07/14/2014 Live Update

[Mr. BachNut]

This chart continues to interest me.
Given what has been going on in Japan, TPTB have had to have been heavily engaged to keep the yen pegged in this tight range.
Friday looked interesting as dollar yen closed at lows, but alas the weakness was fixed this morning.
Perhaps I am biased, but it sure looks like this wants to break down not up.
In any case, this flat range will not last forever...

[Al_Dente]

[Out of Bounds]

This day started off gangbusters but has turned into a snoozefest. I don't get it.

[MrMiyagi]

spyV

qqqX

[Al_Dente]

Rallies without a 10% correction, since 1950 [Source: Avondale Asset Management]
Although we are at extremes, this shows five other time periods that were even more extreme

[1der]

[quote="MrMiyagi"]

Really like the chart nomenclature you chose )

[Tutti]

Rallies without a 10% correction, since 1950 [Source: Avondale Asset Management]
Although we are at extremes, this shows five other time periods that were even more extreme

714rally wo 10_png.png

This is great Al, thanks -

Off the top of my head, most of these runs ended really badly.10/1997 had a small pullback and then it finally experienced a correction ~ a year later. 10/2007 - we all know how that ended, we finally had a 10% correction and then that was it - the top (I remember this day fondly getting crushed in CROX as it blew up a/h on an earnings miss) 8/1987 - we all know about that one - quick 35% to end the run in a jiffy.

End of the rainbow takes you to a garbage pile...

[MrMiyagi]

Really like the chart nomenclature you chose )

dirty apes...

[Al_Dente]

Rallies without a 10% correction, since 1950 [Source: Avondale Asset Management]
Although we are at extremes, this shows five other time periods that were even more extreme

This is great Al, thanks -
Off the top of my head, most of these runs ended really badly.10/1997 had a small pullback and then it finally experienced a correction ~ a year later. 10/2007 - we all know how that ended, we finally had a 10% correction and then that was it - the top (I remember this day fondly getting crushed in CROX as it blew up a/h on an earnings miss) 8/1987 - we all know about that one - quick 35% to end the run in a jiffy.
End of the rainbow takes you to a garbage pile...

I think this week and next week are all about earnings
the chatter seems to be that REVENUE beats are now MUCH more important than eps beats

Notable Earnings reports:
Today: C reported pre-market……. traders responded bullish

Tuesday before open: GS, JPM........ After the close: INTC, YHOO

Wednesday before open: BAC.......After the close: EBAY

Thursday before open: MS........After the close: GOOG, IBM

Friday before open: GE

And starting tomorrow, busy week for econ reports:

[Varaha]

Yep.

Full moon on Saturday.
So, tomorrow should mark "the bottom".

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1359&start=80

[Cobra]

vol surge, may see rebound here first then we'll see. I'm neutral.

[taggard]

I think this week and next week are all about earnings the chatter seems to be that REVENUE beats are now MUCH more important than eps beats

just an opinion but i agree with al--slight tweak. the last 2-3 days of last week were trading off earnings positions (tails on spx and up). the the week after this coming one is less about earnings (although still very much an issue) and more about what happens next. Often it's possible to just trade indexes as IBM and INTC go. People say these guys are not important--maybe not--but it's still possible to use peak earnings flow as peak clue.

the option situation on spy went from being put heavy (monday of last week) to sort of so-so (last friday). We got a little sell into earnings--that made it easier to get some up closer to earnings.

I just don't get the sense of buying as much as screwing around (er. . trading) and various leverage related moves. i think that is what keeps getting OOB that sort of "less strong sense of purpose" in the action. Fair warning i don't bother with internals so my tout is just a sense of what it "feels like".

finally it's worth noting that huge buybacks in stuff like IBM APPl and others have had a huge impact on the whole earnings thing. Companies are still working on being "efficient" so holding wages to the extent possible--cutting benefits and so on.

[BullBear52x]

Entering big daddy zone on mid to long term entry setup. watching RSI<70 same play book until it fails. on intraday buy coupon is still active.

[BullBear52x]

VIX ratio sell/buy on Mid BB. is still on the bear side.

[arne reabel]

thx guys for the info

[fehro]

Yep.

Full moon on Saturday.
So, tomorrow should mark "the bottom".

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1359&start=80

I was thinking more along the lines of a possible trend reversal.. near +/- 2days near new moons / full moons...

[FlowerGirl]

Ascending Triangle BO Candidate

Disclaimer: Long since 94.05

[BullBear52x]

DIA is 2x top on my book, negative histogram.

[BullBear52x]

Ascending Triangle BO Candidate

The attachment hon.png is no longer available

Disclaimer: Long since 94.05

Last sell failed, a breakout pattern is clear with good momentum, a little overbought though. buy next dip?

[FlowerGirl]

Ascending Triangle BO Candidate

hon.png

Disclaimer: Long since 94.05

Last sell failed, a breakout pattern is clear with good momentum, a little overbought though. buy next dip?

Thanks, I will hold with a breakeven stop loss.
ER on 7/18