09/02/2016 Live Update

[fehro]

Rate hike odds fell hard earlier today. Now Goldman says da Boyz got it wrong, that the jobs number was just high enough to keep September hike on the table.

fwiw.. my messy chart on long term FEDRATE increases vs gold/bonds/USdollar/SPX .. etc. etc.

[Trades with cats]

Last Friday I guessed semi-wrong on the Baker Hughes rig count. I thought trend up would continue, instead it was flat, BUT it grew 3 in the sweet spot (The Permian Basin). Today I am clueless. Media Narrative is mixed. Putin calling for a freeze, big surge in VLCC's headed for CHina but probably trumping everything is the Dollar gyrations. My bottom line is Winter is Coming and there is no short rocket fuel left to ignite so we drift until we get some really bad inventory numbers sometime in the next several weeks.

[Trades with cats]

Rate Hike-
1. Why crash stock market just before an election? What is the crisis after sitting on hands all these years?
2. These people are not slow witted. Explain how over 300,000 new jobs flipping burgers while family supporting wage jobs are flat to declining means a robust economy.
3. If we raise everyone else gets a silent devaluation and we enter a recession even sooner.
4. Real answer is watch the Fed balance sheet, that is the only thing that counts. All this rate talk is right out of Penn and Teller teaching you how to divert the audience attention.

[fehro]

SPX ..so close 20d 2179.73

[Cobra]

testing ema20 for the 1st time, let's see any buyers here. so far boring day, we stuck in the range.

[fehro]

SPX tags slips under 20d 2179.66 SPY not yet 20d 218.18

[nikman]

pullback a little sharp maybe h2 is needed to buy the dip.

Hi Cobra, could you please guide us on the H2 buy as and when it triggers?
Thanks!

Sent from my SM-G920T using Tapatalk

[fehro]

ummm? did we miss a pbar? 217.01 Low? Cobra's chart above shows 218.23 low.

[fehro]

ummm? did we miss a pbar? 217.01 Low? Cobra's chart above shows 218.23 low.

the reason I checked.. was to see what stockcharts LOD was.. to confirm the 20d tag on T2000

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:05 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/09 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

SPX nibble.. small short here.. cautiously.

SPX 20d 2179.89 SPY 20d 218.18 looking for a tag.. breaks below them.. could see more down.. possible gap fills

SPX .. wedge retest… cover more shorts here… possible support

[tsf]

Source: @hedgopia
Has Fed moved interest rate just before election? It has.

[MrMiyagi]

spyX

[q2model]

A Bored Investor Is a Dangerous Thing

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/09/ ... ous-thing/

[fehro]

SPX filling Tuesday's gap.. testing Wed highs.. support again here.

[fehro]

SPX 5m bullish falling wedge.. for the 20d stick save close.. keeps bulls and bears in suspense with the close.. and the weekly doji. fwiw

[Trades with cats]

ES I am showing a double bottom at 2172 with a lower high at 2176.25 . As active as today has been I'm thinking it will take an hour to get all the way up there and test that breakout level.

[Trades with cats]

Well I sure got that wrong, ES moving up smartly to test the prior high.

[Cobra]

double bottom?

[Out of Bounds]

SPY daily.

Look at these crazy candles and wicks.