Cobra's Market View

VIX 15m .. messy.. but invs H&S

去承担去!

possible double bottom, maybe the low was in for today. overall, I guess it's range day.

Neutral. No Position.
Longs were exited on the breakdown yesterday afternoon.

My summation signal is up.
My composite trend signal is up.

Seems like some kind of high was set yesterday.
Perhaps we get some corrective action to rectify overbought conditions and continue up.
Perhaps we get a trend change.

I'll probably do nothing for the rest of the week. No setups on deck at the moment.
The market will be navigating to an OPEX settlement level, and I haven't a clue what that will be.
I would also like my models to log in another close or two to let the changing trade pattern season.

My models look comfortably up for now. So, next position is probably long.
However, the cyclical component of my summation model could peak next week.
Also, there are still some soft spots in my trend model. So, a few bad days could turn it.
I need to see how things unfold from here for a little while before doing anything. Such is the turtle way...

Mr. BachNut wrote:Neutral. No Position.
Longs were exited on the breakdown yesterday afternoon.

My summation signal is up.
My composite trend signal is up.

Seems like some kind of high was set yesterday.
Perhaps we get some corrective action to rectify overbought conditions and continue up.
Perhaps we get a trend change.

I'll probably do nothing for the rest of the week. No setups on deck at the moment.
The market will be navigating to an OPEX settlement level, and I haven't a clue what that will be.
I would also like my models to log in another close or two to let the changing trade pattern season.

My models look comfortably up for now. So, next position is probably long.
However, the cyclical component of my summation model could peak next week.
Also, there are still some soft spots in my trend model. So, a few bad days could turn it.
I need to see how things unfold from here for a little while before doing anything. Such is the turtle way...

Turtle wins the race

Vaamsy wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:Bears want to see a lower low....would form another impulsive wave down for "a"....

That dip lower looked like it never happened. Can we call that a lower low?

That was definitely 5 waves down on SPY and FAS...the only thing is I am questioning the wave structure on the Dow...either that was 3 or 5 waves down...?? would have to see more price action to know....

“…SPY was ultimately rejected by the 184 strike, which is home to peak call open interest set to expire this Friday. Continue to watch this level -- as well as the round-number 180 level, where peak front-month put open interest is located, as it could act as a magnet on possible continued weakness.”
[Schaeffer’s]

From the P-Bar Archaeology Department:

A fossil was unearthed yesterday.
The last of Miyagi's P-Bars that were stranded in January was tagged.
Mission accomplished for the Bulls.
The fossilizing open bars are now to the downside.
Let's see what happens...

SPX 5m.. mind the interday gap..

i believe that 1834.75 area is a magnet for the algos! good trading all!

Mr. BachNut wrote:Neutral. No Position.

I'll probably do nothing for the rest of the week. No setups on deck at the moment.
The market will be navigating to an OPEX settlement level, and I haven't a clue what that will be.
I would also like my models to log in another close or two to let the changing trade pattern season.

I need to see how things unfold from here for a little while before doing anything. Such is the turtle way...

jessie livermore quotes ripped from the big picture

1. “Money is made by sitting, not trading.”
2. “It takes time to make money.”
3. “It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.”
4. “Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.”
5. “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.”
6. “Buy right, sit tight.”
7. “Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”
8. “Don’t give me timing, give me time.”
and finally, the most important thing:
9. “There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. Not many can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.”

(worth noting--waiting does not mean you are out of a trade)

ES Calls all green.

5 waves up for a, so pullback and more up??

Al_Dente wrote:“…SPY was ultimately rejected by the 184 strike, which is home to peak call open interest set to expire this Friday. Continue to watch this level -- as well as the round-number 180 level, where peak front-month put open interest is located, as it could act as a magnet on possible continued weakness.”
[Schaeffer’s]

Speaking of P-Bars... there were a bunch after hours yesterday above the 184 strike. SPY 184.28 was popular.
So, that 184 level may indeed be salient.

VIX 15m.. messy cyan, replaced by yellow cleaner invs H&S. fwiw.. holding above it's 50d SMA still

SPX 5m... possible bearish rising red wedge/bear flag... a tad early to call

Mr. BachNut wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:“…SPY was ultimately rejected by the 184 strike, which is home to peak call open interest set to expire this Friday. Continue to watch this level -- as well as the round-number 180 level, where peak front-month put open interest is located, as it could act as a magnet on possible continued weakness.” [Schaeffer’s]

Speaking of P-Bars... there were a bunch after hours yesterday above the 184 strike. SPY 184.28 was popular.
So, that 184 level may indeed be salient.

SPX 15m... channel retest?

Sometimes waves can morph into other wave counts...so this could be an abc up, with a possible fib time signal on the Dow around 8am PST...so keep an eye on a possible deeper pullback??

cleaner SPX 15m fwiw.