Cobra's Market View

MrMiyagi wrote:!!! CANCELLED !!!

you said cancelled, so no dog cat today, all your fault.

fehro wrote:

josephli wrote:Friday opex will be very interesting. big movement very likely.

"thinking" bigger move tomorrow?.. and flat Friday?.. as big players take off early for the long weekend.. .. and I shouldn't think about market direction.. Weekly Candle will be a big battle.

my yesterday's judgement based on a higher low scenario. since today making new low then those assumptions are out of window. my current thinking will be:

1. there will be at one retest of today's low;
2. market is very oversold on all time frame.

I still expect a big bounce coming soon, but currently time signal does not support it being tomorrow. since friday's is opex then potentially a good day for huge bounce. that being said, the underlying assumption is SPX hold aug low.

“People are crazy and times are strange… I used to care, but things have changed.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9EKqQWPjyo

Whack the Mole line.

Back from the shop, short 1888. Thinking we close around 1880-1878. Stop 1892. Easy money bear train

Let's see tomorrow whether there will be capitulation.

I'm still looking for a great stock interface for a smartphone. I just want something that auto updates prices and a chart so I can let it sit on my desk and forget it. Best I got is Barrons:

http://www.barrons.com/quote/etf/us/arcx/spy

There is an interactiver chart but it does not work on my galaxy.

http://www.barrons.com/quote/etf/us/arc ... tive-chart

josephli wrote: amazing how that p bar that showed up yesterday at 189.17 was hit today. I saw it, noted it, but really did not expect it to get nailed!

was there one? i did not see Mr.M's spreadsheet.

Didn't have anything there

Unique wrote:Back from the shop, short 1888. Thinking we close around 1880-1878. Stop 1892. Easy money bear train

Out 1880

well, guess that's it for today. Thursday tomorrow has been bear friendly. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

Source:
Northy ‏@NorthmanTrader

The VIX response is very muted. considering the downdraft. Any ideas why that should be so?

Short again 1884, stop 1888

josephli wrote:Let's see tomorrow whether there will be capitulation.

support here .. 2014 lows, 2015 lows.. a few points lower 1882 on the daily.. hold and bounce and RS to max 1950-1960 then down to 1650, or.. neckline is lower and we capitulate down to 1820ish… then make a very small RS to 1890's uber bear.. then aim for 1500.. lower we go, the faster we go.. as there's a volume vacuum, especially under the 1600 level. SPX Weekly fwiw.

Still possible for a hammer on the weekly.. tomorrow/Fri .. then RS in both cases 4-12 weeks

kongen wrote:The VIX response is very muted. considering the downdraft. Any ideas why that should be so?

actually other than TLT, VIX and forex is not as dramatic as i thought would be. VIX did not break monday high.

fehro wrote:

josephli wrote:Let's see tomorrow whether there will be capitulation.

support here .. 2014 lows, 2015 lows.. a few points lower 1882 on the daily.. hold and bounce and RS to max 1950-1960 then down to 1650, or.. neckline is lower and we capitulate down to 1820ish… then make a very small RS to 1890's uber bear.. then aim for 1500.. lower we go, the faster we go.. as there's a volume vacuum, especially under the 1600 level. SPX Weekly fwiw.

Still possible for a hammer on the weekly.. tomorrow/Fri .. then RS in both cases 4-12 weeks

I agree. I am still leaning towards market will hold though i have no open positions left.

Out 1882. looks like no 1878 until later tonight. Peace!

Rejection hard at 5 dma, dips buyers should get a good message that this time is not that easy.

These are large images so you'll to right click and open them in a new tab if the right side gets cut off.