Cobra's Market View

4.88 million last buy on SPY
814 K last buy on IWM

They're gonna gap this thing up

VIX broke out of triangle today...
Looking pretty bearish....

KeiZai wrote:

xfradnex wrote:Warning tvix moving at a premium the last hr. Compare tvix to uvxy. Possible short.

? what have uvxy with tvix? premium is 20c at close they will be equal (with tvix iv), people are starting to buy short term hedge so not a right time to short vixies IMHO

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ETVIX-IV

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TVIX

Yah, I had the charts flipped. We should be very close to zero premium now.

KeiZai wrote:

xfradnex wrote:Warning tvix moving at a premium the last hr. Compare tvix to uvxy. Possible short.

? what have uvxy with tvix? premium is 20c at close they will be equal (with tvix iv), people are starting to buy short term hedge so not a right time to short vixies IMHO

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ETVIX-IV

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TVIX

Yah, I had the charts flipped. We should be very close to zero premium now.

TraderGirl wrote:VIX broke out of triangle today...
Looking pretty bearish....

By "Looking pretty bearish....", you mean for equity, right? Thx.

SPY bounced perfectly off a 4 day yellow trendline. I wouldn't be so sure that the blue bull flag is negated. In fact, it's practically a perfect bullish pennant.

Ed02 wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:VIX broke out of triangle today...
Looking pretty bearish....

By "Looking pretty bearish....", you mean for equity, right? Thx.

Yes, bearish for equities...sorry, not very clear...

TraderGirl wrote:

Ed02 wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:VIX broke out of triangle today...
Looking pretty bearish....

By "Looking pretty bearish....", you mean for equity, right? Thx.

Yes, bearish for equities...sorry, not very clear...

I do not know where the markets are going tomorrow, but I am assuming we attempt to make a new high before we turn down. That would give another higher low for the vixies needed to go lower in the markets....IMHO

xfradnex wrote:

KeiZai wrote:

xfradnex wrote:Warning tvix moving at a premium the last hr. Compare tvix to uvxy. Possible short.

? what have uvxy with tvix? premium is 20c at close they will be equal (with tvix iv), people are starting to buy short term hedge so not a right time to short vixies IMHO

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ETVIX-IV

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TVIX

Yah, I had the charts flipped. We should be very close to zero premium now.

sometimes happens, yeeeah i have both eyes on tvixie...hope she will skyrocket sooooon

Kato wrote:Kena - my VXV chart. Hard to be long here.

Screen shot 2012-03-27 at 3.21.33 PM.png

very nice chart--thank you

For vix analysis since 1990, see cobra- watering yesterday, last page.

Posted this chart the other day on XIV, hit my target of 300dma, said would get volatile here in the resistance zone....XIV tried to breakout, but failed...

Petsamo wrote:4.88 million last buy on SPY
814 K last buy on IWM

They're gonna gap this thing up

There was an individual on another forum who used to post those buy/sell numbers at the end of the day. At first, if against my position, I would wonder what I should do. Then I learned that there was no relevance whatsoever to the next day. Many things could be involved with wanting those shares at that exact moment at that price that didn't buy. If my math is right, $4.8 million divided by SPY's price of 141.06 = 36K shares. They could but those right now up to 141.07. If you meant that someone wanted to buy 4.88 million shares, I find that hard to be a genuine attempt. The record quote stuff I've seen, across all shares, is 42,000 in one second. So I suspect you meant $4.988 million.

If anyone sees that calculation being wrong please let me know.

Don't know about tomorrow, but yesterday's after-hours could have given us a hint for today...

Market now 100% correlated with the movement of Bernanke's jaw.

S&P 500 hourly chart

Edit: Updated from the previous post here: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=498&p=68644#p68644

I highly doubt we have topped today, check out this chart. When has the market topped shortly after making a new high and closed at the high of the day? I mean, it is usually with some kind of reversal or confirmation before we topped. You can find some closing comments and analysis at my blog as well.

I will be cautious today and not make any long positions as I see many risk assets, going against this overnight US futures recovery, AUDUSD trading opposite to EURSUD, Shangai index (that is $SSEC on stockcharts - it hasn't todays day though) flushed 2,7% down.