Cobra's Market View

nikman wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:With this type O chart, leave it to the hero to counter trend.

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Hi BB52x, counter trend would mean shorting this likely midterm Buy rally? Are your charts signaling that the trend might be changing as there are several bottoming signs popping up everywhere. Can you please explain your charts for people new to TA lingo. Thanks.

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see my blog update what's in my piggy brain.

RELATIVE STRENGTH vs SPY
Rotation is bringing Transports and Industrials back into sharp focus
Is that enough to lift SPY?
No, SPY needs more help than that…
WEEKLY CHART

“As of February 10th, the S&P 500 was down around 9.4% year-to-date and 83.6% of the stocks in the S&P 1500 were DOWN year-to-date (1254 out of 1500). The S&P 1500 includes the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400 and the S&P Small-Cap 600. This means just 16.4% were up.”
[Art Hill]

Who were the biggest bears this week ?
Here are the worst performers of all the OEX-100 large-cap stocks (week-to-date)

Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index Energy - still says distress in oil land

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BUSCEN:IND

Most of those corporate BUYBACKS of the last few years are losers now
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/companie ... 18493.html
Most of the buybacks were funded by debt

Two more good reasons for the rally in gold, silver:

Observations for the weekend:

I am pretty focused on going long SPY a lot because (in most of my trading systems) SPY is very oversold. That means long setups appear frequently. It seems to be working out. My only errors have been in not trusting my system.

It is very possible we have completed an ABC correction with a double bottom on thursday, with the start of a new rally on friday. I left a decent runner to capture it (if it occurs). ABCDE corrections DO occur (they are just rare).

Daily SPY has now gone 67 consecutive days without hitting / approaching the upper bollinger band. The second longest streak of all time. It is now just 15 days from the all time record of 82 days, set during the 2008 credit crisis. Because of the market holiday this Monday (2/15/2016), it will reach 82 days on March 7th.

I am considering moving my trade history to a simple pastebin page. I can just link it (using my profile). A link will show up under my avatar.

Can anyone explain this? Not implying bearish but certainly was not a strong Friday.

Cobra, The oil news (rumor?) and the OEX this coming week pre-empted the continued move down?? We will know shortly when the ES futures open up. And on Tuesday when the cash market opens up - just like you said in your report.

All 3 evidences you present on a huge UP day are very bearish, especially if this is a major bottom (and a retest of the major LOW) then this should not have been happening.

Cobra wrote:Can anyone explain this. Not implying bearish but certainly was not a strong Friday.

Thanks BB52x. Short-term=BUY and mid-term is SELL. Got it. No need to be a hero to counter-trend the short-term (i.e., going short) and no reason to go LONG yet for the mid-term. Your statement - CASH is a position.

BullBear52x wrote:

nikman wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:With this type O chart, leave it to the hero to counter trend.

1.PNG

2.PNG

Hi BB52x, counter trend would mean shorting this likely midterm Buy rally? Are your charts signaling that the trend might be changing as there are several bottoming signs popping up everywhere. Can you please explain your charts for people new to TA lingo. Thanks.

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk

see my blog update what's in my piggy brain.

Cobra san,
This has been the phenomena, somehow, the last 6 years of bull market. You keep chugging higher on the spy by simply rallying a "few" of the heavyweights in that index. Rest all are just going down the drain. One of the indicators I use is the range between high/low for all stocks. That indicator has already crossed below 2008 low. Meaning, internals are much worse than the lowest level or crash of 2008 already. Yet, somehow price isn't showing that. Which way we go is anybody's guess. Some might argue we bottomed after this, while others might say price has a long way to catch up.
Just my 2c

Cobra wrote:Can anyone explain this? Not implying bearish but certainly was not a strong Friday.

4 day. Rounded top w/ a nice inverted cup % handle. Alot of volatile pumps and fades, but the move measures to 1700, reinforcing Fehro's measure on my diamond top chart. Oil: A shooting war with Turkey/Middle East turmoil, will pump oil and Dow, but when everyone accepts the reality that its diminishing momentus utility in a world economy at stall speed adds no premium to its value, it will fade. Dollar: Day of the Deep State enforced Uncle Buck reserve currency world mandate is dying on the vine. May even be irradiated. Over bought/oversold: Used to be indicative of a stock's percieved value to earn a ROI, now determined by sloshes in the Banksters punchbowl algos. Market breadth: It's different this time, the psychology of consensus for the market life vest buoyancy has sprung a leak. Some say it's a cycle. I say it's the realization that the reach for yield don't feed the bulldog anymore. Zirp/Nirp to stave off debtruptcy offers no value except to help Gold to base higher here. A desperate PPT may retest the old high this year, but the currency war will ensure the yearly candle is black as the Ace of Spades. That's my bearish story and I'm sticking with it. Only gains to be had this year will be by day trading with the Cobra. Vote for him.

jason_70 wrote:Cobra san,
This has been the phenomena, somehow, the last 6 years of bull market. You keep chugging higher on the spy by simply rallying a "few" of the heavyweights in that index. Rest all are just going down the drain. One of the indicators I use is the range between high/low for all stocks. That indicator has already crossed below 2008 low. Meaning, internals are much worse than the lowest level or crash of 2008 already. Yet, somehow price isn't showing that. Which way we go is anybody's guess. Some might argue we bottomed after this, while others might say price has a long way to catch up.
Just my 2c

Cobra wrote:Can anyone explain this? Not implying bearish but certainly was not a strong Friday.

You mean this? Can you explain more about your range between high/low? Thanks.

So far SPX has follow august double bottoming script back in august by exact mirroring. However, intermarket analysis has suggest otherwise in swing time frame. forex movement and trreasury suggest Jan low "should" be decisively breached.
meanwhile, my SPX system suggest a least one leg down is missing. last it did so was Jan 12-14. note, VIX contract expired on Jan.20th.
that said, I am bull-biased. I am skeptical about the double bottom, but bottom should be closed. wait and see time.

The entire composition of the indicator is extremely complex. But the basic premise is how the high beta stocks which actually move the market perform relative to their own historical performance. The minimum requirement for this is the relation of current stock to its 52 week high/low and then its fib values and then moving averages. The math is very complex, but overall it gives a clear picture of the underlying internals "as they relate to today" with historical perspective.
This indicator is well below its 2008 low and is at ATL as of today. What can I do with this info and is it useful for my ST trades? NO. But it does give an idea of how the construct of the market looks "today". How one uses and interprets it is again based on his/her own understanding/biases.

Cobra wrote:

jason_70 wrote:Cobra san,
This has been the phenomena, somehow, the last 6 years of bull market. You keep chugging higher on the spy by simply rallying a "few" of the heavyweights in that index. Rest all are just going down the drain. One of the indicators I use is the range between high/low for all stocks. That indicator has already crossed below 2008 low. Meaning, internals are much worse than the lowest level or crash of 2008 already. Yet, somehow price isn't showing that. Which way we go is anybody's guess. Some might argue we bottomed after this, while others might say price has a long way to catch up.
Just my 2c

Cobra wrote:Can anyone explain this? Not implying bearish but certainly was not a strong Friday.

You mean this? Can you explain more about your range between high/low? Thanks.

jason_70 wrote:The entire composition of the indicator is extremely complex. But the basic premise is how the high beta stocks which actually move the market perform relative to their own historical performance. The minimum requirement for this is the relation of current stock to its 52 week high/low and then its fib values and then moving averages. The math is very complex, but overall it gives a clear picture of the underlying internals "as they relate to today" with historical perspective.
This indicator is well below its 2008 low and is at ATL as of today. What can I do with this info and is it useful for my ST trades? NO. But it does give an idea of how the construct of the market looks "today". How one uses and interprets it is again based on his/her own understanding/biases.

Cobra wrote:

jason_70 wrote:Cobra san,
This has been the phenomena, somehow, the last 6 years of bull market. You keep chugging higher on the spy by simply rallying a "few" of the heavyweights in that index. Rest all are just going down the drain. One of the indicators I use is the range between high/low for all stocks. That indicator has already crossed below 2008 low. Meaning, internals are much worse than the lowest level or crash of 2008 already. Yet, somehow price isn't showing that. Which way we go is anybody's guess. Some might argue we bottomed after this, while others might say price has a long way to catch up.
Just my 2c

Cobra wrote:Can anyone explain this? Not implying bearish but certainly was not a strong Friday.

You mean this? Can you explain more about your range between high/low? Thanks.

OK, thanks.

USDJPY recent down move has exceeded short term and swing term 100% MM, and is shy off key 110 support. more downward movement expected.
USD struggle on key fib and channel support. swing term 100%MM has been exceeded. bearish-leaning.

No, Thank you for all the hard work and awesome analysis.
On the same lines, stocks < 30RS (high beta that I track) has not even touched the mark that they did in Oct of 2014, let alone reaching the mark touched in Aug 2015. Not really sure what to make of that other than the fact that this move down of nearly 30 handles (spy) has been extremely orderly (already known to everyone). What happens next is anybody's guess

Cobra wrote:

jason_70 wrote:The entire composition of the indicator is extremely complex. But the basic premise is how the high beta stocks which actually move the market perform relative to their own historical performance. The minimum requirement for this is the relation of current stock to its 52 week high/low and then its fib values and then moving averages. The math is very complex, but overall it gives a clear picture of the underlying internals "as they relate to today" with historical perspective.
This indicator is well below its 2008 low and is at ATL as of today. What can I do with this info and is it useful for my ST trades? NO. But it does give an idea of how the construct of the market looks "today". How one uses and interprets it is again based on his/her own understanding/biases.

Cobra wrote:

jason_70 wrote:Cobra san,
This has been the phenomena, somehow, the last 6 years of bull market. You keep chugging higher on the spy by simply rallying a "few" of the heavyweights in that index. Rest all are just going down the drain. One of the indicators I use is the range between high/low for all stocks. That indicator has already crossed below 2008 low. Meaning, internals are much worse than the lowest level or crash of 2008 already. Yet, somehow price isn't showing that. Which way we go is anybody's guess. Some might argue we bottomed after this, while others might say price has a long way to catch up.
Just my 2c

Cobra wrote:Can anyone explain this? Not implying bearish but certainly was not a strong Friday.

You mean this? Can you explain more about your range between high/low? Thanks.

OK, thanks.