09/09/2013 Live Update

[Mr. BachNut]

Net Short. Carrying longs and shorts.
Been short a trend signal for awhile.
Longed a summation index signal Friday.

Amen brother. I'm both long and short and waiting for clarity. The short that has been sweating is Crude and I might just take that risk off the table today depending on what I see. Perhaps downsize by 50%. I'm just nipping and collecting coins in front of the steam-roller when I can which is likely what everyone else is doing (thus the price action). GLTU. Trend signals are mixed (can't trust em though I lean more to bearish since trend signals always become mixed at a market turn). Momentum is up.

Feels flaky. Probably is flaky.
But I have to try and hold discipline to get the benefit of the stats.
Each trade is an independent batter at bat with a batting average. I don't know in advance who is going to strike out and who will get on base.

[gappy]

Capture.PNG

[Al_Dente]

Nyadv = >2100 bull
Up/dn volume ratio is 4 to 1 bull
But XIV and VIX are not quite on board yet
INTRADY ONLY
Double bottom target was already met (blue box)
We are at 50% retracement (drawn from the 2 aug hi) resistance

[rhight]

Net Short. Carrying longs and shorts.
Been short a trend signal for awhile.
Longed a summation index signal Friday.

My summation index signal is up.
My composite trend signal is down.
I have an ARMs sell warning in affect.

I have conflicting trade setups both with good win %s.
Not a good market for me to trade.
It is not possible for both to win. It is highly likely one will win. It is possible that both could lose.
I would step to the side but that loses the setups and puts one in chase mode when clarity comes.
I am leaning bearish, but my belief does not matter.
So, I'll be managing stops and trade size to try and limit damage. Hopefully, there is some kind of profit at the end.

Hello Mr Bachnut,

I appreciate your comments from yesterday, read this morning. So, here we are with a 5th day bullish TRIN (so far).
The currency crosses appear bullish, USD is falling out of bed, positive TICK and NYUD, what could go wrong? There is only one thing that bothers me, and that is an indicator I use, but have not seen others using, and so I don't know how much validity it has, except that I've kept track of it for 4 years, and it seems to form consistent patterns. And that is a MA of TICK, actually a couple on different time frames to see if they confirm. Those haven't really broken out to the upside, rather they've formed a triangle over the past 7 days centered around 0. At this point in a new bull trend, they are usually wildly bullish. I know TICK is considered a short term indicator, but what can I say, I see patterns (not dead people!) Anyways, this morning we are near the end of the triangle and it is time to see some wildly bullish +1000 TICK readings to break this out. Over the past 7 days we have had a sprinkling, but also a sprinkling of -1000 TICK readings in each of the past 7 days. This is unusual for a new up trend. This seems to confirm the triangle seen in price.
Any thoughts on TICK?

[L_T]

Net Short. Carrying longs and shorts.
Been short a trend signal for awhile.
Longed a summation index signal Friday.

Amen brother. I'm both long and short and waiting for clarity. The short that has been sweating is Crude and I might just take that risk off the table today depending on what I see. Perhaps downsize by 50%. I'm just nipping and collecting coins in front of the steam-roller when I can which is likely what everyone else is doing (thus the price action). GLTU. Trend signals are mixed (can't trust em though I lean more to bearish since trend signals always become mixed at a market turn). Momentum is up.

Feels flaky. Probably is flaky.
But I have to try and hold discipline to get the benefit of the stats.
Each trade is an independent batter at bat with a batting average. I don't know in advance who is going to strike out and who will get on base.

If anyone hasn't read "Thinking, Fast & Slow" it's worth a read as the author specifically talks about the importance of this idea in decision making based on probabilities. I would easily rank this as one of the best books in terms of amount and quality of information you can learn about how you think, are biased in many ways, and ultimately make decisions.

[rhight]

Nyadv = >2100 bull
Up/dn volume ratio is 4 to 1 bull
But XIV and VIX are not quite on board yet
INTRADY ONLY
Double bottom target was already met (blue box)
We are at 50% retracement (drawn from the 2 aug hi) resistance

99thirty_png.png

Hello Al_Dente,
I appreciate your comments from yesterday. My charts are for me, and I try to make them informative and save them weekly, so that when I look back a year or two from now, I don't have to repeat the analysis. The price/volume study I did for the board though, as it is not part of my usual suite. I do save the SPX volume chart every 6 months. Personally, I'm neutral, the overhead resistance from 1665 to 1670 looks quite dense (hey, we're there now!) If we breakout, the way the market has been futzing around, most likely price will retest the breakout, and I can buy a bounce off the new support. We'll see. Now, it looks like maybe we are about to drop.

[Tutti]

If anyone hasn't read "Thinking, Fast & Slow" it's worth a read as the author specifically talks about the importance of this idea in decision making based on probabilities. I would easily rank this as one of the best books in terms of amount and quality of information you can learn about how you think, are biased in many ways, and ultimately make decisions.

I'll second this.

[rhight]

SPX 5 D sma is about to bull cross 20 D sma. Could be significant. Adds support to 1655 area.

[Mr. BachNut]

Net Short. Carrying longs and shorts.

Hello Mr Bachnut,

I appreciate your comments from yesterday, read this morning. So, here we are with a 5th day bullish TRIN (so far).
The currency crosses appear bullish, USD is falling out of bed, positive TICK and NYUD, what could go wrong? There is only one thing that bothers me, and that is an indicator I use, but have not seen others using, and so I don't know how much validity it has, except that I've kept track of it for 4 years, and it seems to form consistent patterns. And that is a MA of TICK, actually a couple on different time frames to see if they confirm. Those haven't really broken out to the upside, rather they've formed a triangle over the past 7 days centered around 0. At this point in a new bull trend, they are usually wildly bullish. I know TICK is considered a short term indicator, but what can I say, I see patterns (not dead people!) Anyways, this morning we are near the end of the triangle and it is time to see some wildly bullish +1000 TICK readings to break this out. Over the past 7 days we have had a sprinkling, but also a sprinkling of -1000 TICK readings in each of the past 7 days. This is unusual for a new up trend. This seems to confirm the triangle seen in price.
Any thoughts on TICK?

I think Tick is important, but I am still studying how best to use it.
It has helped me intraday. When TICK and VIX turn and align, it seems to have some signaling value.
Seems like it could be relevant though on longer time frames.
I think Mr. Dente knows some things about TICK.

[Al_Dente]

.........Hello Al_Dente,
I appreciate your comments from yesterday. My charts are for me, and I try to make them informative and save them weekly, so that when I look back a year or two from now, I don't have to repeat the analysis. The price/volume study I did for the board though, as it is not part of my usual suite. I do save the SPX volume chart every 6 months. Personally, I'm neutral, the overhead resistance from 1665 to 1670 looks quite dense (hey, we're there now!) If we breakout, the way the market has been futzing around, most likely price will retest the breakout, and I can buy a bounce off the new support. We'll see. Now, it looks like maybe we are about to drop.

Yeah, I remember u from last year (best volume analysis on board)
Then u disappeared for months
Glad u r back
Here’s how I use tick, but this one (2 min) for intraday scalping only: straight tick with a 55ma envelope signal line (crossing above/below zero tick) works for me, but only in conjunction with AD and volume and volatility stats…

[Al_Dente]

Here’s cumulative tick (grey line behind price) on hourly internals
It looks nice and clean and workable, but it’s really a honey badger

[Al_Dente]

Edit: why is it a honey badger?
One example: on 3 Sept cum AD was making higher lows, while cum TICK made lower low
That is honey badger behaviour

[Cobra]

ascending triangle. tinted area the target.

[Al_Dente]

FOR RHIGHT ONLY
Weekend u mentioned that BPs can lag a few (4?) days, and by comparison the %-of-stocks-above-their-50-day-moving-average were starting up.
So I added the bottom panel (% above 50) for comparison
THANKS

[Cobra]

testing day high. key time. I'm neutral.

[Al_Dente]

This is formidable resistance:
167.15 is pivot point resistance.
167.30 was the 26 aug high. At/near 167.30 has to be called a double top until proven otherwise by squeezing above it…
50% retracement is here, now
Then the gap resistance (15 aug) kicks in at 167.40-ish

[Al_Dente]

HUGE squeeze XIV 5 min intraday

[Cobra]

resistance.

[BullBear52x]

Mid to Long term, Resistance will resist until it broken. Bear last stand, now that SPY got bullish cross on histogram I can not be overly bearish. last sell failed, now either chase the trend up or wait for the new set up.

[BullBear52x]

resistance.

great mind think alike. didn't see your post first.