01/22/2016 Live Update

[Wallstreetrader]

Very bearish the market !!!
Will be no surprise if today close in red

i would need to ask why say so?

Volatility !!!

[josephli]

everything looks bullish, some OB at the opening, probably needs consolidation around the high first.

[Wallstreetrader]

will see the 94 test, if, then will open position

[uempel]

Bullish Percentages are shooting up, so is oil:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candl ... BPENER|B|0

Very bearish the market !!!
Will be no surprise if today close in red

i would need to ask why say so?

Volatility !!!

[josephli]

Bullish Percentages are shooting up, so is oil:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candl ... BPENER|B|0

WTIC2.png

Very bearish the market !!!
Will be no surprise if today close in red

i would need to ask why say so?

Volatility !!!

can't agree more. everything pointing to a bull run.

[fehro]

/GC perking up..

[DellGriffith]

SPY 1 hour approached the upper bb for the first time in 6 days this morning.

[fehro]

SPX time to see if the bulls have the balls to hold long or will they get skittish - dabble small position short

[Wallstreetrader]

...

[Cobra]

I'm disappointed. now testing EMA20, should be some buyers here otherwise too bad.

[DellGriffith]

Well I have to think capitulation is still somewhere in the future. This should be another leg down to fresh lows on higher volume.

[Mr. BachNut]

Mr. B checking in.

I have marked January 20 as the end of the recent NYMO down cycle and have us in an up cycle going forward.
It may be early to call as we don't yet have a higher low, higher high in place yet, but there are good arguments that the NYMO low is in for now.
The low is damn low for one and in the turn zone. We also spent time in the oversold zone intraday on both 1/20 and 1/13.
Also, the 1/20 NYMO was just a few ticks below 1/13. We have, in effect, a NYMO double bottom, which is unusual.

Usual behavior after NYMO spends this much time in low land is for price to make a lower low in days ahead with a positive NYMO divergence.
I am not sure that will be the case this time. The big volume bars combined with a NYMO double bottom offer a case that the price low is in for now also.
Putting model dogma aside, 1/13 may have been the salient NYMO low and 1/20 may have been a barely not positively divergent retest, which came with lower price lows.
So, the downside work may be done... for now. That said, I can't rule out another market belly flop, particularly with VIX still elevated.

A couple of other thoughts:

1. eumpel's ellipses nailed this turn like a smart bomb. Nice!
I have tried to learn how to draw these myself with little success.
There is an art to it, and eumpel has got it. They don't work every time, but his signals merit attention.
I do believe that the market exhibits rhythms and geometries, and ellipse signaling reveals some of that.

2. I was never happy with the August low. The October 2014 low has long needed a retest, and it was hard to consider August 2015 a clean test.
The August decline was interrupted by circuit breakers, and I believe the September retest of the August low made its low after hours not during the day session.
So, day before yesterday (Wednesday), we experienced (finally) unbroken, open session trade that broke the October 2014 low intraday.
I think what happens now is really, really important. There is a lot of bear market chatter going around, and there is indeed considerable technical evidence that we have entered a bear market.
At the same time, there are also attributes that are also consistent with an important low. (sentiment for example).
One of the challenges of TA in an era of overactive central banks is that normal patterns and behaviors get interfered with.
While we may be in a bear market here, I am keeping an open mind to the possibility that we are just now completing a test of the October '14 low, and if Mr. Market gets a passing grade,
the bull could keep trotting along. Just a thought.

I am long and in good shape.
Last Friday, there was a VIX P Bar to 30.95.
I bought lows made after that was hit Wednesday, took a scale to go risk free and am letting the runner run.
P Bars and ellipses be the thing this week.
NYMO is already back to about the zero line.
I may do some hedge day trades next week to cope with corrective downdrafts, but plan is to try and hold long if things don't wilt.
Lot's of open gaps and untagged P Bars above.

Sorry for the really long post...

[Out of Bounds]

AXP is killing the DJIA
If the other indexes would let go of the D30, this rally could gain momentum

[DellGriffith]

Bachnut we all like your posts its great!

[Mr. BachNut]

One more thing.

Last weeks Friday close is SPX 1880.33
It is perhaps mission critical for bulls to put in a higher close today.
We want to see what traders are willing to take home for the weekend.

[QED]

One more thing.

Last weeks Friday close is SPX 1880.33
It is perhaps mission critical for bulls to put in a higher close today.
We want to see what traders are willing to take home for the weekend.

Mr. BachNut - Thanks! Your market thoughts and insight are appreciated!!!

[fehro]

weeklies.. TLT not pretty.. inverted hammer/ gravestone others trying to hammer. NDX/COMPQ never did take out the summer lows, or Oct 2014 lows.. while RUT/DJ-20 Transports.. well below. USO trying to hammer.. Hours to go yet for the candle close.

[finman66]

Mr. B checking in.

I have marked January 20 as the end of the recent NYMO down cycle and have us in an up cycle going forward.
It may be early to call as we don't yet have a higher low, higher high in place yet, but there are good arguments that the NYMO low is in for now.
The low is damn low for one and in the turn zone. We also spent time in the oversold zone intraday on both 1/20 and 1/13.
Also, the 1/20 NYMO was just a few ticks below 1/13. We have, in effect, a NYMO double bottom, which is unusual.

Usual behavior after NYMO spends this much time in low land is for price to make a lower low in days ahead with a positive NYMO divergence.
I am not sure that will be the case this time. The big volume bars combined with a NYMO double bottom offer a case that the price low is in for now also.
Putting model dogma aside, 1/13 may have been the salient NYMO low and 1/20 may have been a barely not positively divergent retest, which came with lower price lows.
So, the downside work may be done... for now. That said, I can't rule out another market belly flop, particularly with VIX still elevated.

A couple of other thoughts:

1. eumpel's ellipses nailed this turn like a smart bomb. Nice!
I have tried to learn how to draw these myself with little success.
There is an art to it, and eumpel has got it. They don't work every time, but his signals merit attention.
I do believe that the market exhibits rhythms and geometries, and ellipse signaling reveals some of that.

2. I was never happy with the August low. The October 2014 low has long needed a retest, and it was hard to consider August 2015 a clean test.
The August decline was interrupted by circuit breakers, and I believe the September retest of the August low made its low after hours not during the day session.
So, day before yesterday (Wednesday), we experienced (finally) unbroken, open session trade that broke the October 2014 low intraday.
I think what happens now is really, really important. There is a lot of bear market chatter going around, and there is indeed considerable technical evidence that we have entered a bear market.
At the same time, there are also attributes that are also consistent with an important low. (sentiment for example).
One of the challenges of TA in an era of overactive central banks is that normal patterns and behaviors get interfered with.
While we may be in a bear market here, I am keeping an open mind to the possibility that we are just now completing a test of the October '14 low, and if Mr. Market gets a passing grade,
the bull could keep trotting along. Just a thought.

I am long and in good shape.
Last Friday, there was a VIX P Bar to 30.95.
I bought lows made after that was hit Wednesday, took a scale to go risk free and am letting the runner run.
P Bars and ellipses be the thing this week.
NYMO is already back to about the zero line.
I may do some hedge day trades next week to cope with corrective downdrafts, but plan is to try and hold long if things don't wilt.
Lot's of open gaps and untagged P Bars above.

Sorry for the really long post...

Great info and observations Mr. BachNut .............. I don't mind the long post

[K447]

Sorry for the really long post...

Great info and observations Mr. BachNut .............. I don't mind the long post

Agree, excellent reading

[Wallstreetrader]

HS -> 1880