03/06/2015 Live Update

[fehro]

INDEXes… 20d s breaking..

[Cobra]

vol surge, feb 20 low (cannot see from this chart, you need daily chart), so might be a rebound here first which likely would be sold.

[Royal Flush]

Yesterday's ISEE equity call to put at 58 was the second lowest reading in history. The only other case that low was August 1, 2014 when the equity reading was 45. Here is how the market traded afterwards. A few days more of weakness followed by a vertical rally!

Yes, but on August 1, 2014 the indices & ETFs reading was 40 a slightly low reading to the norm of 55. Yesterday's reading was 20 which is a very bearish reading as those traders are frequently on the right side of the trade. When examining ISEE data one must look at both as they are both significant.

Overvalued/undervalued option premium volatilities are relative to $VIX.
Big smart money buys undervalued options and sells (writes) overvalued options.
For overvalued call/put percentages, often ALL and EQUITY, below 100% suggests smart money are put sellers, a bullish indicator. For undervalued call/put percentages like INDEX, above 80% suggest smart money are call buyers.

[finman66]

FWIW category .......... unfulfilled February 12th SPY p-bars at $207.91 and $206.97

[fehro]

nearing support.. 60m .. bottom left.. for a lunch time bounce?.. possible neckline restest?… or break.. then we waterfall…

[Daniel]

vol surge, feb 20 low (cannot see from this chart, you need daily chart)

SPY 2/20 low was 208.73, current is 208.75-- after a brief overshoot lower.

update-- dropped thru this potential support to (at the least) clear out all the obvious stops just below the level...

[Unique]

Oops I posted in yesterday's thread
---

Last update for the week, peace out

Crude Oil /CL: Short term bulls extremely weak, unable to have follow through/continuation after the 52 breakout. Retraced beyond 50% and 78.6% fib of the initial breakout. Price action still confirms range bound/tight channel movement.

Read the charts:

[fehro]

be very careful.. VIX could explode up here.. 60m

[fehro]

INDEX days.. 50d closing in… NDX lags.. not at 20d yet..

[Cobra]

members only update at 11:50 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/03 ... ay-update/

[uempel]

This system suggests that the SPX 2060 area is first good support.

[Cobra]

rarely this strong bull bar means the low was in, be careful bottom fish.

[JFR]

DOW ...

Dividends taking a beating from price drops ex div date.

[fehro]

SPX.. possible minor support top left 15m.. but may stall at mid channel red 60m.. hourly candle ugly

[JFR]

Ouch ...

[Al_Dente]

This is ALL juiced SHORTS %
Usually SPY lags behind whichever leader is pushing the market down
The fact that SPXU is on top (SPY leads down) indicates that this is a broad-market decline
So do these intraday stats:
NYSE declining stocks = 5.7x advancing stocks
NYSE declining volume = 3.5x advancing volume
I have no way of knowing whether this current little SPY bounce will fail (it “should” fail) or if it will turn into a short squeeze where the bears, giddy with profits, will cover like honey badgers

[brucekeller]

I'm buying at the end of the day, so I hope it goes really low, like closing 2% down but still above good supports, should make for an explosive ECB Monday.

[MrMiyagi]

spy

[uempel]

This is ALL juiced SHORTS %
Usually SPY lags behind whichever leader is pushing the market down
The fact that SPXU is on top (SPY leads down) indicates that this is a broad-market decline
So do these intraday stats:
NYSE declining stocks = 5.7x advancing stocks
NYSE declining volume = 3.5x advancing volume
I have no way of knowing whether this bounce will fail (it “should” fail) or if it will turn into a short squeeze where the bears, giddy with profits, will cover like honey badgers

36shorts_png.png

The bears giddy with profits? What about the bulls? They are dazed by profits

[gappy]

Fib arc looking for 2 Feb gap fill.

aa.PNG

This is interesting.

Capture.PNG

Vote Cobra. glta