06/04/2015 Live Update

[brokebybernacke2]

Goldman Sachs sent a note to clients in April that said the U.S. stock market is the most overvalued in 40 years, excluding the tech bubble. what do they know?

[QED]

Is there any benefit to buy Gold or Silver in any other currency than USD? Considering exchange rate to USD..you either gain very small profit or you loose money, in case your local currency appreciate more than USD.

Gold vs. Euro
http://snipurl.com/29zm5pn

Gold vs. Dollar
http://snipurl.com/29zm5ri

[uempel]

As we all know: Cobra cruises the oceans of the world with his smart sailing boat, posts all his messages via satellite. Some drone recently shot this picture of him and his team sailing the Caribbean. Note that he is flying the Greek flag, this might suggest that Cobra is bearish. Or is he bullish, is he suggesting that the Greek flag will not be hauled down these next days? Difficult to read his subtle communication

[Unique]

USOIL.. trying to find support near here.. but looks possible still a tad lower.. mind the pink neckline tho on the daily .. break +50d = more downside to come

For you fehro,

CL Update:

/CL Extreme Oversold Signal hourly, wait for a 15m reversal bar for price confirmation.
Deadcat bounce incoming potential, high prob.
Decent R/R for a quick and easy deadcat bounce trade.

Peace

[fehro]

USOIL.. trying to find support near here.. but looks possible still a tad lower.. mind the pink neckline tho on the daily .. break +50d = more downside to come

For you fehro,

CL Update:

/CL Extreme Oversold Signal hourly, wait for a 15m reversal bar for price confirmation.
Deadcat bounce incoming potential, high prob.
Decent R/R for a quick and easy deadcat bounce trade.

Peace

your welcome.. just not so sure of a bounce yet. we are screaming towards that 50d (56.61) ..57.70-57.50 "should" bounce

[Unique]

USOIL.. trying to find support near here.. but looks possible still a tad lower.. mind the pink neckline tho on the daily .. break +50d = more downside to come

For you fehro,

CL Update:

/CL Extreme Oversold Signal hourly, wait for a 15m reversal bar for price confirmation.
Deadcat bounce incoming potential, high prob.
Decent R/R for a quick and easy deadcat bounce trade.

Peace

your welcome.. just not so sure of a bounce yet. we are screaming towards that 50d (56.61) ..57.70-57.50 "should" bounce

I play deadcat bounces for leg 1 only usually, I don't go for leg 2 because probability of success for leg2 is much lower statistically on average.
Deadcat bounce is exactly what it means, just a quick bounce trade given a 5m/15m price conformation candle

[Cobra]

previous day low, vol surge, so might be a rebound here first then we'll see.

[quientuves]

Mmm... sorry, Cletus... what were you saying? Something bout bears I think.

I think this morning bulls have taken the rest of paper available. And now... we'll... I guess you're going to take a long time to return here to mock bears.

Take it easy!

[fehro]

SPY 15m.. 210.30 key .. take it out.. "could" get ugly very fast..

[brokebybernacke2]

QQQ is in the green

bears didn't know

bears didn't understand

oh my friend.. bonds dont agree bolly bottom

[Cobra]

As we all know: Cobra cruises the oceans of the world with his smart sailing boat, posts all his messages via satellite. Some drone recently shot this picture of him and his team sailing the Caribbean. Note that he is flying the Greek flag, this might suggest that Cobra is bearish. Or is he bullish, is he suggesting that the Greek flag will not be hauled down these next days? Difficult to read his subtle communication

The attachment h.png is no longer available

[uempel]

Yesterday's chart, SPX failed to break higher at blue resistance.

But I guess it's not the technicals which drive the market today and tomorrow. Greece will have to pay back loans on Friday and I guess that's the key element for this week's trading - not only in Europe, all around the world.

A failure to pay back the 300 million € to the IMF might unleash an uncontrolled chain reaction - and that's what scares everybody. It's not failure to pay a relatively small amount (of 300 million), the problem is that a non-payment would send a very negative signal to all the banks and institutions holding 318 billion € Greek debt.

As far as I recall the problems of Long Term Capital Management in 1998 were only 5 billion - and the markets corrected 22 percent. Of course there was a Russian financial crisis simultaneously, but the total $$$ amount which led to the huge 1998 correction was much, much smaller than 318 billion...

[Cobra]

Yesterday's chart, SPX failed to break higher at blue resistance.

But I guess it's not the technicals which drive the market today and tomorrow. Greece will have to pay back loans on Friday and I guess that's the key element for this week's trading - not only in Europe, all around the world.

A failure to pay back the 300 million € to the IMF might unleash an uncontrolled chain reaction - and that's what scares everybody. It's not failure to pay a relatively small amount (of 300 million), the problem is that a non-payment would send a very negative signal to all the banks and institutions holding 318 billion € Greek debt.

As far as I recall the problems of Long Term Capital Management in 1998 were only 5 billion - and the markets corrected 22 percent. Of course there was a Russian financial crisis simultaneously, but the total $$$ amount which led to the huge 1998 correction was much, much smaller than 318 billion...

o.png

if i understood correctly, it'd take months, say, 6 months before officially declare Greece is default even Greece cannot pay the coming 300 m in time, so still lots of times.

[fehro]

I play deadcat bounces for leg 1 only usually, I don't go for leg 2 because probability of success for leg2 is much lower statistically on average.
Deadcat bounce is exactly what it means, just a quick bounce trade given a 5m/15m price conformation candle

yeah that's what I thought.. short term... the downside seems strong.. may push it as far as they can till the pits close.. then bounce it

[Out of Bounds]

I have a new indicator. I watch the board and when the permabulls start posting, I short.

[uempel]

Yesterday's chart, SPX failed to break higher at blue resistance.

But I guess it's not the technicals which drive the market today and tomorrow. Greece will have to pay back loans on Friday and I guess that's the key element for this week's trading - not only in Europe, all around the world.

A failure to pay back the 300 million € to the IMF might unleash an uncontrolled chain reaction - and that's what scares everybody. It's not failure to pay a relatively small amount (of 300 million), the problem is that a non-payment would send a very negative signal to all the banks and institutions holding 318 billion € Greek debt.

As far as I recall the problems of Long Term Capital Management in 1998 were only 5 billion - and the markets corrected 22 percent. Of course there was a Russian financial crisis simultaneously, but the total $$$ amount which led to the huge 1998 correction was much, much smaller than 318 billion...

The attachment o.png is no longer available

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_ ... Management

Here some more information about LTCM - for those who were being breastfed in 1998

SPX corrected 22 percent August to October 1998. I'm not scaremongering here - this is just information about the irrationality of the market. By the way, the huge dip in 1998 lasted only a few months. End of the 1998 resp in 1999 SPX was higher than before the correction.

[fehro]

if i understood correctly, it'd take months, say, 6 months before officially declare Greece is default even Greece cannot pay the coming 300 m in time, so still lots of times.

The only issue.. is who holding and the amount of "insurance"? = credit default swaps. The sharks will be circling.. if there's any whiff of overexposure.. which could cause a liquidation of assets, a small snowball that starts to roll down the hill only to take out the whole village

[uempel]

Yesterday's chart, SPX failed to break higher at blue resistance.

But I guess it's not the technicals which drive the market today and tomorrow. Greece will have to pay back loans on Friday and I guess that's the key element for this week's trading - not only in Europe, all around the world.

A failure to pay back the 300 million € to the IMF might unleash an uncontrolled chain reaction - and that's what scares everybody. It's not failure to pay a relatively small amount (of 300 million), the problem is that a non-payment would send a very negative signal to all the banks and institutions holding 318 billion € Greek debt.

As far as I recall the problems of Long Term Capital Management in 1998 were only 5 billion - and the markets corrected 22 percent. Of course there was a Russian financial crisis simultaneously, but the total $$$ amount which led to the huge 1998 correction was much, much smaller than 318 billion...

o.png

if i understood correctly, it'd take months, say, 6 months before officially declare Greece is default even Greece cannot pay the coming 300 m in time, so still lots of times.

Back in 1998 it was pure hysteria. Don't see why this could not repeat ... Let's hope the Greeks pay the € 300 million tomorrow

[Cobra]

vol surge again, possible double bottom here.

[fehro]

SPX.. possible bullish falling wedge.. but that gap and 50d is just too close.. /es struggling to hold the pivots.. red line