02/03/2012 Intraday Watering

[THAT GUY]

Is these true ?

very interesting !!!

[cougar]

Check this out, if you got kill shorting here, you are dead in style.....

But...WHY? "Bears" could have avoided that easily!!!!
Updated charts:

LOL ever heard of early worms

You mean early worms get eaten?

Right!!! LOL!

[BullBear52x]

Check this out, if you got kill shorting here, you are dead in style.....

But...WHY? "Bears" could have avoided that easily!!!!
Updated charts:

LOL ever heard of early worms

You mean early worms get eaten?

Right!!! LOL!

yeap throw me more salt.

[Wallstreetrader]

How many time will hit the Resistance?

[Al_Dente]

5min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =249026794
Uempel, another crimp on 5m VIX bolingers

[xfradnex]

BAC touching 7.76 floor for third time in past 2 hrs. may collapse.

[fehro]

trendlines... fwiw... retest of channel?

[uempel]

Quatzi, looks as though your signal at 10.45 am was more precise than mine at 11 am...

It was a small signal. I am definitely intrigued by your ellipses. Noon should be interesting. Current pattern seems to be ending about then.

Well, noon was also kind of weak. Next signal should have more strength, the ellipse is more important. It points to 14:00 p.m.

(By the way, there is a strong daily signal pointing to approx. Wednesday/Thursday next week - don't have time to show it now and it ain't urgent, but it looks good.)

[Cobra]

still is Ascending Triangle, therefore the bias is up.

[uempel]

5min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =249026794
Uempel, another crimp on 5m VIX bolingers

Great chart, thanks Al. I've got to go now, hope I'll be back in time for the 14:00 move

[springheel_jack]

Some impressive trendline resistance just above on ES here:

http://screencast.com/t/0wNnhvMrZOFN

[Wallstreetrader]

BB Chart, don't know if there can go much higher

[cougar]

While Da Boyz gyrate prices….a look at a member of my “Biotech Conviction List”:
YMI, which, recently, got an uptrend confirmation.

============
Please, do your own DD. I am doing mine…

[fehro]

not the end of day yet.... but something to watch, outside of BB, hammer?

[Denali92]

Hi!

Some slightly bigger picture thoughts - I probably should comment these on the Market Outlook, but is easier here right now.

We are definitely closely following Aug 2009 and Nov 2010 analogs – which definitely supports a long term bullish call, but also suggests a pullback in to Opex, a further rally and then the end of Feb / early March will be the last good entry point for some time.

Employment report (as usual) is the key until opex.

February employment report used to be a turn (Major bottom in 2010 and tops in 2008 and 2009), but in 2007 and 2011, it just saw a rally continuation.

Anyway, looking at employment reports where we had a weekly stochastic above 90 (currently 94) and a daily RSI above 70 – currently 70, I did not find much, but it is good for the memory banks:

July 2011 – Major TOP (we were also hourly OB in the high beta names)
Jan 2011 – Rally continued
Nov 2010 – Market topped out on the Friday and then slowly rolled over the following week
Aug 2009 – Market topped that Friday and fell in to opex
May 07 – Had a minor top the following Wednesday and then pulled back 35 points….

This leaves us with two likely scenarios based on today’s report:

PULLBACK in to OPEX
Given how daily OB we are and the length of the rally (and the timing), I would guess that the most likely scenario is:

Rally tops out either today / Monday or Tuesday – We chop around next week in a broad range defined by the top part of Wednesday’s range and today’s highs

We then decline in to opex and bottom opex week. The bottom occurs most likely on either Monday or Tuesday of opex week….

This is what happened in Aug 2009 and Nov 2010 and there are definitely quite a few similarities

REAL PAIN for the BEARS scenario (and anyway who is not fully loaded on the long side)
While Feb opex and President’s Day have a mixed record for turns, last year we did rally all the way in to the Friday before President’s Day, so we could rally in to this period as well.

I think of it as slightly less likely as we never had the corrective period in January that we had in January 2011, but it is certainly possible.

Bottom line - while no one was noticing it... the character of the market changed.... that CB announcement on Nov 30th in retrospect was a key change for the market..... Until the next big accident, we will need to be thinking of this market in terms of 2009 and 2010.

-D

[Cobra]

breakout as expected. you know the target.

[Petsamo]

I see sellers

[cougar]

BTW…Today, GS downgraded VRTX …
They forgot to tell us that they were expecting an FDA decision for the CF treatment in April…and their biotech analysts never heard of “orphan drug privileges“, which were essential in hastening the approval process…
Some big buyers at the bottom of the correction, today…Guess who?!

[Cobra]

volume surge, interesting. let's wait.

[ballatines]

I do not feel good on the rise and we may see some bigger pullback in coming hours, anyone feel the same?