10/09/2015 Live Update

[fehro]

possible minor H&S SPX 5m lower high holds.. neckline goes..target 2000-ish

[Ed02]

Cobra, is the first hourly bar a black bar, which implies any huge gain afterwards (if any) will be erased later?

[QED]

When the MSM gets their big boy giddy pants on, I always start getting defensive. They always like to suck the sheeple in just before the correction starts … however, at the moment, I am just waiting for my Cletus indicator!

Also, ANALyst do make the worst traders!

[Tutti]

ISE Index/ETF calls over five times puts reminiscent of March 2009 market bottom

https://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

Zweig Indicator = >8% <20 days

http://www.businessinsider.com/zweig-br ... -8-2015-10

Zweig signal has me thinking about 2 things: 1) I wonder how algos & etf's influence that signal. With everything moving (shorter term) with a correlation of ~1 does it skew that signal? 2) with so much noise around that signal this morning is it a trap? Kind of like the larger H&S that failed to trigger in 2010 as it had so many eyes on it?

[uempel]

Chart for Warren Buffet And pls note that WMA 75 is at SPX 2023/24

[Unique]

Nasdaq leading S&P...this is great

[Al_Dente]

Island update”
Now that spy is so far above that pink island gap, it’s too far away to use as a stop
The new stop will vary depending on your timeframe: tight for intraday, looser for short term.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywJ1MD4-Cns

[Junior Buffett]

Chart for Warren Buffet And pls note that WMA 75 is at SPX 2023/24

wb.png

Thank you Uempel! Looks like they are heading to test that level as we speak...

[Al_Dente]

Zweig signal has me thinking about 2 things: 1) I wonder how algos & etf's influence that signal. With everything moving (shorter term) with a correlation of ~1 does it skew that signal? 2) with so much noise around that signal this morning is it a trap? Kind of like the larger H&S that failed to trigger in 2010 as it had so many eyes on it?

That is a good point Toot.
But I’m seeing other evidence of long-term bull action. Here’s another … weekly:
Wednesday night’s NAAIM shows that money managers are starting to re-enter the market.
I’m calling this a bottom, knowing that as usual, a bounce lower is always a possibility.

Another LT bull:
My inverted, smoothed CPCE has called many bottoms in the past 9 years
It should work again here. It’s WEEKLY so it takes a while to work out. I’ve been watching it for weeks, and this week it finally ticked up bull.

[uempel]

Update:

[fehro]

INDEX days.. TLT holds 20d, creeps over 50d green.. COMPQ into 50d.. GLD strong /GC > 20w/20d/50d nearing 200d 1176ish.. $20 higher from HOD

[uempel]

Update:

mk.png

Time signal at 1:00 p.m. - not at noon.

[Tutti]

Zweig signal has me thinking about 2 things: 1) I wonder how algos & etf's influence that signal. With everything moving (shorter term) with a correlation of ~1 does it skew that signal? 2) with so much noise around that signal this morning is it a trap? Kind of like the larger H&S that failed to trigger in 2010 as it had so many eyes on it?

That is a good point Toot.
But I’m seeing other evidence of long-term bull action. Here’s another … weekly:
Wednesday night’s NAAIM shows that money managers are starting to re-enter the market.
I’m calling this a bottom, knowing that as usual, a bounce lower is always a possibility.

108naaim.png.png

Another LT bull:
My inverted, smoothed CPCE has called many bottoms in the past 9 years
It should work again here. It’s WEEKLY so it takes a while to work out. I’ve been watching it for weeks, and this week it finally ticked up bull.

109cpce.png.png

Not arguing, just trying to look at it from all angles.

Very hard to argue with the price action suggesting a return to the bull. That said I like to try to remain even keel and argue from the opposite mental position of my P&L, which right now is 65% long. I guess I look at the market like a really really good poker player, constantly bluffing with weak hands and soft playing me when the big boys have their best cards.

[Al_Dente]

Not arguing, just trying to look at it from all angles.
Very hard to argue with the price action suggesting a return to the bull. That said I like to try to remain even keel and argue from the opposite mental position of my P&L, which right now is 65% long. I guess I look at the market like a really really good poker player, constantly bluffing with weak hands and soft playing me when the big boys have their best cards.

Agree
Now back to intraday and short term, which is a bit overbought (so what!!). MAYBE we need to test and re-test that double top

[fehro]

SPX green VIX green

[Al_Dente]

some juiced ETFs %
week-to-date, so far

[Cobra]

range day so far, nothing to say.

[Al_Dente]

Hi 201.90
First re-test 201.89
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mV1LzXf1TKQ

[Trades with cats]

Well the small caps are certainly taking the escalator up and the elevator down today.

[fehro]

SPX teetering… oh and SPX green VIX green