05/25/2012 Live Update

[TraderGirl]

Got a P bar to 131.53


Should we believe it ???

You got a chart? Miyagi, any p-bars???

Exist on TDameritrade.

I am sorry but do not how to get that chart here

Are you on a Mac or PC?

[BullBear52x]

Dr. Al why do you think my charts are deceptive? how? when you looking forward not the back ward looking.

[BullBear52x]

here

[ken_d17]

Got a P bar to 131.53


Should we believe it ???

You got a chart? Miyagi, any p-bars???

Exist on TDameritrade.

I am sorry but do not how to get that chart here

Are you on a Mac or PC?

PC

[ken_d17]

here

Thanks BB

[TraderGirl]

Got a P bar to 131.53


Should we believe it ???

You got a chart? Miyagi, any p-bars???

Exist on TDameritrade.

I am sorry but do not how to get that chart here

Are you on a Mac or PC?

On TD platform, up by "Symbols" on the right you can see a little icon that looks like a printer, if you click on it and then select "take picture" it will take a screen shot of your chart, then you click on "save" at the top of the screen. Then when you come back to Cobra's site, and you select "upload attachment" you can go and select that file, then "add the file", then hit submit...

[Al_Dente]

Dr. Al why do you think my charts are deceptive? how? when you looking forward not the back ward looking.

BARON “”””””everyone here is my team unless you want me out “””””
U r one crazy dude. I ALWAYS want u in

PS:
nyadv is only ~1500
spy failed at vwap
gld/slv hod high on day
$RVX hit fresh low (!!)….
ONLY a nasty sqz can save spy here….
blabla
Luv u

[ken_d17]

Got a P bar to 131.53


Should we believe it ???

You got a chart? Miyagi, any p-bars???

Exist on TDameritrade.

I am sorry but do not how to get that chart here

Are you on a Mac or PC?

On TD platform, up by "Symbols" on the right you can see a little icon that looks like a printer, if you click on it and then select "take picture" it will take a screen shot of your chart, then you click on "save" at the top of the screen. Then when you come back to Cobra's site, and you select "upload attachment" you can go and select that file, then "add the file", then hit submit...

Thank you

[knock]

Got a P bar to 131.53
Should we believe it ???

I had tos pbar last night to 131.85

[TraderGirl]

here

Thanks BB!!

[Al_Dente]

Dr. Baron
NOT deceptive bubba
Just yr trendline
Just razzing u
Trying to keep you/me awake
http://screencast.com/t/rET7mivuB

[TraderGirl]

Here we go...5 minute TSI sitting at support, bout to break down....lets see what happens...

[Al_Dente]

[Cobra]

support, key time. kind like a Descending Triangle now.

[Cobra]

descending triangle target. again, I don't believe the target.

[BullBear52x]

Dr. Baron
NOT deceptive bubba
Just yr trendline
Just razzing u
Trying to keep you/me awake
http://screencast.com/t/rET7mivuB

here is my basic chart school that I know how, see point 1 and poit two, once the trend line drawn, you place your bet, don't move them. right or wrong, go or no go will be simpler to identify, that's all me knows.

[xfradnex]

Daily Elder Updates (if closing Now). Columns Close, High, Low Elder, 2MA, ATR(10)

[taggard]

If the Euro is collapsing and nations are going to revert back to national currencies, what will happen to foreign markets?

My first thoughts are gold purchases as well as US assets. And the government's first thoughts are going to be the severe limiting of gold purchases and severe restrictions of their currency leaving the country.

The Euro's demise seems inevitable, if not known to be eventual when it was created. Now, what's the timeframe and it's effects?

Thoughts?

(broad response and some stuff i think is interesting)

well. . .assuming the event--time wise we have to be almost there (which to me is 1 to 1000 days). again assuming the event in it's totality--as opposed to some sort of limited event--where half the dudes leave and you have this sort of 50% euro--you should start looking to buy disasters. that villa in the south of france or the island off greece etc.

further a huge move first into and then out of us assets would likely create a real long term buy in the spx for maybe 20 years. which would certainly make my day (life). anything that creates some sort of final (say for 10-20 years) shakeout of spx ideally as close to 500 as we could get--is a good thing longer term even if it is a bad thing shorter term.

so my take is that you want to carefully define your time frames when thinking about this. some sort of knee jerk action by the markets or governments is always possible--actually highly likely. but the fact is over the longer term--it just doesn't make that much difference if there is a unified currency or not. true it will be harder on German exports at least short term--and things will get complex all over. But eventually things will as usual just flow into the normal business relationships eg Germans still make better ball bearings and Italy/Spain and Greece are nice places to hang out. the color of the currency does not directly impact these "truths" longer term--shorter term could make falling asleep on a beach some place more risky for 1-3 years.

another thing is that the euro zone is getting lots of press--and finally just recently the chinese stuff is catching some air. (re china notice problems seem NOT to be confined to the coastal export areas--this is DIFFERENT and not a good thing.) But what you hear little about is japan which is almost certain to default and is (in theory) the 4th largest gdp in the world. how often do you hear anyone freak over Japanese bonds? sure most are owned internally--but hey 4th largest gdp?

more to the point? ok if in fact japan does default this is going to be a real wake up call on how printing money is a solution to things. Because the only way you get a default there is "printing money is not working". so it's worth keeping a half an eye on this sitaution.


we all spend a lot of time watching current econ stuff in china and the rest of the world but really this is very short sighted. The real way out of all this is going to be the technological changes happening in the next 3-12 years or so. energy is going to change huge. medicine is going to change huge. and odds are much as i am not hot on it--food production is going to change huge. if you create enough change over a short period of time in technology--the econ stuff is just blown out of the water. So while we all do (and should) watch these events--it's critical not to really lose sight of what is going to be the larger theme over say 10-30 years. we want to trade with the trend in as many time frames as we can lay our mitts on.

having said that--would like to once again look at this money printing stuff--pushed this this several times for a reason (sorry if people find it boring)--if food inflation is 7-12% and service manufactured goods is 2% printing money is a problem about 1-2 years out with compounding. because sooner or later a huge % cannot eat right.

the tendency of people to assume money printing will always work as it has is fairly uniform still. that is people all perceive risk in the same way. right now this argues for no major crashes and a "muddle though" econ situation. and it's a fact that most central banks and govs as best we can tell are thinking like this. and in fact so far the spx reflects this thinking. notice on this board how there is at the same time huge cynical view of the market as phoney--and at the same time a cynical view of govs central banks etc printing money. (or as fleckenstein says "in a democracy all roads lead to inflation"). So the logical outcome of these views is that you buy dips (we can argue about the required size of the dips).

so the perception of future outcome (based on all problems being at least mitigated by liquidity) provides the actual structure of the SPX today. and in fact since "whatever is going on now will continue till it ends--it's not crazy to play this like it lies (pun here).

But what should really bother you if you are thinking like this is that the belief is so uniform. the second risk (or risk solution) is seen by 90% of players to be a given--you get a disaster (as the LongTermCapitial and housing messes demonstrated to everyone recently). this idea is actually far more profound than just econ issues and can be seen in the idea that "germs are bad" is so popular with all sorts of anti-bacterial stuff out there down to wiping the cart you shop with. studies are showing that not being exposed to infection actually has an overall negative impact on the immune system. and there is the "other thing" which is that by actual count there are more bacteria in our bodies than cells. (we have met the enemy and he is us-pogo)

if it seems logical that there is going to be a liquidity event every time there is a problem--and you feel there are a fair number of problems in varying sizes--it seems like a good idea to look at the inverse of your primary belief. not suggesting you discard the primary belief--but that you try to find problems with it. The odds of a problem with the liquidity approach being the universal solvent seem huge to me--and what i get is is the dips are still going to work--but there are going to be some very large dips--maybe over short periods of time.

summery--not sure about euro exploding totally--but if so buy south of france. fast move into us assets will likely be a disaster slightly later on. that disaster could very well set up a 20 year bull market. the whole econ view point is good to understand but will be blown out of the water by coming technological change esp in energy--medicine and food (sigh) production. (hint--nobody talks about this everyone discusses "the greek thing" the risk is clearly to the upside here)

US gov or any other gov acting stupid is very possible short term--but will fail as it always does and change. Be xtreamly careful of the idea printing money will smooth things out (muddle though) not because it cannot happen but because almost everyone believes it is is evidenced by the minor decline in spx despite the fairly hideous stuff out there. if there is a problem with liquidity being the universal solvent--it is likely to create (or be created by) a series of social issues which themselves can create huge vol down to say spx 500 worst case or maybe up to 1650 or so best case (all of this over the next 3 years). (for example like The Mitt and congress deciding that markets can regulate themselves and holding back on liquidity for a while at just the wrong time--or Germany doing the same thing--or even china acting just a bit off etc--timing is everything--it always costs more later)

above all when looking at your ideas and beliefs remember at all costs that cognitive dissonance has a face. . .and you must make a friend of cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance and confusion must be your friends. If they are not. . .then they are enemies to be feared. They are truly enemies.

have a really good weekend and lets see what happens roughly around the jobs report in june--we cannot control euor bond creation--but a 3rd substandard jobs report infront of an election in june is interesting--esp when coupled with china.

good luck with your trades everyone

[xfradnex]

Check CBOE stock

[Cobra]

resistance is clear on the 1 min chart.