10/28/2016 Live Update

[Mr. BachNut]

Friday BachNut Pre-election edition.

The NYMO cycle is up?
October 13 set a nice NYMO low.
However, as NYMO moves to the zero line can merely be corrective, the current up cycle looks flawed.
We have had 2 NYMO closes above the zero line, but they are pretty pathetic. The second one may have been just a retest.
So, I have marked the last down cycle with a thin line as further action may prove it is still under way.
Seasonally, we are now among some of the most bullish days of the year. So, the up cycle may yet confirm.
Sorry to not be more definitive, but the signaling is not definitive.

Big picture, I am leaning to think that the top for this market is in, possible post election relief not withstanding.
The keltner bands have turned down, and the top band is down after trying to rebound.
A rising bottoms line from the January low has been pierced this morning. A close below that line would not be helpful.
A series of declining highs is clear.
The overall price picture has a rounded top quality.
For mulling over, I have extended some possible target lines from various open gaps from earlier in the year.
I would not be inclined to mark them as targets until we seem some action at the 200 day moving average.
Let's see how things go after the election though. A lot can change.

I am short on a tight leash. (correction - stopped out a little while ago as I was writing... per below will probably reposition higher.) (groans...)
I was long earlier to align with a NYMO up cycle but closed it out down a bit.
I flipped based on other setups and the NYMO weakness.
There is an open gap below this morning's low.
However, given seasonality, proximity to support and the general chop we have been experiencing, there are potential rips in this mess.
I'll be chained to the monitor and will be poised to stop out and reposition as long as the models say so.
Unless something happens, I'll guess no yummy trend until after election day. So, key for me is to hold onto money in the churn but stay engaged.
Mr. Market will get going on his schedule not mine.

[Trades with cats]

Headed out of town for a long weekend and I don't post from my phone. Pretzel Logic has a really great paragraph up on his free site today that I really wanted to share. It is a re-write of Rod Serling's intro to the old twilight zone TV series, a true cultural icon.

"There is a fifth dimension, beyond that which is known to man. It is a dimension as vast as Ben Bernanke's money supply, and as timeless as Hillary Clinton's pantsuits. It is the middle ground between July and November, between hopelessness and frustration, and it lies between the pit of roughly 2114 SPX and the summit of 2193. This is the dimension of lost time premium, of random stop grabs, and of traders screaming at computers. It is an area which we call: The Chop Zone."

Don't eat too much candy and for those who go trick or drinking, absolutely no cheep scotch!

[BullBear52x]

be nimble, wait for new buy.

[KENA]

Liquidity has taken a good drop.BPSPX,BPNYSE and most other BP's have come dn and are in a decline. Looks like something will happen soon. Waite and see.

[K447]

... Pretzel Logic has a really great paragraph up on his free site ...

http://www.pretzelcharts.com/

Not the music album ...
http://pretzellogic.ca/Pretzel_Logic/Welcome.html

[Cobra]

if a trend day, the dip will be bought here but if it's vacuum up and down day, no buy here. key time, let's see.

[fehro]

SPX just weak.. can't even get to 20w/20d.. maybe end of day try.. dabbled short.

[BullBear52x]

Clockworks, until it fails.......

[BullBear52x]

weak bulls.

[fehro]

October surprise anyone? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-2 ... ult-point?
as per yesterday.. /ES and everything on key support.. DB implodes.. huge gaps as per yesterday… the question is as always "IF" and when.

[BullBear52x]

need to see new HOD from here.

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:15 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/10 ... ay-update/

[BullBear52x]

no new HOD, the die-hard bears will challenge papa bull. so need to see clean move up from here.

[Shaishen]

no new HOD, the die-hard bears will challenge papa bull. so need to see clean move up from here.

VolProf: price presently on dPOC around ES 2133, suggests upside to ~ 2141 but might revisit 2131 first to "fill in" Around 2141 is also resist area on 1 hour chart.
My2cts

`

[BullBear52x]

no new HOD, the die-hard bears will challenge papa bull. so need to see clean move up from here.

VolProf: price presently on dPOC around ES 2133, suggests upside to ~ 2141 but might revisit 2131 first to "fill in" Around 2141 is also resist area on 1 hour chart.
My2cts

`

This one first, I am looking to reverse to bear camp any time now very close to Come2papa sell the rip on short term.

[Shaishen]

no new HOD, the die-hard bears will challenge papa bull. so need to see clean move up from here.

VolProf: price presently on dPOC around ES 2133, suggests upside to ~ 2141 but might revisit 2131 first to "fill in" Around 2141 is also resist area on 1 hour chart.
My2cts

`

This one first, I am looking to reverse to bear camp any time now very close to Come2papa sell the rip on short term.

sth should happen soon, almost 2 hours in a 3.5 point range. Yesterday we were for 2 hours in a 4.5 point range before we drifted down.
Price above dVWAP and Mid makes me hesitant to be on bear side - will see

`

[BullBear52x]

[fehro]

buckle up… FBI re-opens investigation into Hillary..

[BullBear52x]

Bull abort, bulls abort, beep beep beep

[Cobra]

guess still is the same vacuum down then perhaps vacuum up later?