07/17/2014 Live Update

[Cobra]

mini pullback target, must exceed it to make 2nd leg down possible.

[tsf]

I was puzzled by the block trade and pbar discussion yesterday.
Looks like the pbars reflect the block trade prices, right?
According to wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Block_trade
Institutions engaging in block trades may have informational advantage (=inside info) and thus those trades could be what we call "smart money."

Yea or nay?

The stuff that I came across refer to them as "informed traders" instead of "smart money".

Lots of stories about "smart money" making dumb mistakes, too, e.g. billionaires, market makers, whales,...
FlowerGirl is smarter than Da Boyz, and she has a cousin who can read the markets like tarot cards.

[Cobra]

exceeded the mini target, so perhaps there's another leg down.

[Cobra]

vol surge, may see rebound here firs then we'll see. suppose another leg down as mentioned before.

[gappy]

I was puzzled by the block trade and pbar discussion yesterday.
Looks like the pbars reflect the block trade prices, right?
According to wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Block_trade
Institutions engaging in block trades may have informational advantage (=inside info) and thus those trades could be what we call "smart money."

Yea or nay?

Might be smart money for an individual stock, say IBM, on insider frontrun. But SPY manipulation smells of a primary dealers pump following Fed mandate to insure the chart goes up (for national security of course). For a while there they pumped IWM good. So companies take the easy money from the price pumps and low interest borrowing leverage to eat their own shares to boost the earnings per share of a smaller float. Margin value, not top line growth. And they have done well by the ponzi.

Capture.PNG

But is that a failing cup and handle at that end of that run there?

[fehro]

SPX 15m ... watch blue.. break it .. could get ugly

[jack black]

To be honest, I expected bigger fireworks after the escalations in Ukrainian war and new and improved sanctions on russia. There was some reaction in rubel and russian markets. Looking back at the previous sanctions (march 6 and april 29 2014) the us stocks eased some a week later.
Full disclosure: short XLF (nothing yet) and IBB (this one works, I did a front run on Yelen).

[quientuves]

*INTERFAX SAYS PLANE MAY HAVE CRASHED NEAR RUSSIA-UKRAINE BORDER
*MALAYSIAN BOEING 777 MAY HAVE CRASHED IN UKRAINE: INTERFAX
*MALAYSIAN PASSENGER JET WAS SHOT DOWN AT 10 KM ALTITUDE: IFX

The crash happened near Donetsk and the plane had 280 passengers on board. The question is - accident? Or was it shot down by Russia or Ukraine as a provocation.

[fehro]

SPX 15m.. key time... lower gap filled.... VIX spiking sharply over 20d, 50d...

[Cobra]

vol surge, so might be a rebound here first then probably another leg down.

[jack black]

Flower girl,
your prediction of SPY at 197.2 was totally wrong, it came one hour too early!
I'm surprised you took the other side of the trade (long XIV).

[Al_Dente]

The inverse H&S couldn’t make a new high (blue)
So let’s see if the H&S (pink) can work on the downside target
Bears have a 2.4 to 1 volume ratio in their favor at the moment, but they must continue strong…..

[jack black]

*INTERFAX SAYS PLANE MAY HAVE CRASHED NEAR RUSSIA-UKRAINE BORDER
*MALAYSIAN BOEING 777 MAY HAVE CRASHED IN UKRAINE: INTERFAX
*MALAYSIAN PASSENGER JET WAS SHOT DOWN AT 10 KM ALTITUDE: IFX

The crash happened near Donetsk and the plane had 280 passengers on board. The question is - accident? Or was it shot down by Russia or Ukraine as a provocation.

I'm sure it's the Russian separatists. They are quite trigger happy to shoot down anything flying over them. I'm sure Russia will say Ukraine did it. Ultimately we will never know like we don't know who killed those poor 11 souls in the recent apartment airstrike.

Edit, it could also be also Russian fighter jets. They just shot down an Ukrainian Su25 this AM (according to official Ukrainian news, the pilot ejected and survived, so there is a witness, Russians deny it of course), may be they thought another one was coming? Russians/Soviets have a history of shooting down civilian airliners in the past.

[Mr. BachNut]

Short. Closed short yesterday for a few and reloaded today at a better price.
Missed the overnight downdraft.
Still keeping size limited and things on a tight leash.

My summation signal is down and persistently so.
My composite trend signal is up. It may be close enough to neutral where one very bad day could turn it.

It looks like the 197 and 198 strikes are the battleground for OPEX.
Hard to say where the market would be without OPEX.
The R2K looks like a good downtrend but the SPX isn't following yet.
I have been lightly working shorts given my summation signal.
It looks like either the signal bottoms soon (and off to index highs) or the index will reconcile to the signal.
My NYMO chart shows it pretty well. NYMO quite weak for awhile but SPX just shy of ATH.
NYMO is making a fresh lower low right now (no conclusions until the close).
Something should give pretty soon.
ES is looking a bit trianglely now. Perhaps resolving that will be a decider.

[fehro]

SPX 15m

[fehro]

INDEX .. SPX testing 20d

[gappy]

Capture.PNG

Zoomed in to 5 minute.

Capture.PNG

[taggard]

It looks like the 197 and 198 strikes are the battleground for OPEX. Hard to say where the market would be without OPEX.

agree. . . but 2 points earnings tonite are important in the sense they can drive prices short term. further on any sell 196 spy has a decent cluster of open int. Further in general--if you look at the so far 4 overlapping daily price bars this week (so key earnings week) to me that doesn't look like buying it looks like minor "lightening up". just an opinion as always--but i think they bot it (spy/spx) thur and fri last week "on earnings coming" and this week have just more or less slightly sold into the highs. i have no idea if earnings are good or bad (i just watch intc and ibm a bit as they are old trading tools) but this is not what i would call a strong positive reaction to earnings. if that is so--that may mean we are looking past earnings--eg placing earnings in a larger context.

[Varaha]

This made me laugh more than once so I had to share. Makes you think about the appropriateness of a Fed chairperson commenting about equity valuations.

http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/files/2014/07/yellen.png

Did she really Tweet that ?

[fehro]

SPX 60m.. mind lower trends for support.. should 20d SMA go