Cobra's Market View

Me XMan wrote:I have several that I follow:
http://www.zerohedge.com/
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
http://market-ticker.org/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

L_T wrote:OK guys help me out. If there was only one blog or site you could read regularly (besides Cobra's of course) which would it be? One of my "go to" sites called it quits at Christmas and I feel like I've lost a major source of information. Thanks in advance.

I could plug mine (heh) but I for me this site is must reading every week.

http://sibileau.com/martin/

Martin Sibileau graduated from the Universidad de Buenos Aires in 1997, with a BA in Economics. He holds a Masters in Finance from the Centro de Estudios Macroeconomicos (Buenos Aires, Argentina) and a Masters in Business Administration from the Richard Ivey School of Business (Univ. of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada).

Mr. Sibileau currently works as Director for the Loan Portfolio Management team of a major Toronto-headquartered financial institution.

Since 1997, he has held various positions in the areas of corporate finance, strategy consulting, international banking, commercial banking and risk management.

Met Martin my last time on one of my visits to Toronto in the fall. He experienced hyperinflation in Argentina and draws many parallels between what happened in Argentina to today.

He posts once a week and his blog is a true gem out there.

Believe this is the very beginning of down move,no one day sell off

Italy 10-yr may jump over 7% tomorrow. It's staying at 6.86% today.

johnnywa wrote:Bull looks D.O.A. could not get decent retrace all day,high dollar, 10 yr Italian bond Acution tomorrow,can we stop this accelerating car on a dime going downhill?

Me XMan wrote:Something is very smelly over Euro land. Especially with ECB and banks.

You have no idea how bad it is getting. Working on the 2012 commentary now and uncovered some interesting information in the last week which requires a big addition.

In the last week Japan has signed swap agreements with India and China and will be the first sovereign nation to issue Yuan denominated foreign government bonds in China.

There is a lot of activity just below the surface being caused by the European banks deleveraging.

dcurban1. Do you have prediction for Europe banks?

dcurban1 wrote:

Me XMan wrote:Something is very smelly over Euro land. Especially with ECB and banks.

You have no idea how bad it is getting. Working on the 2012 commentary now and uncovered some interesting information in the last week which requires a big addition.

In the last week Japan has signed swap agreements with India and China and will be the first sovereign nation to issue Yuan denominated foreign government bonds in China.

There is a lot of activity just below the surface being caused by the European banks deleveraging.

Happy new year Cobra, there was 7 red hourly bars on spx again. If I remember correctly that is significant?

So honey...what's for lunch today?

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/diplomacy.html

Besides a cartoon.

Have a good one.

Now I am eyeing 123.5

not looking good... a sharp move on the hour?

so far all look like bear flag.

Me XMan wrote:dcurban1. Do you have prediction for Europe banks?

dcurban1 wrote:

Me XMan wrote:Something is very smelly over Euro land. Especially with ECB and banks.

You have no idea how bad it is getting. Working on the 2012 commentary now and uncovered some interesting information in the last week which requires a big addition.

In the last week Japan has signed swap agreements with India and China and will be the first sovereign nation to issue Yuan denominated foreign government bonds in China.

There is a lot of activity just below the surface being caused by the European banks deleveraging.

It is a very complex situation. Without giving too much away the banks are locked out of the capital markets and need to raise capital, hence the new program announced a couple of weeks ago. Everyone is trying to figure out who will fall with Der Speigel publishing an article a few weeks ago suggesting Germany's second largest bank, Commerzbank, may need a bailout or nationalization because of sovereign debt holdings.

My best guess is that at least one mid to large scale bank, a surprise until afterwards when everyone claims they knew it would fall, collapses.

;

TraderGirl wrote:

heavenskrow wrote:

knock wrote:

heavenskrow wrote:S&P Barra Value Index as of yesterday...
sure looks like a massive H+S forming

Sorry for a dumb question: What does it impact S&P? I don't know this index. Thanks!

well because its mainly a part of the whole market...and the S&P could also be setting up the same pattern.
In fact if you take a look at the S&P neckline from march low to June low and then copy and paste that on the feb shoulder, you got the target for the right shoulder...and that was why I was able to go short from that date catching the whole move down. Now I am applying the same method to a lot of indicies....and its quite interesting how a lot of indicies are setting it up.

Hk, do you post any of the above mentioned charts on your "donator" site?

Thanks HK, like your charts, follow your moves. Im more of a swing trader, but trying shorter time frames. I mostly look for good risk/reward setups and go mostly all in, but in this enviro, I also want to take advantage of smaller shorter duration...?? Wondering what % of portfolio you use for short duration (day or more) trades....?

Looking for a 5. Here is a possible count for you elliot wavers.

In addition, the CEO of Bank of America said last week that they are prepared for whatever disruptions are ahead of us.

Not exactly reassuring language.

What is on balance sheet does not worry me. It is the stuff that sits in the dark corner off balance sheet.

EURUSD has a much cleaner-looking bear flag.

Is this going to be it and go dn from here or are we going to go up one more time for an "E" move to test the recent highs then dn.I may be wrong but I am leaning to one more push up to finish the "E" move.Lets hear some comments. My Stock research is turning up more shorts..Longs are thin.(Swing Trades)

TraderGirl wrote:;

TraderGirl wrote:

heavenskrow wrote:

knock wrote:

heavenskrow wrote:S&P Barra Value Index as of yesterday...
sure looks like a massive H+S forming

Sorry for a dumb question: What does it impact S&P? I don't know this index. Thanks!

well because its mainly a part of the whole market...and the S&P could also be setting up the same pattern.
In fact if you take a look at the S&P neckline from march low to June low and then copy and paste that on the feb shoulder, you got the target for the right shoulder...and that was why I was able to go short from that date catching the whole move down. Now I am applying the same method to a lot of indicies....and its quite interesting how a lot of indicies are setting it up.

Hk, do you post any of the above mentioned charts on your "donator" site?

Thanks HK, like your charts, follow your moves. Im more of a swing trader, but trying shorter time frames. I mostly look for good risk/reward setups and go mostly all in, but in this enviro, I also want to take advantage of smaller shorter duration...?? Wondering what % of portfolio you use for short duration (day or more) trades....?

Haha our trading styles are pretty much the same then.

Even for short duration trades....it usually consists of 100% of my portfolio.

I don't mind losing 2-3% to make 12-17% and on a day trading time-frame, the market quickly tells you if you are wrong or right which is great....And usually for me, these day-trades eventually evolve to the swing positions if the market keeps adding more reasons for you to hold...

But if I had bigger capital..this strategy would be way too risky and I would definitely minimize the risk by spreading it around...However since my capitals only about a college tuition amount...I am able to use the not so wise approach.

johnnywa wrote:Believe this is the very beginning of down move,no one day sell off

Beggining of down move? likely

No one day sell off? maybe not -- starting to smell like gap up open tomorrow and test today HOD especially if close today at LOD... as, Trin too high -- same set up as 12/8 -- one day large drop on high Trin followed next day 12/9 with gap up open and higher close -- then followed by resumption of down -- but must close near LOD with trin 3.5+ for gap up open possibility

another try on the day low, the more trials the more difficult to hold the support. let's see.

Hi Cobra,

In the last 80 year the 3rd presidential years have been up 18 out of 20 times, so I have read. So odds favor SPX closes the year above 1257. How do you value these stats?

Thanks