Cobra's Market View

SPX: If it is a wave (B) we will know it tomorrow since price should sink with an impulsive wave (C), if Ben allows it oherwise the March 6 up leg is not finished.

Below the idea if an Ending Diagonal

Bears better begin to practice some vodoo on Ben

Hello all!
I want to give a grateful Thank You to Cobra for all his hard work, and for creating this fantastic board to exchange info with many other talents! His contributions are professional and his process and style are of the utmost in diligence. I too am yet another viewer who as been stocking the board without officially joining that has finally come around to doing so. And upon joining am also another who will commemorate Mr. Cobra. I believe I discovered it through a Market-watch article about VIX? or maybe even Elite trader forums roughly 8 months ago? And to be honest I realized that I'm obsessed with this board and read it whenever I get the chance. I think I'm ADDICTED! Thus resulting in joining. I heart the posts of Cobra and others! Keep up the good work. Though I won't leave messages regularly I will say something or leave charts if it needs to be said. There is many things to share so in time I will. Well, good luck all.

theRASPYone wrote:Hello all!
I want to give a grateful Thank You to Cobra for all his hard work, and for creating this fantastic board to exchange info with many other talents! His contributions are professional and his process and style are of the utmost in diligence. I too am yet another viewer who as been stocking the board without officially joining that has finally come around to doing so. And upon joining am also another who will commemorate Mr. Cobra. I believe I discovered it through a Market-watch article about VIX? or maybe even Elite trader forums roughly 8 months ago? And to be honest I realized that I'm obsessed with this board and read it whenever I get the chance. I think I'm ADDICTED! Thus resulting in joining. I heart the posts of Cobra and others! Keep up the good work. Though I won't leave messages regularly I will say something or leave charts if it needs to be said. There is many things to share so in time I will. Well, good luck all.

Thanks and welcome aboard!

OverUnder wrote:10 year monthly chart. Market has gone up way longer than this leg before having any meaningful pullback before. "too far too fast" means nothing in a bull market, but some people will never get that, in the process of making everyone else broke.

great move posting monthly chart. several ideas i get out of it. (1) had you gone back to 2000 it would be clear the market was actually lower than 10 years ago. if you factor inflation you can argue that if we do get to 1550ish this year stocks would be about 1/3-1/2 cheaper depending on how inflation is calculated. (2) if you add fibs to the last move up we are over the 78% fib. As a rule the market will try the last high if it makes it over 78% (in whatever time frame) it can try just a bit lower or just a bit higher--but again over 78% often try the last high. (3) are we in a bull market? certainly you can say we are in a cycle bull--but secular bull would have to wait for a breakout over the last major high AND a test from the upside down.

But the main point is it's all about time frames. The largest problem in intra day trading is often ignoring the overall longer term trend. If you are on 1 to 15 min for 6-8 hours a day--it's easy to overlook the larger picture. While it's dangerous to generalize--often on this site we find more bears than bulls. And we see various negative "emotional" statements about the idea we are going up--or why we are going up.

it may work differently for other readers--but for me frustration with market direction is a single to take a deep breath--relax--and focus on what is actually going on not what i think is going on.

evolution of species or of the market place is insanely complex--we don't even know if it is driven by attractors (moving towards something in the future) or historical trial and error (driven by the past). when you are in the middle of the situation it's hard to see exactly what the reasons for events are with a clear head. obviously HFT/fed actions/treasury/political events and so on have impact. But exactly what this is going to mean or WHAT PARTS OF VARIOUS SEEMINGLY STUPID CURRENT MOVES ACTUALLY MAKE SENSE LATER is not all that clear.

my point is paying careful attention to longer term charts really helps keep a sense of perspective as we trade futures options and 3x tools in 1-15 min intervals. And the second you find your self upset or off balance--one really good idea is to spend some time in another time frame or perspective.

VIX: will tell if SPX up leg off March 6 low has more business to the upside

Cobra, is today a MAD day? Thx.

uempel wrote:

proteus46 wrote:SPY WEEKLY

High - 156.70
Low - 66.75

Range = 89.95

Target 66.75 + (89.95 * .86) = $ 144.11

From Thomas Bulkowski
http://www.thepatternsite.com/Fibonacci.html

Problem is that every comment I read mentions 1440...

SPX 1440 would put SPY right at $144.00 (if my math is correct).
With everyone marking 1440, it seems unlikely that will be the turning point. Either we will sell off around 1430 to 1435, or we will gap above 1440 during a future morning.
We have until April 24th for the $144.11 target.

Dips are being bought folks, refer to my chart and arrows. Although, DOW and Transport havn't confirmed this new high on the spy qqq and iwm, we'll have to see tomorrow. Chances are that these indexes will follow up with new highs. After-all the market is incredibly bullish.

Buckethead wrote:This is a liquidity driven market. Understand this market has nothing to do with techinical analysis, fundamentals, macroecnomics, aapl price, nothing. It is just a function of liquidity and when bernanke says more liquidity coming YOU BUY. forget t/a, economic #'s, fundamentals.

I won't disagree, but I think you left out what is happening in the final analysis.

Enough people lost their collective minds and put in place the most corrupt administration in American history that is building a power base of oligarchs. My friends from the Ukraine say we are more of a communist nation than they are now. Everything is rigged and laws are only used to oppress people, probably like me, who dare to speak out.

We are 10% away from a bubble high in 2007 and we have cured nothing. That should be impossible UNLESS we want to prove how dumb we are a second time.

Tough to argue this brand of capitalism we have become:

"Capitalism attacks and destroys all the finer sentiments of the human heart; it ruthlessly sweeps away old traditions and ideas opposed to its progress, and it exploits and corrupts those things once held sacred".
Daniel De Leon

Ed02 wrote:Cobra, is today a MAD day? Thx.

No.

Data on VIX. I made graph with VIX values summed up (y axis) against per each Vix value occurance since 1990 (value distribution). Blue line is current level 14.26.

I have noticed that the bottom is alot easier to estimate than the tops; see trend lines on the other graphs. Risk is lowest since 07.

I was stopped out on the Dax close of the 1st hourly candle of today, where the X is. And then they came to wave my money right at the point I shorted it... They are

Jose whats your take on euro? Im little bit mixed up here, Im waiting for 1.330 and then probably Im going long

KeiZai here it is:

When trading way above 55, the 1st time it reaches 55 again there might be some reaction, specially if it's in the zone of EMA 50/ MA 99 / MA200.
In this case you have the EMA 50 right there which will hopefully provide some sort of rebound associated with the before mentioned 55 area.
If i made this trade my stop would be on an hourly close below the grey line which sits at around 1,3292.

This said we will have consumer confidence coming up in 30 minutes, so it's not a trade I will be making if it goes there before, it's just too close too our entry point now.

What I really like that trendline that comes from the MA 1st 200 test, it's not too inclined and it's just hovering around the MA 99 which gives me some added comfort, also if the price would reach there RSI would probably be around 50 - So this would be the place i would like to get in: price near trendline+MA 99+RSI around 50 with EMA 50 > MA 99 > MA 200

Cheers!