12/09/2014 Live Update

[Cobra]

2nd test of day low, key time. vol surge, may see rebound first then we'll see

[tsf]

Thank you, Mr. BachNut.
I wish you'd post more often.

BachNut checking in...

Nothing has really changed on my NYMO cycle chart.
A down cycle has been in effect since the end of October.
The minimum price target for the down cycle has been SPX 2018.19.
That target was looking absurd last Friday but is showing some promise this morning.
The divergence to the benchmark reached about 60 handles on Friday, which is a lot of potential juice for a trade. Good asymmetry.
NYMO is approaching the potential bottoming zone (thin green), but if you look carefully, you can see a fair bit of room to the oversold zone (thick green).
I have been working TF and ES.

The other chart that I have been paying attention to (GBP/Yen cross) has shown some change, which may be significant.
First, in recent days while the cross popped pretty good, the SPX really struggled to make new highs. This was a change in tone from recent weeks.
Second, last night the cross made a lower low.
There are some support zones marked on the chart. Assuming the cross goes to one of them and finds support, I'll be looking to see if equity behavior conforms.
This chart has been correlating tops and bottoms pretty well.

Given seasonality and well ingrained BTD behavior and hyperactive central bankers, it is reasonable to expect that this decline won't go too far.
That said futures contracts will be rolling ahead of expiration this week, and a chunk of Decembers may elect to call it a year and just liquidate.
Also, there is a tipping point (who knows where) that could tip folks to protect year-end profits. The bus is pretty full long. I am guessing the market would need some event to trigger such a tip though.
As usual, I have no idea what will happen. I am planning on Santa, but I have heard about this fella called the Grinch...

NYMO 120914.jpg

ES Yen 120914.jpg

[Mr. BachNut]

One more thing.

While I marked the NYMO benchmark target of 2018.19 with a red circle, I also marked a lower target possibility.
There is a gap at SPX 1999.40 that didn't quite get closed, and the 50 day MA is reaching that neighborhood.
Things have been so bullish, it is hard to imagine going there, but I'll keep an open mind.
Much easier to imagine a V shaped low and surge to all time highs...

These are possibilities not predictions.

[cletus]

VXN is now about 9 vols from the 9.66 p-bar. This is one of the biggest gaps up in VXN in recent years.

[fehro]

SPX possible support.. 2030 next lower level

[K447]

Thank you, Mr. BachNut.
I wish you'd post more often.

BachNut checking in...

...

+1

[Mr. BachNut]

Thank you, Mr. BachNut.
I wish you'd post more often.

BachNut checking in...

Thank you!

Been busy and nothing really had changed since last post.
I have been figuring that as long as the yen kept getting gassed, the NYMO/Index divergence could just keep getting wider.
The question has been whether the currency flows would simply overwhelm the breadth deterioration.
The break last night suggests perhaps not.
Keep an eye on the yen though (and other currencies too). It seems to matter.
Things can change on a dime. It's still a bull market.

I am honoring the entries and exits of my setups and letting the chips fall.
It is the only way I can act on what I can't believe.

[cletus]

NATV:NYTV is issuing a very rare ultra-bullish signal in the nasdaq. Will this be the one time it fails?

[fehro]

SPX 5m.. trying to put in a minor invs H&S… which could evolve into a lunchtime drift up/bear flag…

[cletus]

New session highs on the QQQ, bears just got blown out on that candle

[icman]

Back to the pool?

[Cobra]

100% mm.

[Al_Dente]

Fact:
AAPL still has funds available in their stock-buyback program
Opinion:
This would be a good time for them to buy the dip and support the stock
If they do not………it suggests that they believe they will be able to dip-buy at a lower price.
(Daily; ignore vertical lines)

[fehro]

INDEX dailies… RUT green… gap fill... NDX/COMPQ trying to test 20d SMAs

[K447]

Fact:
AAPL still has funds available in their stock-buyback program
Opinion:
This would be a good time for them to buy the dip and support the stock
If they do not………it suggests that they believe they will be able to dip-buy at a lower price.
...

Is Apple even allowed to 'time' their stock buyback increments? Other than in very broad time bands.

Especially if it might influence the trading action?

[Denali92]

The targets would work well with an oversold low before opex... which generally occurs on the Thurs / Fri before opex

I like the work!

THANKS!

-D

One more thing.

While I marked the NYMO benchmark target of 2018.19 with a red circle, I also marked a lower target possibility.
There is a gap at SPX 1999.40 that didn't quite get closed, and the 50 day MA is reaching that neighborhood.
Things have been so bullish, it is hard to imagine going there, but I'll keep an open mind.
Much easier to imagine a V shaped low and surge to all time highs...

These are possibilities not predictions.

[Al_Dente]

...Is Apple even allowed to 'time' their stock buyback increments? Other than in very broad time bands.
Especially if it might influence the trading action?

AAPL can buy shares whenever they want.
“Apple has the largest share repurchase program in history… Since 2012, Apple has spent $68 billion on buyback repurchasing approximately 10% of common shares outstanding, with approximately $22 billion remaining in the current authorization."

This is from last week:
http://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2014/1 ... -80billion

[Cobra]

my guess. overall, it's range day.

[Cobra]

members only update at 11:54 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/12 ... ay-update/

[DellGriffith]

The way I would read the daily action is that today is a clear break of the current uptrend line. We must move back above the uptrend line by the close tomorrow. If not, the odds are extremely good that this is the start of a correction.

There's plenty of examples of one-day fakeouts where the uptrend line is violated, but the next day is a huge white candle and the uptrend continues. A two-day fakeout is much, much more rare. Can't even recall the last time I saw a two-day fakeout.