Cobra's Market View

Fear&Greed wrote:Just a quick hello and thanks to Cobra for the board. Also, a thank you to all the other contributors. I have been lurking for a while now and have learned a bit from this board while watching the market each day.

Thanks and welcome aboard!

Question of the Day

Do you have a pair of clankers or are you still sporting mouse-sized nerfs?

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=196636

soku wrote:

KENA wrote:Watch the 1278 area..This may be hard to break the first time.

Soku..Cat is back on my radar for a coming short.I know CAT is one of your favorate.Don't let the CAT get away.

nice catch man. not sure go short now or waiting till monday. u pick it based on ta or anything else?

It is pushing the top of the its up channel and ready for PBOH..I have not got any yet ,watching the mkt.If it pops up to 1300 area Cat may go with it.Waiting and watching.

soku wrote:

soku wrote:try again. es need to clear 1274-1276 area one more time

1276 sup? i took half off. still remain bearish

it's coming. this time watch 1273.75

tdo722 wrote:
why didn't u short at 1292 but wait until 1257 to short? i'm puzzled? wave 3 ended at 1292 which is 161.8% retracement exactly of leg1 or wave 1.

Dont see that, tdo. Can you give me the numbers ? Thanks

now you know the rule, the 2nd test always is key, because you Earth poeple, blah blah blah, I don't want insult you Earth people again, we Martian people are very polite. so watch the green line below.

Swept feathers off patio
Internals: wuss bull advancers, vix and tick speaking loud and clear
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYDEC ... =246211365

soku wrote:

soku wrote:

soku wrote:try again. es need to clear 1274-1276 area one more time

1276 sup? i took half off. still remain bearish

it's coming. this time watch 1273.75

You have additional edge now, since I am turning bullish and feel so much like to add my long position
my inpulse was actually right this time, but i was desciplined not to add . well i will keep desciplined.

SPX
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/spx_3606.html

Here we go.

99er wrote:Question of the Day

Do you have a pair of clankers or are you still sporting mouse-sized nerfs?

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=196636

That explains why financials have been rallied since Oct 4.
But Obama just announced that he intends to "refinance" a bunch of home mortgages (again) and the primary beneficiary of doing so will be not you but the banks as that program includes a waiver of any fraud claims against the original mortgage so it cannot be "put back" on the originator.

Cobra wrote:now you know the rule, the 2nd test always is key, because you Earth poeple, blah blah blah, I don't want insult you Earth people again, we Martian people are very polite. so watch the green line below.

Cobra, are you one of the alien agent? what is your code name?

SPX now at 1279.82, update:

Cobra wrote:now you know the rule, the 2nd test always is key, because you Earth poeple, blah blah blah, I don't want insult you Earth people again, we Martian people are very polite. so watch the green line below.

You are so young to be so wise and smart.

barbaragull wrote:

soku wrote:

soku wrote:

soku wrote:try again. es need to clear 1274-1276 area one more time

1276 sup? i took half off. still remain bearish

it's coming. this time watch 1273.75

You have additional edge now, since I am turning bullish and feel so much like to add my long position

i guess we can still get alone since we are on diff time frame. i never go to sleep with any open trade.
i am guessing bunch of stop gain orders are parking above 1270. maybe between 1270-1273. really wish i could see the firework tonight

waverider wrote:

Petsamo wrote:Europe is closed. US is free to rally - or not.

Petsamo, thanks for the information regarding close > open translates to 60% chances of a gap down (and reverse if the close < open). Do you have any links with info that confirm this?

I did a spreadsheet using Yahoo historical prices of SPY from 1/29/1993 to the present. My brain isn't functioning as well these days and I'm having a problem remembering how I did it.

Basically,
if the close falls in the top 10% (difference between low & high intraday prices), the probability of a gap down is 50%.
If the close falls in the top 5%, the probability of a gap down is 55%.
If the close falls at the very top (the intraday high), the probability of a gap down is 60%.
On the inverse, just reverse the above.

Because the probabilities are lousy, you have to revert to a common sense guess. If we are sitting too high, like yesterday, a gap down makes more sense, even though we dropped well off the intraday high.

uempel

Nice chart!

this is what I mean when I say wussie bear wussie bull (pink circle)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =245360380

BullBear52x wrote:

Cobra wrote:now you know the rule, the 2nd test always is key, because you Earth poeple, blah blah blah, I don't want insult you Earth people again, we Martian people are very polite. so watch the green line below.

Cobra, are you one of the alien agent? what is your code name?

cobra, the tag of yr superman outfit is out. it reads, urrrr


made in china.

New here. Hope my first post on the anniversary of the '29 crash doesn't do anything to the market Just want to thank Cobra and all the contributors for your amazing work here each day. You guys have taught me a lot.

looks like my last post didnt make it here... checking this...