03/25/2016 Weekend Update

[fehro]

yellen speak next week, what do you guys expect to hear from her?

She's not the only one speaking.. next week. .. could get the "good cop bad cop" routine… http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

[BullBear52x]

yellen speak next week, what do you guys expect to hear from her?

She's not the only one speaking.. next week. .. could get the "good cop bad cop" routine… http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Here is my yield curve, rising in short term rate will take us into recession, top in the market, or we can have our cake and eat it too.

[tsf]

Past predictions of Bear Crashes

Source: Slope of Hope, March 27 2016

[tsf]

Source: seeitmarket
See It Market March 24, 2016

S&P 500 Bollinger Bands Squeeze: A Massive Move Is Brewing
The S&P 500's upside explosion since February 11th has squeezed the shorts dry,
but there's another squeeze unfolding that's leading me to believe an even bigger move is on deck for the stock market.

[tsf]

Source: MktOutperform
Charlie Bilello, CMT March 20, 2016

S&P 500: 93.4% of stocks above their 50-day Moving Avg, near the highest on record (data going back to '02). $SPX

[daytradingES]

8:03 AM 3/28/2016

The problem is that all it takes is for one or two member nations to avoid the meeting and thus make any attempt at supply cuts moot.

And, as noted previously, should even one oil producing nation snub the meeting it is all for nothing. As Bloomberg explained last week, "The other 11 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have agreed to meet in the Qatari capital on April 17, officials from the respective countries have said. The absence of Iran and Libya, which are determined to restore supplies shuttered by conflict and sanctions, means any accord is unlikely to be effective, according to Commerzbank AG."

"The meeting is turning more and more into a farce,” analysts at Commerzbank led by Eugen Weinberg said in a report. “It is hardly surprising that Libya is not interested in the Doha meeting. Like Iran, it first wants to increase output and then talk about a freeze."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-2 ... ec-meeting
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.23%) are up +0.28% after last Friday's data showed the U.S. economy expanded more than expected in Q1. European markets are closed for Easter Monday. Also, May crude is up +0.51%, which is giving a boost to energy producing stocks. San Francisco Fed President Williams said that global developments were "the real issue" for policy makers as they decide on the pace of rate hikes. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.77%, Hong Kong and Australia closed for holiday, China -0.73%, Taiwan -0.17%, Singapore -0.60%, South Korea +0.07%, India -1.46%. China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 1-week low after the China Q1 Beige Book stated that the Chinese economy was still "emanating weakness." Japan's Nikkei Stock index rallied to a 1-week high after the Sankei newspaper reported that Prime Minister Abe plans to delay the scheduled April 2017 consumption-tax increase to 10% from 8%.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.01%) is up +0.01% at a 1-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.04%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.42% at a 1-week high.

Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.15%) are down -6 ticks.

San Francisco Fed President Williams said the U.S. economy is doing "quite well" and "the real issue is the global financial and economic developments" for policy makers as they deliberate on the pace of interest rate increases.

U.S. Q4 GDP was revised upward to 1.4% (q/q annualized) from 1.0% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of no change at 1.0%. Q4 personal consumption was revised upward to 2.4% from the previously reported 2.0%.

ECB Governing Council member Knot said that further expansion of the ECB asset purchase program will lead to increased tensions over the prohibition of monetary financing as quantitative easing leads to "higher risks of undesirable side effects like bubbles, an unhealthy search for yield, a rolling over of problematic loans, increasing wealth inequality, and an addiction to low interest rates."

The Q1 China Beige Book, published by CBB International, stated that China's economy is still "emanating weakness" as "the data show that firms first stopped borrowing, then cut spending, and our now becoming allergic to hiring." Also, revenue growth steadied, capital expenditure fell, job growth slid to a 4-year low and retail outperformed business spending.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/28/2016
US 0830 ET Feb personal spending expected +0.1%, Jan +0.5%. Feb personal income expected +0.1%, Jan +0.5%.
0830 ET Feb PCE deflator expected -0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y. Feb core PCE deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, Jan +0.3% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
1000 ET Feb pending home sales expected +1.1% m/m, Jan -2.5% m/m and -0.9% y/y.
1030 ET Mar Dallas Fed manufacturing activity expected +5.8 to -26.0, Feb +2.8 to -31.8.
1100 ET USDA weekly grain export inspections.
1300 ET Treasury auctions $26 billion of 2-year T-notes.
JPN 1930 ET Japan Feb jobless rate expected unch at 3.2%. Feb job-to-applicant ratio expected +0.01 to 1.29, Jan 1.28.
1930 ET Japan Feb overall household spending expected -1.5% y/y, Jan -3.1% y/y.
1950 ET Japan Feb retail sales expected +0.5% y/y, Jan -0.4% m/m and -0.2% y/y.
EUR n/a Eurozone markets closed for Easter Monday.
UK n/a UK markets closed for Easter Monday.
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US consumer spending posts scant February increase
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER - AP - 16 mins ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. consumer spending posted a tiny gain for the third straight month in February while income growth slowed sharply

Consumer spending edged up 0.1 percent in February, matching similar lackluster gains in January and December, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Personal incomes rose a modest 0.2 percent in February after a much stronger 0.5 percent rise in January. The slowdown reflected a 0.1 percent drop in wages and salaries, the first drop in this key category since September.