05/09/2012 Live Update

[TraderGirl]

The 14/15th is a turn date, so I am assuming on one of those days we might get a final spike lower...could be down to 1335ish. This bottoming process looks much like June of 2011 where we got a complex ABC pattern down, as we are getting today, and then we chopped around on the bottom before we got a spike low on 6/16, and then we bounced. I don't think we will bounce as much as we did back in 2011, but just enough to scare some bears...

Looking at the metals, they bounced around at that time as well with a final spike lower on 6/16 along with the market and then a sharp spike up. I guess we will see how it plays out this time...

From a post employment / pre opex standpoint, this analog will hang together very well if today is not the low - WHY? There have only been 3 post employment bottoms on the Wednesday after since Jan 2007 and only one since the March 2009 low and that was in July 2009....

Even in July 2009 and also last June, the Monday of opex week proved to be either a great entry point (Jul 09) or a good place to start building a position to trade around (Jun 2011).

Thanks,

-D

Looking at the strength of this bounce, looks like today could be the bottom, then next week on 14/15th we pull back but to a higher low, therefore allowing us to move higher in a potential wave "C" wave up into May 20/22nd...?? We will see how this plays out...

[Al_Dente]

All I had to do was follow my trin dots (and Cobra, and aapl, and vix, and banks)
But nooooooooooooooo I had to fight them like a crazy person
What’s the point in obsessing over the internals if u don’t use them right
Now am flat and grumpy
Anyone want to throw-down with me today is the day

THANKS TAG appreciate your words
Also, when you said (to Bachnut) 15/20/23 did you mean ema on weekly or what?

[pezhead9000]

Just say'in - a possibility

[Cobra]

aapl H&S bottom text book target. not confirmed breakout yet though.

[Cobra]

this is the max pullback allowed.

[TWT]

NDX: If above 2652 it will confirm completed the fiver off the May 1 top

[Mr. BachNut]

I think this is the rumor that has got the bulls running:

"EFSF bailout fund has decided to pay out EUR 5.2bln tranche to Greece according to an Euro-zone source."

Also, intraday McClellan Oscillator back in neutral territory now.

[taggard]

All I had to do was follow my trin dots (and Cobra, and aapl, and vix, and banks)
But nooooooooooooooo I had to fight them like a crazy person
What’s the point in obsessing over the internals if u don’t use them right
Now am flat and grumpy
Anyone want to throw-down with me today is the day

THANKS TAG appreciate your words
Also, when you said (to Bachnut) 15/20/23 did you mean ema on weekly or what?

59dots.png

mr bachnut and i are both interested in the 3 peaks domed house pattern he posted back 114am today. at issue is (assuming the whole pattern exists) where are we? to me the up and down motion in spx feels more like points 15 to 20 but it could be 21 to 22. either way the real question we are trying to answer is where is point 23. what i find attractive about this pattern is that we are so close to the 1500-1600 area. we may just die here but usually when you get that close to the top of a pattern you try it. so i like the idea of a senseless and fast move up at some point and clearly the move from 20 to 23 on the chart is such a move.

for reference--george lindsay the guy who came up with this pattern--wrote (single spaced typewritten) 100 pages describing it and something like 27 pages describing the move from between 10 and 14 to 21to 23. there are all sorts of alternate counts and so on. so the pattern is labeled "idealized" rendering it almost useless as an exact idea.

what is of value is the psych making the pattern up--points 15 to 20 are conflicts after a strong move up to "can we go higher or what?" about where we are right now. the mmove from 20-23 is clearly overdone stupid stuff--and that is a function of everyone believing "the all clear bell sounded" (when in fact if you waited a bit it turned out to be the first part of taps being played).

so the whole discussion is somewhat obscure--the pattern seems to be playing yet anyone looking at the bottom last year is not going to see the pattern 10 to 14 on this chart since it was much longer and more involved in reality.

but the psych is the point--are we consolidating (on a weekly or monthly) on spx setting up a move to 1500-1600 or are we choking here and about to become dust in the wind? Since mr bachnut likes nymo and nysi and these are often good to measure longer periods of time--that is why these are in the picture. to me the action on nysi seems to suggest that we have to go up to really choke badly--and that seems to fit the overall pattern.

day to day naturally you ignore this stuff and just watch the price action--but complex ta is like a car wreak and it's hard to not look at it when you are driving by. so that is what seems to be going on here re our raps.

[Petsamo]

Good news for da bears. My spreadsheet's still indicating a gap down if we finish at current levels. (Lousy probability)

[SWalsh]

How is everyone enjoying their Nintendo Game today?

I know there are a lot of lurkers so I'll explain what the computers are doing to these markets with virtually no regulation and an endorsement from the government as the banks are still likely multiples of broke if they had to mark-to-market their assets. That's why the government is allowing them to siphon from the public's national treasury. Someone pays the debt and the mistakes, and it's not "The Special People" who call Bernanke, "Benny", and Geithner, "Timmay". It's a game alright, but we are expendable pawns.

I will rarely post these HFT screens anymore as I think most people should, by now, understand this education I have been trying to provide. I'm also not renewing the service. 8 months of seeing what happened 1 second later has not shown me any benefit to knowing afterwards what I can easily detect as they often hit the mkt the other way in moments just to have run the stops they get to see. Yes, "Membership (in the government club)has it's privileges!" Here's all you need to know:

When you see a 1 minute bar that moves instantly in excess of 10 SPY ticks, a computer definitely hit it. What are they capable of? Well in the last two weeks a new record was set. 47,000 fictitious quote stuffs in 1 second. I have seen, although looking at the screen you probably missed it, the Dow go up, and down, 70 points in 1 second. That's all we have trading this. SPY trades out to, e.g., 135.xxxx. So absent commissions (however they have worked that out for their gracing America with "liquidity") they can trade for almost nothing if they have to, and get paid large fees for pass-out trades. The government has been sold that this is alos price stability. We'll see about that I suspect in the near future.

We are witnessing the beginning of The Law of Unintended Consequences where Ma and Pa Kettle took their money to live on and real randomness depends upon what little they see trading and then legally front-running it. How is that known? They never have losing days....PERIOD! If you don't trade, they don't trade. They are financial rape machines. Someone who loves communism (as long as he leads) more than capitalism came to power, and the continued destruction of the free market system was okay with him, if not eagerly endorsed. I feel sorry for you guys, and gals, who started trading after 2008 as you have no idea how if you worked hard on learning how the mkts work, and on yourself especially, you could do extremely well indeed with your investments. Now, as soon as you trade the machines add your trades to how the mkt is being positioned and if your methods are really right, they'll only bust you up about 25% of the time. Use classical TA and they sit there and wait to pull the plug on all those new traders who open the books and can't figure out what they did wrong.

Here's one last screen for a while....many more hits came after I took this screenshot. And the one at 14:15 time that dropped SPY 26 ticks? That had 6 rapid hits with the first one being almost 900 stocks. 6,000 stocks listed (or there about)....do the math and you'll see they use everything for manipulation.

And BTW, I hope everyone has learned that elections have consequences. You're looking at them. "Beretta" is not here with his bird singing, "Don't do the crime, if you can't do the time". And if caught, "For the purpose of closing this investigation, and without admitting guilt or innocence, the respondent agrees to pay the amount of....", is just a cost of engaging in a very lucrative business where you are a crook. Many of the heads of these so-called "banks" should be on trial. And anyone wanting a part of that should be listed somewhere in the DSM-IV manual.

P.S. I'll bet they really try to hold SPX 1200....it's an election year. And I keep reading how well they do. Hmm....seems to me that this year's election based on past results has a variable that no pollster will consider.

[rpccharts]

THE DOLLAR IS STARTING ITS RUN TO 82 after testing a pullback to YESTERDAYS HIGH.

SHORT PMs & EQUITIES as noted earlier - the swing volume on retracements on dailies is pitiful.

[Cobra]

this pullback is a little bigger than allowed, no good for bulls, here's the evil plan, let's see.

[cougar]

AAPL => up...but watch the relative volume:

[MrMiyagi]

P.S. I'll bet they really try to hold SPX 1200....it's an election year. And I keep reading how well they do. Hmm....seems to me that this year's election based on past results has a variable that no pollster will consider.

1200? You're aiming too low; at this point it has no reason of being where it is except by propping. Look around you and globally; who has money? The rich and their politician friends. Oh and the drug dealers. Same people...

Great post by the way, appreciate your taking the time to write even though I'm always confused by your Chaz Bono-esque avatar.

[Cobra]

aapl might be an ascending triangle here, so the bias is up, for now.

[Al_Dente]

Baron von MoneyMan gets the prize for weekend notice that there were too many bears on board.
The simplest stuff is so often the best….we didn’t even need a poll for that one…
But 30, 60 min charts show that bulls have a lot to prove before we can call the game…
I’m fine now, thanks 4 asking

[PS: 30 min here......but glance at Cobra's ChiOsc on the 60min]

[BullBear52x]

I am looking for some bullish sign that I can take advantage of just like any dip buyers were, but......not a chart like this.

I am going for a walk what a BOING day!

[SWalsh]

P.S. I'll bet they really try to hold SPX 1200....it's an election year. And I keep reading how well they do. Hmm....seems to me that this year's election based on past results has a variable that no pollster will consider.

1200? You're aiming too low; at this point it has no reason of being where it is except by propping. Look around you and globally; who has money? The rich and their politician friends. Oh and the drug dealers. Same people...

I think you meant 1200 was too high as they will be seeing lower prices.

Great post by the way, appreciate your taking the time to write even though I'm always confused by your Chaz Bono-esque avatar.

Thanks....I'll tell Cher and say a prayer to the guy who caught a tree

I might need to change my avatar to Gary Oldman as George Smiley so as to not confuse you as to my gender. Have you see "Leon: The Professional", and have you played that clip? The scene as to why he says, "I told you" is great, as his frustration which is why he screams, "EVERYONE". Good ending of the movie too.

[rpccharts]

KEEP SHORTING THE MINERS - GDX IS HEADED TO 150 - PAULSON THE HEDGE FUND MGR WHO HOLD MUCH OF THIS JUNK IS IN FORCED REDEMPTION MODE 100s OF MILLIONS OF SHARES.

[BullBear52x]

any thing under 5 DMA is bearish, Bulls close but no cigar. I'll be back before close I hope unless a drink is goooooooddddd.