Cobra's Market View

rhight wrote:

gappy wrote:

rhight wrote:Posted in the spirit of "you never know" how high it will go in a liquidity fueled bubble. POMO lives! Just keep looking over your shoulder.
Humble has me watching for any roll over in junk to reg bond. http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogsp ... report.com

hygagg.png

I keep a somewhat similar chart, 6 year, using JNK:TLT
No roll over yet, mainly due to the dive in TLT (interest rates up). When stress occurs, it is assumed that there will be a safe money flow into Treasuries, and a drop in junk bonds. Thanks for the link.

my messy 60m.. into the gap, plus a new gap... fill the gap? and neckline retest 1695 next?

Mr. BachNut wrote:Long. Trend short got stopped yesterday. Ouch.

My summation index signal is up.
My composite trend signal is down. It has improved dramatically though and could turn up today or tomorrow.
An Arms sell warning is in effect into next week.

The bulls won by knock-out.
The summation signal correctly called the turn here.
I am still cautionary.
It looks like the summation signal may read overbought after the close if we have a decent day today.
That combined with the ARMs sell warning would have me tightening stops on the longs.

FWIW I'm looking for the upper BB to act as resistance to "this" push up SPX (not very sophisticated but after a move down like this and upper BB pointing down to flat, it usually puts up some resistance. So I'm looking for a pullback to the 50DMA at the least, or possibly a resumption of the down trend. Still holding a market short position and long volatility (ugggh). Long IACI, CPN, CORN, END. May long long GLD very soon depending on how price handles itself here at the 200MA 4-hour.

SPX 60m another look

Approaching upper bb. may be a pause here first

http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analy ... ld-sh.aspx

stlwater wrote:

Mr. BachNut wrote:Long. Trend short got stopped yesterday. Ouch.

My summation index signal is up.
My composite trend signal is down. It has improved dramatically though and could turn up today or tomorrow.
An Arms sell warning is in effect into next week.

FWIW I'm looking for the upper BB to act as resistance to "this" push up SPX (not very sophisticated but after a move down like this and upper BB pointing down to flat, it usually puts up some resistance. So I'm looking for a pullback to the 50DMA at the least, or possibly a resumption of the down trend. Still holding a market short position and long volatility (ugggh). Long IACI, CPN, CORN, END. May long long GLD very soon depending on how price handles itself here at the 200MA 4-hour.

Don't disagree.
If I get the right overbought conditions, I have some setups to work that.
Also, my trend signal has not turned up at this point. The market could roll over, confirm the signal and trigger re-entry criteria for short.
Just going to honor my stops in the mean time.

Mr. BachNut wrote:Ouch.

I admire your discipline.

Cautionary note for bulls, just posted in reply on the Intraday members board.

GLTA

no guess work, sell first ask question later.

AAPL

gappy wrote:

Capture.PNG

http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analy ... ld-sh.aspx

Thanks Gappy, always appreciate the perspective.

Waiting for comments from the is what it is dept.

My VIX analysis says we could get a short bounce in VIX here. If we don't then its all bull for the next few days to a week.

stlwater wrote:

gappy wrote:

Capture.PNG

http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analy ... ld-sh.aspx

Thanks Gappy, always appreciate the perspective.

You are welcome. Perspecting is like prospecting.

HPQ, not picking on it just what it is.

"similar chart, 6 year, using JNK:TLT"

It's sometimes useful to maintain JNK:LQD as well. When the two ratios are aligned and correlating well, the signal message from them (risk vs. safety) seems more reliable.

Out of Bounds wrote:

smith wrote:attached is a chart of a potential complex H&S formation on the SPY daily chart ( http://thepatternsite.com/chst.html ).

SPY091013.png

I'm watching the same thing.

We should know soon with next weeks FOMC meeting (how much tapering?) and then 10yr, budget, and debt limit stuff adding gasoline to that fire.

or we breakout and we never go down again....

Where is Mr. KeiZai?
MLNX = Buy, not everything is for sell.

wayne0708 wrote:Approaching upper bb. may be a pause here first

makes sense up against possible trend line resistance..fwiw.

Did anyone get to read the following report?

http://blog.variantperception.com/2013/ ... gly-wager/

It was on zerohedge on Saturday, before they were forced to remove it for violating copyright. Always the bad boy! I was able to read it (the main reason I go to zerohedge is to look for pdf or scribd reports,) otherwise they never change their bearish slant. I wonder how they make any money. I'm a natural bear, and have to fight that tendency by adhering to my system. Anyways, this was a good report that attempts to model bubbles with a quant approach. If you didn't read it, to sum up the conclusion: The Russell 2000 and SPX fit the bubble model. The window for a "regime change" in the bubble is this month (wow, how definitive!) A change could manifest in 3 ways, a prolonged sideways chop, a crash, and uhh, I forget the third! Anyways, interesting stuff.

rhight wrote:Did anyone get to read the following report?

http://blog.variantperception.com/2013/ ... gly-wager/

It was on zerohedge on Saturday, before they were forced to remove it for violating copyright. Always the bad boy! I was able to read it (the main reason I go to zerohedge is to look for pdf or scribd reports,) otherwise they never change their bearish slant. I wonder how they make any money. I'm a natural bear, and have to fight that tendency by adhering to my system. Anyways, this was a good report that attempts to model bubbles with a quant approach. If you didn't read it, to sum up the conclusion: The Russell 2000 and SPX fit the bubble model. The window for a "regime change" in the bubble is this month (wow, how definitive!) A change could manifest in 3 ways, a prolonged sideways chop, a crash, and uhh, I forget the third! Anyways, interesting stuff.

Lots going on now. http://yragharris.com/2013/09/04/wasteland/#more-2195