Cobra's Market View

So far it is moving as planed , could market upset me !!!

Me XMan wrote:hindenburg omen is a myth IMO.

ocassional observer wrote:Cobra, could it be that a hindenburg omen was triggered yesterday and nobody noticed?

Hindenburg Omen is a warning signal and should be treated as such. It shows that as a market is advancing the underlying stocks are showing significant weakness.

Oh, the TED spread is poised for a breakout.

http://dynamichedge.com/2011/11/23/ted- ... -breakout/

We must have bottomed; I just bought a handful of SPY puts.

POP QUIZ:
Circle one:
We sometimes / always / never use Bloomberg live TV “news” as a contrary indicator.

PS: KNOCK: U missed not one but TWO cougar silver target posts…27.41 and 30 “zone”

To all these genii here - suggest you make a pause and go to nyt.com and search the video "Umbrella Man" in context with "Kennedy assassination". Very interesting for chartists and traders, tells us to disinguish between facts and coincidences. Hope you guys enjoy it as much as I did.


-

Mr. BachNut wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:

Mr. BachNut wrote:Still short....
As a guideline, I have found that, while oversold is a buy in a bull market, it is not necessarily so in a bear market. So, with an oversold market that gets more oversold, bear market rules appear to be in effect. If so, that suggests the rally from the October low was corrective, which in turn means that the Bear Market is on and the October low may not be THE low. Keep an open mind about what could lay ahead.

Mr. Bach: I like u because your sentences are longer than mine, but they say more important things, like that one (above) for example...
“Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something.” [Plato]
Lacking any of my own, I am a dead-serious student of genius… and this board is loaded with it.

Well, gee whiz. Thank you Al_Dente. I'll return the compliment as I follow your postings avidly as well as those of several others here. A lot of great stuff. While we are led by a snake, the site is a lot like a watering hole with different animals coming for a drink. It helps to see the ideas and data provided by those who think differently. I believe Sun Microsystems used to have a slogan that went "The network IS the computer." I think that applies well here.

Cheers and Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Cobra wrote:

ocassional observer wrote:Cobra, could it be that a hindenburg omen was triggered yesterday and nobody noticed?

right, indeed. 69 / 3113 > 2.2% so just meet the rule, although normally, 75 advances are required. And the 2nd Omen is required for the confirmation.

From historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77% [The Wall Street Journal 8/23/2010 article cited below states that accuracy is 25%, looking at period from 1985], and usually takes place within the next forty days. The probability of a panic sellout was 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash was 24%. Though the Omen does not have a 100% success rate, every NYSE crash since 1985 has been preceded by a Hindenburg Omen. Of the previous 25 confirmed signals only two (8%) have failed to predict at least mild (2.0% to 4.9%) declines.
Because of the specific and seemingly random nature of the Hindenburg Omen criteria, the phenomenon may be simply a case of overfitting. That is, by backtesting through a large data set with many different variables, correlations can be found that do not really have predictive significance. The Omen is at best an imperfect technical indicator that is a work in progress
-Source: Wikipedia.

hi guys. what is the best stock/etf to use as a proxy for bears? I'm currently using spy for bulls and sh for bears. is SH can be considered a good proxy for bears?

Break SPX 1170 and we're heading to 1180 for sure...

is this a sarcasm? you bought puts at the bottom?

MrMiyagi wrote:We must have bottomed; I just bought a handful of SPY puts.

tdo722 wrote:hi guys. what is the best stock/etf to use as a proxy for bears? I'm currently using spy for bulls and sh for bears. is SH can be considered a good proxy for bears?

SSO bull, SDS bear. 2x but not as huge a decay as you'd think.

tdo722 wrote: How little? $5K portfolio like me?

200 shares short spy.

newbie_77 wrote:is this a sarcasm? you bought puts at the bottom?

MrMiyagi wrote:We must have bottomed; I just bought a handful of SPY puts.

You know how it is, you buy one way it goes the other.

wow, after the blood bath of the past 2 weeks, the investors intelligence survey is still at its most bullish since early august when the market tanked. if that's not bearish, i don't know what is.

A Cold Day In Europe

Charts regarding liquidity across the pond.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/european- ... -carbonite

TWT wrote:SPX: ....... while if we see a strong impulsive rebound then based on the following count THE BOTTOM should be in place

You expect a lower low today?

newbie_77 wrote:is this a sarcasm? you bought puts at the bottom?

MrMiyagi wrote:We must have bottomed; I just bought a handful of SPY puts.

Sometimes we can all feel like market makers; like when we buy a nice handful of puts and suddenly the market rebounds. It's magic!

Sigh. Bad week for me.

wondering if msft is a buy for 10% run in december ?

pady wrote:

tdo722 wrote: How little? $5K portfolio like me?

200 shares short spy.

Damn u got way more money than me.

Gj!

MrMiyagi wrote:

tdo722 wrote:hi guys. what is the best stock/etf to use as a proxy for bears? I'm currently using spy for bulls and sh for bears. is SH can be considered a good proxy for bears?

SSO bull, SDS bear. 2x but not as huge a decay as you'd think.

So SDS is good but not SH for bears?

tdo722 wrote:

MrMiyagi wrote:

tdo722 wrote:hi guys. what is the best stock/etf to use as a proxy for bears? I'm currently using spy for bulls and sh for bears. is SH can be considered a good proxy for bears?

SSO bull, SDS bear. 2x but not as huge a decay as you'd think.

So SDS is good but not SH for bears?

SH is fine as well, it is non-leveraged. I thought you were looking for some other options as well.