Cobra's Market View

nikman wrote:Hi Fehro,
I would like to understand these charts and also would like to form the correct interpretations of the values they represent (meaning what does "rolling over to the sell side" mean here -- i.e., is it on an extreme end and so the rollover is imminent or it could be "few days" or "few weeks" (again the two may make a huge difference in one's decisions) away from rolling over. Could you provide some insight into all of this for someone who is new to it?

Thanks!

fehro wrote:T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm Rolling over again to the sell side.

Hey Nikman, as you probably know, no indicator gives a prefect signal, usually they lag, and they work in relation to different time frames.. some work better for near term.. next week, then others for weeks. As you can see some are better for near term turns, then the slower indicators catch-up.. if that makes sense. Also some show divergence, when the index and indicator diverge from either higher highs, or lower lows.. a trend change could be near swing wise, weeks/months again, depending on the "speed" of the indicator. Check each indicator, and re-read the definitions, I'm far from an expert on these but something to check to make sure you are on the "right side". Hope that helps.

nikman wrote:Hi BB52x,

Not trying to be a bold contrarian, so won't be placing a buy yet... but with things so unilaterally slanted towards the negative/bearish side, I think the MM would most likely use this to their advantage on the first couple of days in 2016 to squeeze all the shorts first before reversing it to continue down later in January. Thoughts?

BullBear52x wrote:Fear + Distribution are high buyers beware. Peace!

I am trend follower, mid term = Buy and short term = Sell. Monday I will pay attention to intraday reversal if the next sell the rip intraday failed then I will see bulls are serious, MM can do what they want I can do nothing until my trend setup tells me so. if bulls can hold on >2046 that will turn thing a little bullish, for now all short term chart pattern and indicators don't support bullish view.

Got it. Thanks BB52x.

BullBear52x wrote:

nikman wrote:Hi BB52x,

Not trying to be a bold contrarian, so won't be placing a buy yet... but with things so unilaterally slanted towards the negative/bearish side, I think the MM would most likely use this to their advantage on the first couple of days in 2016 to squeeze all the shorts first before reversing it to continue down later in January. Thoughts?

BullBear52x wrote:Fear + Distribution are high buyers beware. Peace!

I am trend follower, mid term = Buy and short term = Sell. Monday I will pay attention to intraday reversal if the next sell the rip intraday failed then I will see bulls are serious, MM can do what they want I can do nothing until my trend setup tells me so. if bulls can hold on >2046 that will turn thing a little bullish, for now all short term chart pattern and indicators don't support bullish view.

fehro wrote:

nikman wrote:Hi Fehro,
I would like to understand these charts and also would like to form the correct interpretations of the values they represent (meaning what does "rolling over to the sell side" mean here -- i.e., is it on an extreme end and so the rollover is imminent or it could be "few days" or "few weeks" (again the two may make a huge difference in one's decisions) away from rolling over. Could you provide some insight into all of this for someone who is new to it?

Thanks!

fehro wrote:T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm Rolling over again to the sell side.

Hey Nikman, as you probably know, no indicator gives a prefect signal, usually they lag, and they work in relation to different time frames.. some work better for near term.. next week, then others for weeks. As you can see some are better for near term turns, then the slower indicators catch-up.. if that makes sense. Also some show divergence, when the index and indicator diverge from either higher highs, or lower lows.. a trend change could be near swing wise, weeks/months again, depending on the "speed" of the indicator. Check each indicator, and re-read the definitions, I'm far from an expert on these but something to check to make sure you are on the "right side". Hope that helps.

Thanks Fehro. Wow! there is so much in here! It looks difficult to keep track of for me. Even though I can understand each one of these individually, the net/cumulative impact (and then there are "sentiment" factors that can change the VERY short-term trading -- including the AAII sentiment survey that you keep us posted on) is sometimes hard to keep track of especially if these signals are somewhat mixed. I guess, that's where Cobra helps us out with his simple to follow analysis (and he explains it thoroughly for layman like me).

fehro wrote:Crazy prediction for 2016 = egg on face ….. fwiw.

"IF" we cannot gain traction soon to the upside early this year, SPY 160ish (159.12) by Nov 8th - Election day.

Has nothing to do with moon phases.. just had this pattern set up on my moon chart. Mind the open gap if we verge into this region.. 153-153.50ish. Just something to keep in mind for 2016, mind the key levels for confirmation, failure. It sure does look pretty tho … maybe too pretty for the bears.

That'd pretty much be a valid Fib retracement and a good place for a P4 to bottom if you're doing EW.

DENT: The stock market will start to crash by February, if not sooner

http://www.businessinsider.com/dent-sto ... er-2015-12

nikman wrote:Hi Cobra,

When does the COT data become available for this past week? It will be interesting to see what happened on Thursday market closing when the market dropped big. Was the smart money buying (or covering)? I am curious because of your stance on the Thursday trading. In my observations, you are ALMOST always correct in thinking what is going on and the way the market behaved in the last 1 hour was a little unusual based on how you were leaning.

Thanks!

Cobra wrote:Smart money no huge buying so according to the case 2.) the pullback isn't over? The data is the last week's data though, because this week is a shortened week, so no COT data yet.



How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

I don't know when the data will be available.

The sharp drop in the last 15 minutes is very common if it's the last trading day of the year, so it doesn't mean anything. In fact, Sentimentrader has an interesting statistics: Dow down 1%+ on the last trading day of the year, the 1st 3 trading days of new year were always up with almost no draw back on close basis. So we'll know Monday. Overall, say me bull brainwashed, I don't trust any pullback anymore. You can see, every up was sharp but every down, mostly just was morning gap down, then spent the whole day consolidating. This market simply refuses to drop. Bulls are buying at every single step down!

Cobra wrote:

nikman wrote:Hi Cobra,

When does the COT data become available for this past week? It will be interesting to see what happened on Thursday market closing when the market dropped big. Was the smart money buying (or covering)? I am curious because of your stance on the Thursday trading. In my observations, you are ALMOST always correct in thinking what is going on and the way the market behaved in the last 1 hour was a little unusual based on how you were leaning.

Thanks!

Cobra wrote:Smart money no huge buying so according to the case 2.) the pullback isn't over? The data is the last week's data though, because this week is a shortened week, so no COT data yet.



How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

I don't know when the data will be available.

The sharp drop in the last 15 minutes is very common if it's the last trading day of the year, so it doesn't mean anything. In fact, Sentimentrader has an interesting statistics: Dow down 1%+ on the last trading day of the year, the 1st 3 trading days of new year were always up with almost no draw back on close basis. So we'll know Monday. Overall, say me bull brainwashed, I don't trust any pullback anymore. You can see, every up was sharp but every down, mostly just was morning gap down, then spent the whole day consolidating. This market simply refuses to drop. Bulls are buying at every single step down!

Thanks Cobra for sharing this insight. Very important to know all this if one is leaning bearish most of the time these days. Looking forward to the update on this data when you get it. Is it available as part of some subscription service?

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk

nikman wrote:

Cobra wrote:

nikman wrote:Hi Cobra,

When does the COT data become available for this past week? It will be interesting to see what happened on Thursday market closing when the market dropped big. Was the smart money buying (or covering)? I am curious because of your stance on the Thursday trading. In my observations, you are ALMOST always correct in thinking what is going on and the way the market behaved in the last 1 hour was a little unusual based on how you were leaning.

Thanks!

Cobra wrote:Smart money no huge buying so according to the case 2.) the pullback isn't over? The data is the last week's data though, because this week is a shortened week, so no COT data yet.



How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

I don't know when the data will be available.

The sharp drop in the last 15 minutes is very common if it's the last trading day of the year, so it doesn't mean anything. In fact, Sentimentrader has an interesting statistics: Dow down 1%+ on the last trading day of the year, the 1st 3 trading days of new year were always up with almost no draw back on close basis. So we'll know Monday. Overall, say me bull brainwashed, I don't trust any pullback anymore. You can see, every up was sharp but every down, mostly just was morning gap down, then spent the whole day consolidating. This market simply refuses to drop. Bulls are buying at every single step down!

Thanks Cobra for sharing this insight. Very important to know all this if one is leaning bearish most of the time these days. Looking forward to the update on this data when you get it. Is it available as part of some subscription service?

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk

COT data itself is for free. Just google COT.

Interesting that the ETF flows for last week (not including the 31st) show $1billion OUT OF SPY and $800million INTO the gorilla QQQ
[Data provider: FactSet]

Cobra wrote:

nikman wrote:

Cobra wrote:

nikman wrote:Hi Cobra,

When does the COT data become available for this past week? It will be interesting to see what happened on Thursday market closing when the market dropped big. Was the smart money buying (or covering)? I am curious because of your stance on the Thursday trading. In my observations, you are ALMOST always correct in thinking what is going on and the way the market behaved in the last 1 hour was a little unusual based on how you were leaning.

Thanks!

Cobra wrote:Smart money no huge buying so according to the case 2.) the pullback isn't over? The data is the last week's data though, because this week is a shortened week, so no COT data yet.



How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

I don't know when the data will be available.

The sharp drop in the last 15 minutes is very common if it's the last trading day of the year, so it doesn't mean anything. In fact, Sentimentrader has an interesting statistics: Dow down 1%+ on the last trading day of the year, the 1st 3 trading days of new year were always up with almost no draw back on close basis. So we'll know Monday. Overall, say me bull brainwashed, I don't trust any pullback anymore. You can see, every up was sharp but every down, mostly just was morning gap down, then spent the whole day consolidating. This market simply refuses to drop. Bulls are buying at every single step down!

Thanks Cobra for sharing this insight. Very important to know all this if one is leaning bearish most of the time these days. Looking forward to the update on this data when you get it. Is it available as part of some subscription service?

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk

COT data itself is for free. Just google COT.

Thanks. The last update was on 28th afternoon. And the next release is on Monday (tomorrow) afternoon. Will still need to plot it to get the graph that you post.

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk

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China Caixin Dec PMI continued to deteriorate in Decemberhttp://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news ... e804f33ea2

gappy wrote:China Caixin Dec PMI continued to deteriorate in December

Capture.PNG

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news ... e804f33ea2

Gappy, if Chinese economy is weak then why does Yen strengthen against USD? Is there a strong correlation between these two things? Thanks.

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk

nikman,

Hey, the PBOC has kept the Yuan pegged to the dollar. The BOJ has intervened in the Yen/Dollar trade countless times to keep the carry trade alive and their exports working. It is all central bank magic, not economics. It will work untill it doesn't and then the repressed market forces will be unleashed according to Taleb (Black Swan). 3,000 years ago the Greek playwrights showed us how the gods built people up until their pride and arrogance became too much and then they destroyed them. Nothing really changes, just the words we use.

nikman wrote:

gappy wrote:China Caixin Dec PMI continued to deteriorate in December

Capture.PNG

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news ... e804f33ea2

Gappy, if Chinese economy is weak then why does Yen strengthen against USD? Is there a strong correlation between these two things? Thanks.

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk

Nikman, when the fx traders use the news for knee jerk manipulation, it's just the band tuning up for the song they intend to play for the day. Less about anyones' economy, more about price manipulation/front running. Plans of criminals. When they have shown their hand, a reoccuring tendency might be seen. A weak usd/yen = weak us indices, that we have seen constantly through QE: carry trade impact. Weak China data hurts US corp profits prospects with firms involved over there obviously, a stronger yen buys more of that asset class at a discount. China gets to unload inflated dollar instruments too. I am just guessing. What is well known though, is we are at war. Call it "The Seccession from the Imperial Reserve Currency". The brics are sniping the "fed" dollar, and the "Wall St" dollar reflects it.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... all-street

Thanks. So it is really Yuan weakening against Yen that is making the USD weaken against Yen (because of the peg)? So a weak world economy will mean Yen becomes stronger against USD? Which will in turn make Japan's economy become weaker (stronger Yen = exports not working that well).

Trades with cats wrote:nikman,

Hey, the PBOC has kept the Yuan pegged to the dollar. The BOJ has intervened in the Yen/Dollar trade countless times to keep the carry trade alive and their exports working. It is all central bank magic, not economics. It will work untill it doesn't and then the repressed market forces will be unleashed according to Taleb (Black Swan). 3,000 years ago the Greek playwrights showed us how the gods built people up until their pride and arrogance became too much and then they destroyed them. Nothing really changes, just the words we use.

Thanks Gappy. This is great info. I am sure there is going to be intervention again from the BOJ on the currency.

gappy wrote:

nikman wrote:

gappy wrote:China Caixin Dec PMI continued to deteriorate in December

Capture.PNG

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news ... e804f33ea2

Gappy, if Chinese economy is weak then why does Yen strengthen against USD? Is there a strong correlation between these two things? Thanks.

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk

Nikman, when the fx traders use the news for knee jerk manipulation, it's just the band tuning up for the song they intend to play for the day. Less about anyones' economy, more about price manipulation/front running. Plans of criminals. When they have shown their hand, a reoccuring tendency might be seen. A weak usd/yen = weak us indices, that we have seen constantly through QE: carry trade impact. Weak China data hurts US corp profits prospects with firms involved over there obviously, a stronger yen buys more of that asset class at a discount. China gets to unload inflated dollar instruments too. I am just guessing. What is well known though, is we are at war. Call it "The Seccession from the Imperial Reserve Currency". The brics are sniping the "fed" dollar, and the "Wall St" dollar reflects it.

Capture.PNG

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... all-street

Datatraderpro: Block Trades Pages and Summary
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Circuit Breakers triggered China CSI drops 7% - closed for the session