01/02/2015 Live Update

[fehro]

SPX not looking good.. atm 20d @ 2052ish

[johnnywa]

By by bull something rotten in Denmark

[KENA]

chart by stocktiming

The options liquidity looks like it is turning dn again indicating this mkt dn move is not finished. But lets see.

[Out of Bounds]

Closed short

[Mr. BachNut]

Happy New Year everybody.

NYMO took a trip to the zero line to close the year.
If it makes a lower high and lower low, I'll mark a high for the recent up cycle.

Some days a go I put up a possible thesis that we might see things get wedgie this month.
The recent action makes that thesis a little more possible me thinks.

That said the market has not yet declared its next move IMO.
I have plausible targets above and below.

For the bulls, the NYMO move to zero is a natural corrective action.
So, once finished, the bull trend could resume.

For the bears, there is a big unclosed gap below that might need to get closed.
While the gap seems a ways down, the recent bull move has had an undermining fly in the ointment.
Cumulative tick has not been in tune with the recent highs.
Tick may have been a function of light holiday trade, or the price move may have been too far too fast and may need to retrace back to some solid support.
The bulls need to get the tick going these opening days of the year.
The VIX close on Wednesday was also striking. A troubling way to finish.

I am flat equities. By the time my long setups activated in the recent rally, price had blown way past my entry levels.
Some times the rabbits and snakes leave the turtle spectating.
I did not chase but took a vacation instead.
At the moment I have no idea when or what I'll do here next.
I plan to do nothing today except see how the day closes.

[Cobra]

vol surge, might see rebound here first which likely would be sold later.

[FlowerGirl]

Long UVXY...

[fehro]

INDEXes .. TLT new highs, GLD trying to reverse.. NDX tags 50d, RUT short of 20d, SPX 20d tag

[fehro]

SPX hourly candle, bottom right not looking good.. 7m to go.. possible wider red channel 15m , yellow triangle speculation toast.

[KENA]

The NYA has not made the triple top as yet. Now lets see how low it will now get.

chart by stocktiming

[brucekeller]

Jeez Russell is starting to look like a mini crash.

[FlowerGirl]

Long UVXY...

Aborted...

[KENA]

Still holding TZA. Got trapped on that pop up move so just held. Doubled dn a few days ago so now lets see.

[Cobra]

100% mm, not sure.

[fehro]

Jeez Russell is starting to look like a mini crash.

not yet.. testing recent highs.. and holding so far… but 20d tag by everyone else.. RUT may go to lower support/20d

[chetas]

By by bull something rotten in Denmark

what news from denmak, something bad?

[Heck]

Very rare +145% INDEX opening long undervalued calls/puts = BUY DIPS

https://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

60% ALL and 48% EQUITY overvalued opening long calls/puts confirm BUY

[fehro]

VIX daily.. mind the green channel .. should things really fall apart.. doubtful..

[cletus]

Sold my PSX calls for the time being. I don't like the looks of what is happening in oil lately. I'm going to step aside that long trade for a few weeks. I got the move from $66 to $72 that wasn't too bad. I think there's more coming but this tape looks wretched.

[fehro]

XIV daily for FlowerGirl.. touch and go at this point.. could hold, could fail miserably… hence the sharp up channel in the VIX