08/28/2015 Live Update

[Cobra]

bias still up

[noob]

Higher high is fulfilled though right?

[fehro]

SPX horizontal resistance.. Jan 2015 lows..fwiw... break pink channel right chart... look for a possible sharp drop

[Al_Dente]

Short term RELATIVE STRENGTH
Are the green sectors QQQ and discretionary enough to keep propelling spy higher?
Well, yes, but they really do need more help.
It’s unusual for health to be so seismic. It usually decides on a direction and pushes it; currently it is pushing down which is unfortunate.
The defensive sectors (bottom panels) are no longer green, as should be expected in a bull leg.

[Cobra]

breakout as expected. here's ascending triangle target. not idea if the breakout is for real though.

[Al_Dente]

Advancing stocks are 1.7 x declining stocks (NYADV/NYDEC)
Advancing volume is 2.3 x declining volume (NYUPV/NYDNV)
Bull bias a bit weak but slowly getting stronger
This breakout should trigger stops and bears should run for cover
And if not, then WHY NOT?

[fehro]

SPX .. dabble small short here.

[q2model]

breakout as expected. here's ascending triangle target. not idea if the breakout is for real though.

Failed, opposite direction?

[fehro]

SPY 5m.. take out red .. then some more downside is possible

[tsf]

Thank you very much, Dr Al. It's very kind of you.

Newbie question
I'm trying to learn more about volatility contango and backwardation.
What are the signals that contango and backwardation have started and ended ?
Thank you in advance.

VIX futures are still in backwardation
Backwardation = when the front month VIX-futures contract is higher (more expensive) than the second month contract. Backwardation is rare, and it favors VXX, UVXY and other long VIX vehicles.
Contango = when the front month VIX-futures contract is lower (cheaper than) than the second month contract. Contango favors XIV and other short VIX vehicles. Estimates are that contango exists about 70-80% of the time in a primary bull market.
Only the closing price counts, as it is at the close that a small portion of the front month contracts are “rolled” (sold) and the second month contracts are bought. This roll ensures that at expiration, the VIX contracts will hold zero contracts expiring, as all will have been rolled into the next month already, creating a smooth-ish transition.
http://www.barchart.com/commodityfuture ... de=D&view=

828backward.png.png

[fehro]

SPY .. holding first test

[MrMiyagi]

I don't expect that most of these large-swing targets will get hit.

qqq

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:20 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/08 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

SPX.. . another like the other.. . possible H&S SPX 5m. again... 60m.. inverted hammer/gravestone last hour... H&S = doji SPX weekly.. could be an exciting closing hour

[fehro]

/CL USOIL.. resistance here..

[Al_Dente]

Thank you very much, Dr Al. It's very kind of you.

Vance = highly respected VIX guy
Search around for his “roll algorithm” post
http://sixfigureinvesting.com/blog/

[fehro]

SPY minor breech?.. VIX creeping up.. oil profit taking= SPX pullback?

[fehro]

SPX ,, RS in.. or still need another... target 1965= doji weekly SPX candle.. fwiw.

[Jennyahwu]

I don't expect that most of these large-swing targets will get hit.

1569.png

Hi MrMiyagi, I remember there was the other p-bar like qqq 98, and spy 211 and 194.48 showing for yesterday's intraday

[MrMiyagi]

Hi MrMiyagi, I remember there was the other p-bar like qqq 98, and spy 211 and 194.48 showing for yesterday's intraday

They are still there, low QQQ is $89.32, low SPY is $184.00.