Cobra's Market View

Greetings all.

The NYMO cycle is down?
The NYMO low from a week ago Thursday has not been beat yet.
We are either in the process of putting in a higher low now or a further drop is yet to come to make another lower low.
A close above Tuesday's NYMO high and preferably zero would suggest that an up cycle has begun.

As you can see, we are starting to get a pinch between a declining tops line and the rising 50 day MA and middle keltner band.
Whichever busts, probably selects the respective target set marked.

OPEX is next week. So, there is a bullish bias beyond today/Monday.
Occasionally though, OPEX goes bear, and when it does, it really does.
So, up cycle probable but keep an open mind.

One of the odd things this week is that Put/Call ratios have been quite elevated comparable to tradeable market lows.
Indexes are down a bit, but this is not like a significant low.
So, something is up. I can imagine both a big squeeze or a big flush as scenarios ahead.
Yet again... I am clueless... but I think there is a juicy move in the bushes.

I am flat.
I had some short on early in the week, but Tuesday's rip shook me out for a loss.
My signals at the top were conflicting, so I didn't reload, which is too bad for me.
Seems like pick your poison time, and I don't have an edge at the moment, perhaps late today or early next week will give me something to go on.

Thank you Gappy! I did not open the chart and because of the color scheme that you use, I did not even realize that it was the USD/JPY chart. I am glad I asked the question.

Now that I have seen that chart, it looks like an explosive move up for USD/JPY. Even though that is good for Japan's and Germany's stock indices, it may not be so great for Oil and emerging countries. So where does that leave us with the US indices (SPX and /ES)?
Thoughts?

gappy wrote:

nikman wrote:Hi Gappy,

Is Coppock at 0 now? Since when? I thought as of end of April it was still -1 or something? And the market has been down since?

Tight bolly can mean the move in either direction. Right?

Thanks.

gappy wrote:4 hour. Bottom diamond pinch @ the cloud/23.6. Tight bolly/Coppock 0 bounce. Buckle up next week.

Capture.PNG

Front run bird watching today. Vote Cobra. glta

Nikman, that's 0 Coppock on the 4 hour USD/JPY chart. On daily spy it went negative on Cinco de Mayo (may 5). Yes sir, tight bolly means it is "coiling" for a good move , yes, up OR down. Lots of data being reported next week. And G7 meets the week after.

triangle it is..

sell the rip spot, no new LOD from the next sell, bears are not all that impressive. time to change camp.

possible higher low. i.e. the low was in.

Hi Cobra,

Could you please re-post or explain the trading reversals set-up on the current 15-minute chart. I cannot find it from your earlier posts. I need to see what to look for. I also understand it can fail too, but I promise I will learn it this time for future purposes.
Thank you!

Cobra wrote:possible higher low. i.e. the low was in.

[quote="nikman"]Thank you Gappy! I did not open the chart and because of the color scheme that you use, I did not even realize that it was the USD/JPY chart. I am glad I asked the question.

Now that I have seen that chart, it looks like an explosive move up for USD/JPY. Even though that is good for Japan's and Germany's stock indices, it may not be so great for Oil and emerging countries. So where does that leave us with the US indices (SPX and /ES)?
Thoughts?

They move in the same way often enough to be noticed and traded on.It's funny you mention Japan and Germany, they are getting very chummy and expanding the military.

Ok. Thanks for posting the correlation chart. So that means SPX up for at least the initial part until USD/JPY resumes its move down after the G7 or when US economic data becomes weak again. Yellen does not want a strong USD, so I guess the equities markets will remain a currency play for the remainder of the year. Thank you.

gappy wrote:

nikman wrote:Thank you Gappy! I did not open the chart and because of the color scheme that you use, I did not even realize that it was the USD/JPY chart. I am glad I asked the question.

Now that I have seen that chart, it looks like an explosive move up for USD/JPY. Even though that is good for Japan's and Germany's stock indices, it may not be so great for Oil and emerging countries. So where does that leave us with the US indices (SPX and /ES)?
Thoughts?

They move in the same way often enough to be noticed and traded on.

Capture.PNG

It's funny you mention Japan and Germany, they are getting very chummy and expanding the military.

gappy wrote:Japan and Germany, they are getting very chummy and expanding the military.

Hmmmm ... I think I have seen that movie before …

QED wrote:

gappy wrote:Japan and Germany, they are getting very chummy and expanding the military.

Hmmmm ... I think I have seen that movie before …

Turns out to be a range day, lucky if I can make 3 handles day trade today. will see. it's not going to be smooth today.

BullBear52x wrote:Turns out to be a range day, lucky if I can make 3 handles day trade today. will see. it's not going to be smooth today.

yup.. but mind the possible 20 point move sPX 5m green triangle break near EOD.. or more like the *15 ish - NOT 20 point gap on Monday

2 chance ? No magic number

/ES range that I am trading today will be between 53-63, anything inside good luck, out side that a trend is to continue, lets play for break out on either side from here. game plan has changed. Oy,

intraday trending clockworks back to buy. let see next buy.

SPX hourly struggles inverted hammer, at resistance of sorts.. VIX tho.. looks weak - ish

reverse to buy @ 57.5

/ES reverse to sell set at 56.5

I hate to bite 1 handle but that's what it is.

reversed to sell. I am sitting until I make money from here.going for a walk now. will be back.

Time to take a walk