10/28/2011 Intraday Watering

[Cobra]

New here. Hope my first post on the anniversary of the '29 crash doesn't do anything to the market Just want to thank Cobra and all the contributors for your amazing work here each day. You guys have taught me a lot.

Thanks and welcome aboard!

[Al_Dente]

now you know the rule, the 2nd test always is key, because you Earth poeple, blah blah blah, I don't want insult you Earth people again, we Martian people are very polite. so watch the green line below.

Cobra, are you one of the alien agent? what is your code name?

cobra, the tag of yr superman outfit is out. it reads, urrrr ....made in china.

“…Finally, the Creator made humans laugh, and when they laughed and laughed, the Creator said, ‘Now you are fit to live.’ " [Traditional Apache Story]

[99er]

RUT
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/rut_4178.html

On your mark...

[fibo618]

Cobra, Pl dont let the angry mails bother you on the low target... we appreciate all your efforts on this blog...

Curious to know if CMG is a good short, its been going up and up for the last 2 years?

Btw, I am asking myself why I pressumed you to be a woman

[Cobra]

triangle?

[Cobra]

Cobra, Pl dont let the angry mails bother you on the low target... we appreciate all your efforts on this blog...

Curious to know if CMG is a good short, its been going up and up for the last 2 years?

Btw, I am asking myself why I pressumed you to be a woman

CMG is hard call now, bullish biased though as it could be an Ascending Triangle. What I don't like is it's choppy up now which usually happens at the very last stage of a long time bull trend.

[grachu]

is this a symmetrical triangle ?

[HappyFriday]

BORING trading day !
Any joke ?

[waverider]

Europe is closed. US is free to rally - or not.

Petsamo, thanks for the information regarding close > open translates to 60% chances of a gap down (and reverse if the close < open). Do you have any links with info that confirm this?

I did a spreadsheet using Yahoo historical prices of SPY from 1/29/1993 to the present. My brain isn't functioning as well these days and I'm having a problem remembering how I did it.

Basically,
if the close falls in the top 10% (difference between low & high intraday prices), the probability of a gap down is 50%.
If the close falls in the top 5%, the probability of a gap down is 55%.
If the close falls at the very top (the intraday high), the probability of a gap down is 60%.
On the inverse, just reverse the above.

Because the probabilities are lousy, you have to revert to a common sense guess. If we are sitting too high, like yesterday, a gap down makes more sense, even though we dropped well off the intraday high.

The probabilities are still statistically significant, more likely to occur than by mere random chance. Thanks for the link.

[CMT]

Cobra, Pl dont let the angry mails bother you on the low target... we appreciate all your efforts on this blog...

Curious to know if CMG is a good short, its been going up and up for the last 2 years?

Btw, I am asking myself why I pressumed you to be a woman

CMG is hard call now, bullish biased though as it could be an Ascending Triangle. What I don't like is it's choppy up now which usually happens at the very last stage of a long time bull trend.

Draw a base line from Nov '08 until now, one it breaks trend this will be the mother of all shorts and I've been waiting patiently for a year now!

[PLUNGE]

triangle?

Cobra, The triangle pattern makes perfect sense as it signals the anticipation of the money managers and hedgies planning to do their window dressing at month end. Also markets move up into the FOMC announcement. So this triangle should produce a bullish result.

[Cobra]

triangle?

Cobra, The triangle pattern makes perfect sense as it signals the anticipation of the money managers and hedgies planning to do their window dressing at month end. Also markets move up into the FOMC announcement. So this triangle should produce a bullish result.

I cannot wait for the market to make a new high today, best if it can make a all time high.

[Grizzly]

BORING trading day !
Any joke ?

Ten years ago we had Bob Hope, Johnny Cash and Steve Jobs.
Now, we have no Cash, no Jobs, and no Hope!

[janez]

I am looking for the higher high mentioned in Cobra's report yesterday night. Will it give to us today?

[99er]

Updates

EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/eurusd_8218.html
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/es_8634.html

[grachu]

yes but the triangle can breakdown for the pullback... then possible re test of the highs and then a major pullback

[fuddleduddle]

BORING trading day !
Any joke ?

Ten years ago we had Bob Hope, Johnny Cash and Steve Jobs.
Now, we have no Cash, no Jobs, and no Hope!

That is quite good sir.

[MrMiyagi]

This is a headscratcher; Silver up 2 cents, SLV up 1.24$ and ZSL down 5 cents. These three go together like rama lama lama ke ding a de dinga a dong, remembered for ever like, shoo bop shoo wadda wadda yipitty boom de boom.
Odd...

[Al_Dente]

Hello choppy, youhoooo, Al here, come…right here http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYDEC ... =246211365

[Grizzly]

The Montana Department of Employment, Division of Labor
Standards claimed a small rancher was not paying proper wages to his help
and sent an agent out to investigate him.

GOVERNMENT AGENT: "I need a list of your employees and how
much you pay them."

RANCHER: "Well, there's my hired hand who's been with me for
3 years. I pay him $200 a week plus free room and board.

Then there's the mentally challenged guy. He works about 18
hours every day and does about 90% of all the work around here. He makes
about $10 per week, pays his own room and board, and I buy him a bottle of
bourbon every Saturday night so he can cope with life. He also sleeps with
my wife occasionally."

GOVERNMENT AGENT: "That's the guy I want to talk to - the
mentally challenged one."

RANCHER: "That would be me."