11/14/2012 Live Update

[Me XMan]

Give me 10 more points down and I'll cover

[SB73]

Bet on a reversion to mean.

What needs to happen to make you want to place bets on a gap up or gap down ?

Not sure why the data posts that way, but the colums are # of trading sessions, gap up, gap down, % up (frequency of gap higher), up Avg (% higher on gap up) down Avg (% lower on gap down).

This data is 3 days old, but it doesn't change the overall conclusions. Also, I believe it to be materially correct, but there may be some errors.

Conclusions 1- Gaps higher occur about 55% of the time. Gaps down are generally just slightly larger than gaps higher. Gaps generally average about 0.5%. Some additional conclusions not shown here are that on average the market closes higher than open 53.5% of the time over the last 3,000 trading sessions. My count also shows 169 gaps higher of 1% or more in the last 3,000 sessions vs 182 lower.

Gap Up Gap Down % Up Up Avg Down Avg
Last 10 5 5 50.0% 0.43% -0.29%
Last 25 13 12 52.0% 0.38% -0.30%
Last 50 28 22 56.0% 0.32% -0.25%
Last 100 54 46 54.0% 0.38% -0.33%
Last 250 131 118 52.6% 0.46% -0.40%
Last 500 262 236 52.6% 0.51% -0.51%
Last 750 397 350 53.1% 0.51% -0.51%
Last 1000 566 495 53.3% 0.63% -0.68%
Last 1500 805 685 54.0% 0.56% -0.62%
Last 2000 1086 898 54.7% 0.48% -0.52%
Last 2500 1367 1113 55.1% 0.44% -0.47%
Last 3000 1604 1373 53.9% 0.45% -0.49%

[fehro]

RUT just collapsing here...

heading for the gap

[gappy]

"The bottom line is that the Fed is leaving no stone unturned but there still is the real question of the marginal impact on the economy. Vice-chair Yellen earlier indicated a possible switch in guidance but regional Fed presidents are pushing the idea that it is time for the economy to get some help from fiscal policy-that marginal gains from loose monetary policy have played out."
From FOMC recap. The law of diminishing returns all too evident?

[Cobra]

members only update at 2:55pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2012/11 ... ay-update/

[skittlesmds]

Not sure about anyone else but I'm ready for a rally. All this negativity even if it is profitable (being short) puts me in a bad mood.

[SB73]

I use a black jack trick once an imbalance starts to occur I will place a $10,000 bet the opposite way. If I lose, the next gap I have $20,000 on it. If I lose, I play $40,000 on the next. If I lose, I play $80,000 on the next one.

Bet on a reversion to mean.

What needs to happen to make you want to place bets on a gap up or gap down ?

Not sure why the data posts that way, but the colums are # of trading sessions, gap up, gap down, % up (frequency of gap higher), up Avg (% higher on gap up) down Avg (% lower on gap down).

This data is 3 days old, but it doesn't change the overall conclusions. Also, I believe it to be materially correct, but there may be some errors.

Conclusions 1- Gaps higher occur about 55% of the time. Gaps down are generally just slightly larger than gaps higher. Gaps generally average about 0.5%. Some additional conclusions not shown here are that on average the market closes higher than open 53.5% of the time over the last 3,000 trading sessions. My count also shows 169 gaps higher of 1% or more in the last 3,000 sessions vs 182 lower.

Gap Up Gap Down % Up Up Avg Down Avg
Last 10 5 5 50.0% 0.43% -0.29%
Last 25 13 12 52.0% 0.38% -0.30%
Last 50 28 22 56.0% 0.32% -0.25%
Last 100 54 46 54.0% 0.38% -0.33%
Last 250 131 118 52.6% 0.46% -0.40%
Last 500 262 236 52.6% 0.51% -0.51%
Last 750 397 350 53.1% 0.51% -0.51%
Last 1000 566 495 53.3% 0.63% -0.68%
Last 1500 805 685 54.0% 0.56% -0.62%
Last 2000 1086 898 54.7% 0.48% -0.52%
Last 2500 1367 1113 55.1% 0.44% -0.47%
Last 3000 1604 1373 53.9% 0.45% -0.49%

[toddymc]

Hit the 161.8 extension precisely...expect a bounce sooner than later

[Petsamo]

The nice thing about my spreadsheet is if it predicts a gap down, and it gaps up, there's still the chance that the market will sell off, as if it gapped down. Today was a great example.
I could do statistics but I'm too lazy ...

I use a black jack trick once an imbalance starts to occur I will place a $10,000 bet the opposite way. If I lose, the next gap I have $20,000 on it. If I lose, I play $40,000 on the next. If I lose, I play $80,000 on the next one.

Bet on a reversion to mean.

What needs to happen to make you want to place bets on a gap up or gap down ?

Not sure why the data posts that way, but the colums are # of trading sessions, gap up, gap down, % up (frequency of gap higher), up Avg (% higher on gap up) down Avg (% lower on gap down).

This data is 3 days old, but it doesn't change the overall conclusions. Also, I believe it to be materially correct, but there may be some errors.

Conclusions 1- Gaps higher occur about 55% of the time. Gaps down are generally just slightly larger than gaps higher. Gaps generally average about 0.5%. Some additional conclusions not shown here are that on average the market closes higher than open 53.5% of the time over the last 3,000 trading sessions. My count also shows 169 gaps higher of 1% or more in the last 3,000 sessions vs 182 lower.

Gap Up Gap Down % Up Up Avg Down Avg
Last 10 5 5 50.0% 0.43% -0.29%
Last 25 13 12 52.0% 0.38% -0.30%
Last 50 28 22 56.0% 0.32% -0.25%
Last 100 54 46 54.0% 0.38% -0.33%
Last 250 131 118 52.6% 0.46% -0.40%
Last 500 262 236 52.6% 0.51% -0.51%
Last 750 397 350 53.1% 0.51% -0.51%
Last 1000 566 495 53.3% 0.63% -0.68%
Last 1500 805 685 54.0% 0.56% -0.62%
Last 2000 1086 898 54.7% 0.48% -0.52%
Last 2500 1367 1113 55.1% 0.44% -0.47%
Last 3000 1604 1373 53.9% 0.45% -0.49%

[Cobra]

guys, if possible, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[fehro]

could have a pause shortly... but dailies are ugly at this point... unless there's a huge pop at the end of day.

[Cobra]

target met. might more, wait.

[MrMiyagi]

Should I even bother today?

[Me XMan]

No rally until I say rally...

Should I even bother today?

[Cobra]

volume surge, something is happening, wait. might see rebound here.

[Me XMan]

no capitulation yet...

[BullBear52x]

Guess what is the next Fib sequence number SPY?

Hey KeiZai, on XIV " great mine think alike"

[pezhead9000]

FWIW: Divergence Thereom - A region V bounded by the surface S=∂V with the surface normal n...

[gappy]

GAP.png

[Al_Dente]

wicked negative tick…maybe minus -1300 or what ??… 1 min
massive selling … bots too
this is where sharks (NOT ME) play 4 bounce….very oversold
nydec 2600
highest I’ve ever seen nydec is 2800