING JOEYNICKELS
Here’s messy chart with Cabot chatter on new lows…. they go on and on….just brief excerpt so I don’t forget main concept.
Also notes from other “smart cookies” below that.
Best to steal this chart, expand timeframe and see what/how it performs over longer term
good luck 2 u
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYLOW ... =240743506

PAGING TAGGARD
Thanks for NYMO, your’re talking about using 10dma on ad ($NYAD) on DAILY CHART, yes or no?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJpyG3PX ... re=related

Great chart Dr. Al. Thanks. Consider it stolen.

SB73 wrote:Since I don't know squat about elliot wave or at least enough to ever produce any semblance of a count here is a question. If this is Wave III why so many divergences? I thought Wave V established the divergences.

Perhaps because it's a "subdivided" 3rd wave containing multiple Wave Vs of its own.

Thanks Cougar, here a different view:

Al_Dente wrote:PAGING SWALSH
You are describing situations and activities that have been going on for years/decades in varying degree and intensity. I don’t see it as NEW. I see it as same old/same old and I just try to plod along and grab my little chunk of it. And thanks for your reference to 1987. I did see it with my own eyes and spent days trying to explain to clients exactly what Mutual Funds “forward pricing” really meant and how/why it destroyed them with their prescient early morning sell orders on that one single day, and how they should reconsider ever buying another mutual fund, or perhaps never check a box that says “mutual funds.”
[And as an aside, I saw the “recent” inception of ETFs as a godsend….”real” liquidity… by comparison at least].
And then explaining to other 1987 clients what the exact definition of “at or through your stop price” really meant on stop orders, and how it destroyed them on that one single day….bla bla bla
I appreciate your posts, I just can’t get irate about it anymore….we’ve seen it all before….you know we have....and we see it again, perhaps disguised in a different costume…and now back to work…

Al, big hand, I agree 100% with what you write. It's like life, we've got to get on with what we have, with what is feasible

SWalsh wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:this market doesn't want to go down. enough said.

Think the PTB want it up? Let me remind people that this administration said it wanted all speculators out and only long-term investors in!

To reply to 57Chevy, wave 3 moves do not act like that in a channel without it having wave 3 take the channel much wider. So this should be a corrective move. But we haven't a real impulse move since the 666 low so what are we correcting?

I think I became more jaded about systems and methods that used to work after seeing that 60 minute piece!

Any questions on what just happened here? That massive computer bid/buy was out of nowhere. So why did it happen? I do not have the answer:

In this case I'd say its the 4th waves that have pushed the channel to the right.

wayne0708 wrote:Cobra:
Do you have chiosc on daily? is it extreme high?

yes I have on daily. it's not extreme.