06/27/2012 Live Update

[soku]

Can't say I know where we are headed from here...charts point down, astro's negative...but window dressing, EU summit??? who knows what could happen...

But if we head down from here, looks like we could be forming H&S...?? But that could be too easy...

don't count on eu summit. rumor says there is no nothing, and market has already priced in on that. will the eu gives us any surprise? no me not think likely.

[TraderGirl]

Classic pump and dump...anyone get emails for this pump scheme??

[Al_Dente]

PAGING KING COBRA
Do u ever track the number of people on board…..versus highs or lows on SPY
Any correlation?
(I’m just flat here….and curious)

[TraderJoe]

Classic pump and dump...anyone get emails for this pump scheme??

I am sure many people got burnt bad..

[KeiZai]

Dollar hourly chart...watching possible double top

[grachu]

cobra please when you are back can you post an intra day update on apple . Is breaking down on the 5 minute chart what looked like a bull flag... It seems its all over the place... is indecisive....thank you

[OverUnder]

In my experience over the last few quarters, "window dressing" peaks 3 days before end of quarter, and then sells. I heard this explained by the T+3 trade settlement rules, hence there's no point in buying after 3 days before quarter end. I also personally feel that it's not only important to own winning instruments at the end of quarter, but also to show profits, also creating a need for sales. Overall, I kind of wonder if window dressing is just a myth. Supposedly it's so a fund can say "look, we owned stock x this quarter that did so well". I would think any fund subscriber with half a brain could find and figure out that they didn't hold it for more than a few days, if that's supposed to be the deal.

Dang, this thing that requires one to re-submit a post because someone has posted in the meantime is annoying. Cobra, can you look into getting rid of that? Sometimes I have to click "submit" 3 times before it finally takes.

Dang -- 4 times on this one.

Now 5.

Can't say I know where we are headed from here...charts point down, astro's negative...but window dressing, EU summit??? who knows what could happen...

But if we head down from here, looks like we could be forming H&S...?? But that could be too easy...

[Cobra]

I'm back, hmm, breakout on the downside, now 2 bar reversal, let's wait to see any meaningful rebound here.

[Cobra]

If you need click a few times to post, it's normal and it's function as designed, because when you do the post, someone else in the forum might post another one, so as long as when you write someone always has new post, you'll have to click again. I click lots of times everyday.

I agree with your T+3 theory and this can be proved by my observation post in the yesterday's trading signals.

And there's no things called Window Dressing. Let me find a past post, I posted, wait...

In my experience over the last few quarters, "window dressing" peaks 3 days before end of quarter, and then sells. I heard this explained by the T+3 trade settlement rules, hence there's no point in buying after 3 days before quarter end. I also personally feel that it's not only important to own winning instruments at the end of quarter, but also to show profits, also creating a need for sales. Overall, I kind of wonder if window dressing is just a myth. Supposedly it's so a fund can say "look, we owned stock x this quarter that did so well". I would think any fund subscriber with half a brain could find and figure out that they didn't hold it for more than a few days, if that's supposed to be the deal.

Dang, this thing that requires one to re-submit a post because someone has posted in the meantime is annoying. Cobra, can you look into getting rid of that? Sometimes I have to click "submit" 3 times before it finally takes.

Dang -- 4 times on this one.

Now 5.

Can't say I know where we are headed from here...charts point down, astro's negative...but window dressing, EU summit??? who knows what could happen...

But if we head down from here, looks like we could be forming H&S...?? But that could be too easy...

[Cobra]

Here's my past post on Window dressing. I copied from someone else, don't remember now, so it's not mine: http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=vi ... highlight=

To make it easy for you to read, I copy the entire post below.

As we near the end of the quarter I’ve begun to hear quite a bit about the “end-of-quarter markup” phenomenon. I’ve also received a few questions about it. The theory is that mutual funds and other large institutions tend to “mark up” the prices of securities at the end of each quarter so that their return numbers look better. I decided to take a look.

First I ran a test which showed the return of the S&P 500 on the last day of each quarter going back to 1960. Of the 186 quarter-ends over the period, 90 have had a positive last day of quarter, 94 finished negative, and 2 were basically dead even. The average win was 0.065%. The average loss was 0.06%. The net average day was 0.001%. Not even as good as an average day over the period.

I then checked to see what happened if the market sold off the few days leading up to the last day of the quarter (like now). For instance, 7 times the market sold off at least 2.5% in the last 3 days of the month. Five saw gains on the last day and two saw more losses. Unfortunately, the losses nearly eclipsed the gains. Lowering the requirement to a 1.5% selloff in the preceding 3 days gave 18 trades. 9 winners and 9 losers. Net expectancy was slightly negative.

I then looked at what happened if the S&P was down at least 3 days in a row just before the last day of the quarter. Twenty occurrences. 10 winners. 10 losers. Slight negative expectancy.

Looking at recent history rather than all the way back to 1960 did not help these studies.

No matter how I looked I was not able to find any evidence of an end of quarter mark-up in the index. Perhaps mark-ups occur in individual securities, but it’s not apparent in the general market.

Since I figured some people might be getting sick of looking at those “Myth Buster” guys, I posted some other Busters today…

[Mr. BachNut]

$ is up
GLD is up
Long bond is up
Vix is up
SPX is up

Hmmm...

[Cobra]

cobra please when you are back can you post an intra day update on apple . Is breaking down on the 5 minute chart what looked like a bull flag... It seems its all over the place... is indecisive....thank you

wait until double top confirms. I believe it'd be confirmed eventually but market is always right what I believe is not important so wait. http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/c ... /260183775;

[TraderGirl]

If you need click a few times to post, it's normal and it's function as designed, because when you do the post, someone else in the forum might post another one, so as long as when you write someone always has new post, you'll have to click again. I click lots of times everyday.

I agree with your T+3 theory and this can be proved by my observation post in the yesterday's trading signals.

And there's no things called Window Dressing. Let me find a past post, I posted, wait...

In my experience over the last few quarters, "window dressing" peaks 3 days before end of quarter, and then sells. I heard this explained by the T+3 trade settlement rules, hence there's no point in buying after 3 days before quarter end. I also personally feel that it's not only important to own winning instruments at the end of quarter, but also to show profits, also creating a need for sales. Overall, I kind of wonder if window dressing is just a myth. Supposedly it's so a fund can say "look, we owned stock x this quarter that did so well". I would think any fund subscriber with half a brain could find and figure out that they didn't hold it for more than a few days, if that's supposed to be the deal.

Dang, this thing that requires one to re-submit a post because someone has posted in the meantime is annoying. Cobra, can you look into getting rid of that? Sometimes I have to click "submit" 3 times before it finally takes.

Dang -- 4 times on this one.

Now 5.

Can't say I know where we are headed from here...charts point down, astro's negative...but window dressing, EU summit??? who knows what could happen...

But if we head down from here, looks like we could be forming H&S...?? But that could be too easy...

I think the whole idea of window dressing was most likely designed and pushed to the public by the fund managers to keep the public from selling prior to quarter end....

[Cobra]

thank you Uempel, but it's not enough. I'd be happy if the price could touch the green line below.

[Petsamo]

If anyone is placing bets on the overturning of Obamacare tomorrow, what security are you using?

[snakehead]

Can't say I know where we are headed from here...charts point down, astro's negative...but window dressing, EU summit??? who knows what could happen...

But if we head down from here, looks like we could be forming H&S...?? But that could be too easy...

don't count on eu summit. rumor says there is no nothing, and market has already priced in on that. will the eu gives us any surprise? no me not think likely.

I wish Merkel had enough courage to say "Bastante !!".
Germany should leave Euro. Pronto.

[uempel]

I'm not playing a more serious short unless this MA breaks (33 on the 60 min)

[Cobra]

WS has lots of bad idea just to coax you into buying. Such as:

buy and hold
buy low sell high
let your winner run
overbought, oversold
greedy when others fear, fear when others greedy
majorities are always wrong.

They can be right but only if you can balance the risk and reward. Unfortunately it's not that easy to balance.

If you need click a few times to post, it's normal and it's function as designed, because when you do the post, someone else in the forum might post another one, so as long as when you write someone always has new post, you'll have to click again. I click lots of times everyday.

I agree with your T+3 theory and this can be proved by my observation post in the yesterday's trading signals.

And there's no things called Window Dressing. Let me find a past post, I posted, wait...

In my experience over the last few quarters, "window dressing" peaks 3 days before end of quarter, and then sells. I heard this explained by the T+3 trade settlement rules, hence there's no point in buying after 3 days before quarter end. I also personally feel that it's not only important to own winning instruments at the end of quarter, but also to show profits, also creating a need for sales. Overall, I kind of wonder if window dressing is just a myth. Supposedly it's so a fund can say "look, we owned stock x this quarter that did so well". I would think any fund subscriber with half a brain could find and figure out that they didn't hold it for more than a few days, if that's supposed to be the deal.

Dang, this thing that requires one to re-submit a post because someone has posted in the meantime is annoying. Cobra, can you look into getting rid of that? Sometimes I have to click "submit" 3 times before it finally takes.

Dang -- 4 times on this one.

Now 5.

Can't say I know where we are headed from here...charts point down, astro's negative...but window dressing, EU summit??? who knows what could happen...

But if we head down from here, looks like we could be forming H&S...?? But that could be too easy...

I think the whole idea of window dressing was most likely designed and pushed to the public by the fund managers to keep the public from selling prior to quarter end....

[snakehead]

If anyone is placing bets on the overturning of Obamacare tomorrow, what security are you using?

Isn't an ObamaCare overturn already 'baked' into the market?
I'm thinkin' "sell on the news" (SPX to 1235?)

[OverUnder]

I might think first about what exactly might be unconstitutional about requiring all Americans to have health insurance. Sure, I understand that it's an incredibly unpalatable idea to some, maybe many. But I'm not sure what amendment of the constitution it would violate. We all have to pay taxes. We all have to obey streetlights. And God forbid you tamper with the airplane restroom smoke detector.

If anyone is placing bets on the overturning of Obamacare tomorrow, what security are you using?