09/03/2013 Live Update

[RedKite]

Thanks. My misunderstanding.

On a different subject, whether we go up or down. On Friday NYA50R had a new low in this recent distribution phase. I can't find an example where it had a new low after the final bottom. In other words it's saying the final bottom of this phase is still ahead of us, not behind us.

[chickencoop]

Thanks. My misunderstanding.

On a different subject, whether we go up or down. On Friday NYA50R had a new low in this recent distribution phase. I can't find an example where it had a new low after the final bottom. In other words it's saying the final bottom of this phase is still ahead of us, not behind us.

June 24th was a new low but it bottomed on that day?

[Daniel-David]

XLB below its open, and testing LOD.

However, also holding its large opening gap well.

[L_T]

Wedge resolution = breakdown.

SPY 5 minute.

[L_T]

Bad news for mortgage rates?

IEF daily.

[Out of Bounds]

Cover short 164.76 - out for the day.

[Cobra]

not good, this pullback might have small legs at least, may see rebound here first though.

[Daniel-David]

SPY daily pivot S1, at 164.40 (per Schwab)

[TWT]

$SPX: The wedge option

[Cobra]

members only update at 11:40 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/09 ... ay-update/

[RedKite]

Thanks. My misunderstanding.

On a different subject, whether we go up or down. On Friday NYA50R had a new low in this recent distribution phase. I can't find an example where it had a new low after the final bottom. In other words it's saying the final bottom of this phase is still ahead of us, not behind us.

June 24th was a new low but it bottomed on that day?

Yes indeed. You could say last Friday was final bottom, the problem is that June 24 was a capitulation day, and last Friday wasn't. Usually the bottom is a capitulation day, though I have to say I don't have the rigorous stats for that assertion. I'm measuring capitulation using NYUD:NYUPV.

I too thought Friday was the final bottom until I saw the European volatility measures today, VDAX and VSTOXX, then I went back and looked at NYA50R on Friday, and the lack of capitulation, and now I'm very suspicious of this current recovery. I'm not saying 100% chance of a lower low around the corner, just there are too many unusual indicator values right now for Friday to look like a clean bottom. Another is SPX:VIX, which for many years has always shown a lower value at a true bottom. Last April it bottomed at 90, a record high value, and we weren't even that low on Friday. So it would be creating a new record.

I take your point though.

[fehro]

SPX 5m.. minor interday gap at 1646ish

[Daniel-David]

[quote="RedKite"]"Usually the bottom is a capitulation day, though I have to say I don't have the rigorous stats for that assertion."[quote="RedKite"]

Quite true, RedKite. With emphasis on the word USUALLY.

[jack black]

[
Yes indeed. You could say last Friday was final bottom, the problem is that June 24 was a capitulation day, and last Friday wasn't. Usually the bottom is a capitulation day, though I have to say I don't have the rigorous stats for that assertion. I'm measuring capitulation using NYUD:NYUPV.

I too thought Friday was the final bottom until I saw the European volatility measures today, VDAX and VSTOXX, then I went back and looked at NYA50R on Friday, and the lack of capitulation, and now I'm very suspicious of this current recovery. I'm not saying 100% chance of a lower low around the corner, just there are too many unusual indicator values right now for Friday to look like a clean bottom. Another is SPX:VIX, which for many years has always shown a lower value at a true bottom. Last April it bottomed at 90, a record high value, and we weren't even that low on Friday. So it would be creating a new record.

I take your point though.

I agree 100%. Looking at the volumes, friday was not capitulation nor the bottom. I bought XLF puts again this AM. So far so good.

[Daniel-David]

Distressing to equity bulls, intraday, to see sharp pullbacks to fresh lows in KRE (regional banks) and IYT (transports).

[smith]

[
Yes indeed. You could say last Friday was final bottom, the problem is that June 24 was a capitulation day, and last Friday wasn't. Usually the bottom is a capitulation day, though I have to say I don't have the rigorous stats for that assertion. I'm measuring capitulation using NYUD:NYUPV.

I too thought Friday was the final bottom until I saw the European volatility measures today, VDAX and VSTOXX, then I went back and looked at NYA50R on Friday, and the lack of capitulation, and now I'm very suspicious of this current recovery. I'm not saying 100% chance of a lower low around the corner, just there are too many unusual indicator values right now for Friday to look like a clean bottom. Another is SPX:VIX, which for many years has always shown a lower value at a true bottom. Last April it bottomed at 90, a record high value, and we weren't even that low on Friday. So it would be creating a new record.

I take your point though.

I agree 100%. Looking at the volumes, friday was not capitulation nor the bottom. I bought XLF puts again this AM. So far so good.

I agree also. I think 1600 spx is a given and then we will see......

[MrMiyagi]

Nice going Bonehead, a good green day in the markets.. You should have slept in or taken the day off.
I put probabilities at a US bombing raid at 91%.

[Cobra]

kind looks like descending triangle, so the bias is down.

[Mr. BachNut]

BachNut, you sure have guts to short here. On the very short term the SPX-W looks bullish, and the two SPX gaps higher up look bullish too. Of course, the internals are lousy, but I'd like to see a strong countermove/a few more days of upside before I consider the short side

Short. No change.

No guts here. This is existing position to participate in intermediate duration trend over weeks. Risk is defined. Setup is designed to handle most shorter term counter-moves or stop out if odds shift to favor change in trend.

I agree with your short term view.
Because I am too slow to flip smaller intra-trend moves long and short profitably (unlike others here ), I just try to get a chunk of the bigger pattern, not unlike Cobra's non-stop. Unfortunately, it means that positions get stressed with drawdowns along the way even if they ultimately work (and certainly if they don't).

[uempel]

BachNut, you'll like this

BachNut, you sure have guts to short here. On the very short term the SPX-W looks bullish, and the two SPX gaps higher up look bullish too. Of course, the internals are lousy, but I'd like to see a strong countermove/a few more days of upside before I consider the short side

Short. No change.

No guts here. This is existing position to participate in intermediate duration trend over weeks. Risk is defined. Setup is designed to handle most shorter term counter-moves or stop out if odds shift to favor change in trend.

I agree with your short term view.
Because I am too slow to flip smaller intra-trend moves long and short profitably (unlike others here ), I just try to get a chunk of the bigger pattern, not unlike Cobra's non-stop. Unfortunately, it means that positions get stressed with drawdowns along the way even if they ultimately work (and certainly if they don't).