Cobra's Market View

grachu wrote:for the earth people . third push down ? bullish ? ? not small rebound means BIG REbOUND . sorry cobra can you explain this time only .

you want me to explain 3 push down? go to "getting start" something about AI Brooks, you'll see there.

Not small rebound = a little big larger rebound.

so slow today...or is it me?

Cobra,
Would be awesome if you could post some of your favorite trading books one night.

Thanks for everything you do!

Mongoose wrote:

Tabby wrote:

Mongoose wrote:

Cobra wrote:bad combination: falling Euro and rising Yen.

there is a cross-rate effect with the euro / jpy. If there is good news from Japan, this can sometimes express itself as a rising yen and a falling euro. This in turn, expresses itself negatively in the EURUSD pair. In general terms, a falling dollar in turn expresses itself as a rising US equity market.
In other words, "good news in Japan means bad news for US equities". Not all the time, of course.
A rising EURJPY currency pair usually corresponds to a rising EURUSD currency pair which usually corresponds to a rising US equity market. (Lately however, with the slowdown in the EZ and talks, or rumors, of lowering rates, the Euro has come under pressure. Also, the BOJ has been doing what it can to lower the value of its currency, including talks of intervention.)

BOJ does this once in while to seek high yields equities. It is only for few days. When they did yen intervention last year, actually stock market rallied by enery sectors.
I believe Ashraf Laidi wrote an article last year about curriency manipulation and yen intervention. If I recall, it only once that it took more than couple days and US hiked the interest rate ( 2004????), last yea,r Fed intervined and put QE2 on the table to prevent increase in interest rate. I remember it was around Sept 17ish, 2010. Maybe this is a hint for QE3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?????????????????

I will check our Laidi. Thanks for the heads up.
There are some people who think for the US to get out of this mess and create more demand is to allow the value of the dollar to drop another 20% or so. Hence QE3. I dont care. really. The FED can do QE4, 5 and 6 for all I care. I just make more and more money shorting the dollar.
And as a consumer, I live in Europe, and buy most everything on the US site of Amazon. Its incredibly cheap with the exchange rate. I have about 750 DVDs on my wish list, so eventually I will be able to buy them all for the price of 250!

I don't know much about economy but the first time that heard about Yen intervention was from this guy, click on video. SPY and many other high yeild stocks paying dividend at the begining of the month (two weeks max) since( Japan finance Adminstry not BOJ) BOJ's interest rate close to zero, they do this Yen interevention to make money off of high risk S&P 500 equities. They have done this 168 times Yen intervention,
http://watch.bnn.ca/clip348368#clip348368
If the video does not work use this site ( this is from Sept 15, 2010)
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=1877
If you are interested to read about this guy, here is more info on him,
http://www.bostonwealth.net/author/ashraf-laidi/
Last year was different. I go with whatever is in front of me and being cautious. My brother lives in Australia and it is cheap to buy things with exchange rate but cost of living is high and earning is lower but HealthCare is free.

ClarkW wrote:Cobra,
Would be awesome if you could post some of your favorite trading books one night.

Thanks for everything you do!

Frankly I didn't read lot books (no more than 5 books and most of them are unfinished). At the very beginning I did read lots of bloggers analysis.That's actually the great place to learn.

nothing to say, lunch time, will be back.

Update:

(did not post too often, just watching)
uempel, how did you get all those amazing MA #, curve fitting?

Tabby wrote:

Mongoose wrote:

Tabby wrote:

Mongoose wrote:

Cobra wrote:bad combination: falling Euro and rising Yen.

there is a cross-rate effect with the euro / jpy. If there is good news from Japan, this can sometimes express itself as a rising yen and a falling euro. This in turn, expresses itself negatively in the EURUSD pair. In general terms, a falling dollar in turn expresses itself as a rising US equity market.
In other words, "good news in Japan means bad news for US equities". Not all the time, of course.
A rising EURJPY currency pair usually corresponds to a rising EURUSD currency pair which usually corresponds to a rising US equity market. (Lately however, with the slowdown in the EZ and talks, or rumors, of lowering rates, the Euro has come under pressure. Also, the BOJ has been doing what it can to lower the value of its currency, including talks of intervention.)

BOJ does this once in while to seek high yields equities. It is only for few days. When they did yen intervention last year, actually stock market rallied by enery sectors.
I believe Ashraf Laidi wrote an article last year about curriency manipulation and yen intervention. If I recall, it only once that it took more than couple days and US hiked the interest rate ( 2004????), last yea,r Fed intervined and put QE2 on the table to prevent increase in interest rate. I remember it was around Sept 17ish, 2010. Maybe this is a hint for QE3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?????????????????

I will check our Laidi. Thanks for the heads up.
There are some people who think for the US to get out of this mess and create more demand is to allow the value of the dollar to drop another 20% or so. Hence QE3. I dont care. really. The FED can do QE4, 5 and 6 for all I care. I just make more and more money shorting the dollar.
And as a consumer, I live in Europe, and buy most everything on the US site of Amazon. Its incredibly cheap with the exchange rate. I have about 750 DVDs on my wish list, so eventually I will be able to buy them all for the price of 250!

I don't know much about economy but the first time that heard about Yen intervention was from this guy, click on video. SPY and many other high yeild stocks paying dividend at the begining of the month (two weeks max) since( Japan finance Adminstry not BOJ) BOJ's interest rate close to zero, they do this Yen interevention to make money off of high risk S&P 500 equities. They have done this 168 times Yen intervention,
http://watch.bnn.ca/clip348368#clip348368
If the video does not work use this site ( this is from Sept 15, 2010)
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/?a=1877
If you are interested to read about this guy, here is more info on him,
http://www.bostonwealth.net/author/ashraf-laidi/
Last year was different. I go with whatever is in front of me and being cautious. My brother lives in Australia and it is cheap to buy things with exchange rate but cost of living is high and earning is lower but HealthCare is free.

Thats very kind of you. Thank you. I will check them out.

I read this religiously

http://www.economist.com/

Wedge within a wedge within a wedge. Fascinating structure. Imminent breakdown (-up). ChiOsc says down. NYMO says down. What about Benny and his jets?

At this level, I started to liquidate some of the long positions, which performed well. Also, I initiated a few short positions.
I do not know when the downturn will occur, but 2 charts tell me that this could happen soon:
1: SPX Waves
2: SPX 2 Fans.

ClarkW wrote:Cobra,
Would be awesome if you could post some of your favorite trading books one night.

Thanks for everything you do!

http://www.traders-library.com/ has a ginormous library of FREE books, good and bad, classics (Jesse Livermore), and fringe (get rich quick). The site is a bit hinky, with really sloooooooow downloads…….

SPX Waves

SPX 2 Fans

Nice "avatar", Anaconda! LOL!

Thanks Al Dente, will definitely check that out tonight

Al_Dente wrote:

ClarkW wrote:Cobra,
Would be awesome if you could post some of your favorite trading books one night.

Thanks for everything you do!

http://www.traders-library.com/ has a ginormous library of FREE books, good and bad, classics (Jesse Livermore), and fringe (get rich quick). The site is a bit hinky, with really sloooooooow downloads…….

Thanks, Mongoose.

cougar wrote:At this level, I started to liquidate some of the long positions, which performed well. Also, I initiated a few short positions.
I do not know when the downturn will occur, but 2 charts tell me that this could happen soon:
1: SPX Waves
2: SPX 2 Fans.

I agree with you ..Went short SPY about 20 min ago.Will buy SPY calls for protection later.

still nothing to say, I have feeling where the market would go but no evidences so no blah blah here. Let's watch the green line below first.

cougar wrote:Nice "avatar", Anaconda! LOL!

Thanks, Cougar. Did it in deference to our hopefully temporary Fed Chief. Anyway, I like your charts even better. I'm strategically aligned with your EW count. I think the turn is close for the 5th to begin.
Good luck.
A.